{"id":108791,"date":"2026-05-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=108791"},"modified":"2026-05-12T04:06:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T04:06:24","slug":"saudis-fiscal-resilience-could-face-a-reality-check-when-hormuz-reopens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/12\/saudis-fiscal-resilience-could-face-a-reality-check-when-hormuz-reopens\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi\u2019s fiscal resilience could face a reality check when Hormuz reopens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The fiscal math is getting harder for Riyadh.<\/strong> Saudi Arabia is heading into the rest of 2026 with an SAR 126 bn hole punched into its books in 1Q alone \u2014 the result of a 20% y-o-y jump in spending colliding with oil revenues that are quietly drifting in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The official line is that this is a deficit by design <\/strong>\u2014 a countercyclical wager that the Kingdom can keep pouring money into gigaprojects and military commitments while Hormuz stays closed and Brent trades on a war premium. The question for the next three quarters is whether the design holds, or whether 1Q turns out to have been the easy part.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The base case the government is selling:<\/strong> A full-year deficit of around SAR 165 bn, or 3.3% of GDP, with non-oil revenues continuing the climb they\u2019ve been on \u2014 VAT, corporate taxes, tourism receipts, fees \u2014 and spending pulling back across 2Q to 4Q.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The early signals on the non-oil side are real: <\/strong>E-commerce sales were up 42.6% in 1Q, point-of-sale transactions hit SAR 189.7 bn, and non-oil exports surged 17.5% in January and February. But the spending side is where the plan starts to wobble.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The Brent question won\u2019t go away.<\/strong> As of last week, the benchmark is hovering just above USD 100 \/ bbl \u2014 off its end-of-April high of USD 126. Hormuz has been largely closed since late February, and a chunk of today\u2019s price is a straight-up war premium \u2014 the kind that evaporates the moment tankers start moving freely again.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Here\u2019s where it matters for Riyadh:<\/strong> Our fiscal breakeven now sits near USD 85 \/ bbl, well above the UAE and Qatar at USD 43-45. \u201cSaudi is the GCC member most exposed to where prices settle once Hormuz reopens,\u201d Celine Bteish, geoeconomist and former IMF analyst, tells EnterpriseAM. If prices land above USD 85, the Kingdom rebuilds buffers and the spending engine keeps humming.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>If they don\u2019t, the recalibration that\u2019s already underway gets sharper.<\/strong> More selective capital allocation, heavier debt issuance, and a continued push to shift financing off the sovereign balance sheet and onto global investors via capital market deepening, Bteish says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The offset from current high oil prices is a clock, not a cushion. <\/strong>\u201cHigher oil revenues will not last long. Once the strait opens, oil prices will begin to decline gradually, so that offset will slowly lose momentum throughout the year,\u201d MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Add to that Opec+\u2019s diminished pricing power after the <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/04\/opec-raises-june-output-as-the-cartels-old-order-quietly-unravels\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UAE\u2019s exit<\/a><\/strong>, and the read-across is that crude can support the books in the short to medium term, but not for longer, Al Gaood says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The logistics story is more reassuring. <\/strong>Saudi has spent the war quietly building dual-route resilience. Red Sea flows out of Yanbu ramped up to roughly 4 mn bbl \/ d by mid-March from 770k bbl \/ d in early 2026, giving the Kingdom a credible alternative to Hormuz and a stronger pitch to buyers regardless of how the strait situation resolves. That matters for market share when global demand rotates back to normal patterns.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The spending problem is real though.<\/strong> Expenditure in 1Q ran 20% higher y-o-y at SAR 387 bn, with military outlays alone up 26% to SAR 64.7 bn. The 2026 budget is built on a public sector efficiency drive, but gigaprojects and defense commitments are pulling in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>\u201cIf oil softens and spending overshoots, the deficit could approach SAR 250 bn<\/strong>, similar to the 2025 outcome,\u201d Pepperstone Market Strategist Ahmed Assiri tells us. The absorption capacity is there \u2014 government reserves are expected to hold steady at around SAR 390 bn, and public debt (at roughly 33% of GDP) remains comfortably inside international safe zones. But financing costs are climbing alongside debt volumes, which narrows the room to borrow cheaply later.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The bottom line:<\/strong> Non-oil activity now accounts for more than half of real GDP, which is the structural buffer that didn\u2019t exist a decade ago. The rest of 2026 is going to test how much of a buffer that really is. The budget\u2019s prospects rest on two things the Kingdom doesn\u2019t fully control: where Brent settles when the war premium fades, and whether global demand holds up enough for Saudi to capture the volume it needs. Strong demand, higher-for-longer prices, and disciplined 2Q-4Q spending is the scenario that lets the SAR 165 bn target survive contact with reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saudi\u2019s budget deficit could hit SAR 250 bn if oil prices soften and spending skyrockets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[274,4911,27,10,4838],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-108791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-budget","tag-deficit","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-news-lead","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"27816d1a-a871-4847-bccc-f97651c4492b","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Will Saudi\u2019s fiscal resilience hold up when Hormuz reopens?","related_issue":[108786],"teaser":"Saudi\u2019s budget deficit could hit SAR 250 bn if oil prices soften and spending skyrockets","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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