{"id":107592,"date":"2026-04-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=107592"},"modified":"2026-04-19T04:04:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T04:04:03","slug":"prolonged-conflict-could-drag-saudi-growth-to-2-as-bmi-slashes-gcc-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/19\/prolonged-conflict-could-drag-saudi-growth-to-2-as-bmi-slashes-gcc-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Prolonged conflict could drag Saudi growth to 2% as BMI slashes GCC outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our 2026 economic outlook is getting dimmer the longer the <\/strong>war drags on: <\/strong>The Kingdom\u2019s GDP growth could slow to 2-2.2% in 2026 if the US-Iran war extends through May without a breakthrough, BMI MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. That\u2019s a sharp downgrade from a pre-conflict forecast of 4.8%<\/a>, which would have marked the Kingdom\u2019s fastest expansion since 2022. <\/p>\n

BMI\u2019s outlook is more pessimistic than the <\/strong>IMF<\/a><\/strong>, which pegged Saudi Arabia to grow 3.1% this year.<\/p>\n

The neighborhood isn\u2019t doing much better: <\/strong>GCC growth estimates for 2026 have been slashed to 1.9%, down from a pre-conflict estimate of 4.8%. The broader Mena growth outlook has also been revised down by 2.9 percentage points to just 1%, making it \u201cthe slowest-growing region globally,\u201d Kas-Hanna noted. The IMF is on the same page with a 1.1% forecast for Mena. <\/p>\n

It all comes back to Hormuz and its spillover: <\/strong>Kas-Hanna attributed the revision mainly to the region\u2019s heavy exposure to the Strait of Hormuz. \u201cAny sustained disruption [of the Strait] would affect not only energy exports but also non-energy exports, re-exports and imports,\u201d she said. While energy flows may recover relatively quickly, non-hydrocarbon trade could take longer, adding inflationary pressure and potentially causing shortages of key industrial inputs and capital goods, which may disrupt sectors like construction.<\/p>\n

BUT- Our oil production offers some cushion: <\/strong>Despite the downgrade, Saudi Arabia remains an outlier, with output down some 23% in March<\/a> as it rerouted exports through the East-West pipeline, preserving some hydrocarbon revenue, said Fitch\u2019s Head of Mena Country Risk Ramona Moubarak. By comparison, production fell nearly 61% in Iraq and around 50% in Kuwait and Bahrain due to reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while the UAE saw a 45% drop but maintained some exports via the Fujairah pipeline.<\/p>\n

MENA at a standstill: <\/strong>The broader MENA growth outlook has been dragged down by 2.9 percentage points to just 1%, \u201cmaking it the slowest growing region globally,\u201d Kas-Hanna noted. This aligns closely with recent IMF projections placing MENA growth at 1.1%, though the Fund remains more optimistic about the UAE, forecasting 3.1% growth.<\/p>\n

The regional outlook is currently split between a 55% \u201cextend to end\u201d base case and a <\/strong>45% \u201cextend to escalate\u201d scenario<\/strong>, Moubarak explained. Under the base case, hostilities are contained through April, leading to a diplomatic framework as both the US and Iran seek to avoid the structural costs of a full-scale war, and Brent would average about USD 78 \/ bbl.<\/p>\n

In a more severe escalation scenario<\/strong>, oil prices could spike to as high as USD 150 \/ bbl in a \u201clevel 3\u201d case involving an uncontrolled, prolonged war that inflicts structural damage on energy infrastructure. Under \u201clevel 1\u201d and \u201clevel 2\u201d scenarios, which would see Houthi-led disruptions in Bab Al Mandeb and temporary closures of key maritime chokepoints, prices would likely range between USD 115-130 \/ bbl, Moubarak explained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Overall, the GCC is expected to grow only 1.9%, down from 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