{"id":108690,"date":"2026-05-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=108690"},"modified":"2026-05-11T03:21:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T03:21:35","slug":"this-morning-a-sub-4-deficit-only-if-hormuz-reopens-for-saudi-crude-exports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/11\/this-morning-a-sub-4-deficit-only-if-hormuz-reopens-for-saudi-crude-exports\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: A sub 4% deficit? Only if Hormuz reopens for Saudi Crude exports"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>It is an earnings-heavy start to the day as a flood of high-profile 1Q financials roll in, led by a strong showing from the world\u2019s largest oil producer. Aramco saw its net income jump 25% thanks to the East-West pipeline, though it tempered the upbeat results with a warning on the global energy backdrop. <\/p>\n

Beyond the oil giant<\/strong>, the rest of the board showed mixed results as heavyweights like Acwa Power experienced softening due to temporary grid limits, while Luberef grew its bottom line on the strength of its byproduct margins, and MBC Group felt the impact of weaker advertising demand amid regional tensions.<\/p>\n

Happening today<\/p>\n

Dar Albalad<\/strong>\u2019s retail subscription for its IPO continues<\/strong>, running until 14 May<\/a> after it kicked off yesterday. The retail tranche offers 6.3 mn shares, about 30% of the firm\u2019s share capital. Final allocations land on 18 May, and refunds will be processed by 21 May.<\/p>\n

ICYMI-<\/strong> Strong demand for the institutional tranche last week<\/a> set the final IPO price at the top of the range at SAR 9.75 per share, implying a transaction size of around SAR 205 mn (USD 55 mn). The pricing values the company at SAR 682 mn (USD 182 mn).<\/p>\n

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Watch this space<\/p>\n

<\/a> ECONOMY \u2014 Saudi\u2019s deficit could narrow back below 4% \u2014 if Hormuz reopens:<\/strong> Jefferies International tells the Arabic press<\/a> that the kingdom\u2019s budget gap could shrink to under 4% of GDP this year, but the call hinges on shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi crude exports picking up. The first-quarter blowout in the deficit was driven mostly by one-off, growth-supportive spending \u2014 capex in particular \u2014 rather than a structural problem, Alia Moubayed, the bank\u2019s chief economist for MENA, says.<\/p>\n

The oil math:<\/strong> Brent in the first three months of the year ran only about USD 4 above the same stretch in 2025, but Moubayed expects prices to rise 20-25% over the rest of the year as Iran-related supply disruptions feed through. The deficit print, though, will come down to volumes more than price.<\/p>\n

Two scenarios are on the table:<\/strong> If exports stay around 5 mn bbl \/ d and Brent averages USD 90, with government spending up 10%, the deficit will widen meaningfully by year-end, she says. If exports and refined products climb closer to 7 mn bbl \/ d, the gap narrows to around 3.7%. The 2025 deficit came in at 5.8% of GDP.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> TRANSPORT \u2014 Self-driving shuttles are coming to Quba Mosque:<\/strong> An autonomous bus will start working at one of Madinah\u2019s busiest religious sites, with the Transport General Authority and the Madinah Region Development Authority kicking off a 60-day pilot at the Quba Mosque plazas, according to a post on X<\/a>. The shuttle will run a 700-meter loop with multiple stops, including visitor pickup and drop-off points and a cargo-loading area.<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/p>\n

Riyadh to Mumbai. Abu Dhabi to Singapore. Dubai to London. Cairo to Shenzhen.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most important business stories in MENA aren\u2019t happening inside MENA anymore<\/strong> \u2014 they\u2019re happening at the edges, where regional capital meets global ambition.<\/p>\n

EnterpriseAM MENA+ is our new flagship newsletter<\/strong>, built to cover the flows of capital, people, and ideas across the Middle East \u2014 and beyond it. AI, geopolitics, the war for talent, sovereign wealth strategy, the changing energy economy, and the new corridors reshaping global trade.<\/p>\n

Tap or click here to get your own copy<\/a><\/strong> delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 12 pm UAE | 11 am KSA | 11 am Egypt.<\/p>\n

\n

Data point<\/p>\n

[wwtt3]<\/strong> 14.1% \u2014 <\/strong>that\u2019s the y-o-y decline in the Kingdom\u2019s Industrial Production Index in <\/strong>March 2026<\/strong>, due to a dip in mining and quarrying activity and manufacturing activity, according to data (pdf)<\/a> from Gastat. The mining and quarrying sub-index decreased by 22.2% y-o-y, while manufacturing activity dipped by 4.7% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

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\n

The big story abroad <\/p>\n

The US-Iran stalemate crowds the front pages once again. <\/strong>President Donald Trump dismissed<\/a> Iran\u2019s response to Washington\u2019s latest proposal, calling the demands \u201ctotally unacceptable.\u201d Tehran reportedly floated moving a portion of its highly enriched uranium reserves to a separate nation and refused to decommission its nuclear infrastructure \u2014 this account was later denied by Iran\u2019s semi-official outlet Tasnim.<\/p>\n

Pakistan-Iran talks seem to have made some headway<\/strong>, with Qatar managing to export its<\/a>first LNG cargo<\/a> \u2014 bound for a Pakistani port \u2014 through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. Islamabad reportedly expects three more vessels to ship Qatari LNG through the waterway in the coming days.<\/p>\n

The regional conflict <\/strong>is set to dominate<\/a><\/strong> the agenda during Trump\u2019s summit with Chinese <\/strong>President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week. <\/strong>Both leaders have good reasons to resolve the Iran war, as it is taxing Trump\u2019s domestic popularity and straining Beijing\u2019s reliance on low-cost Iranian oil. Washington\u2019s worries over AI and a proposed new dialogue with China are also reportedly on the table<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: <\/strong>Alphabet has rapidly evolved<\/a> into an AI powerhouse, significantly narrowing the valuation gap with chipmaking giant Nvidia. Analysts suggest that the strength of the Gemini model, combined with Google Search, Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo, positions the company as the primary contender to lead the next era of tech growth.<\/p>\n

In a <\/strong>retrospective piece<\/a><\/strong> on the outgoing Federal Reserve Chair<\/strong>, Bloomberg chronicles Jerome Powell\u2019s long battle to maintain the institution\u2019s independence. Powell\u2019s term saw heavy criticism from Trump, a probe from the Justice Department, and an unusual decision to stay on after his successor stepped up to assume the mantle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autonomous buses are coming to Quba Mosque<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[4997,27,10,29,51,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-108690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-dar-albalad","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-ipo-watch","tag-transport","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"9cc70f59-2b25-4f52-b430-503af3d91007","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/254.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Hormuz remains \u201cthe X-factor\u201d for Saudi Arabia\u2019s 2026 budget","related_issue":[108688],"teaser":"Autonomous buses are coming to Quba Mosque"},"yoast_head":"\nTHIS MORNING: A sub 4% deficit? 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