{"id":107260,"date":"2026-04-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=107260"},"modified":"2026-04-13T02:19:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T02:19:57","slug":"world-bank-warns-of-prolonged-economic-strain-from-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/13\/world-bank-warns-of-prolonged-economic-strain-from-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank warns of prolonged economic strain from Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"

Even if a ceasefire holds, the economic fallout from the Iran war <\/strong>is already <\/strong>rippling far beyond the region<\/strong>, World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters<\/a>, sketching out a global economy that slows, heats up, and grows more fragile the longer the conflict lingers.<\/p>\n

Two paths, one problem<\/p>\n

The World Bank\u2019s outlook hinges on two primary scenarios:<\/strong> A ceasefire baseline where global growth slows by 0.3-0.4 points, and a prolonged war that triggers a full 1.0-point contraction, Banga said. Inflation is projected to jump 200\u2013300 basis points in a ceasefire scenario, with an additional 0.9-point spike if fighting continues.<\/p>\n

The toll on emerging markets: <\/strong>The World Bank slashed 2026 growth forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies to 3.65% in 2026, down from 4% in October, with a downside scenario pulling it as low as 2.6%. Meanwhile, inflation projections have jumped to 4.9%, up from a 3% estimate, potentially climbing to 6.7% if the conflict persists.<\/p>\n

\n

Where the shock is coming from<\/p>\n

Energy markets are leading the disruption<\/strong>, with oil prices surging by roughly 50%, while supply chains for gas, fertilizers, and even niche inputs like helium are under strain. Aviation and tourism \u2014 early casualties in any regional conflict \u2014 are also absorbing fresh blows.<\/p>\n

The fate of the Strait of Hormuz is also adding pressure.<\/strong> The longer the strait remains closed, the deeper and more lasting the damage will be to critical energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n

And the two-week truce appears increasingly tenuous<\/strong>. Exchanges between Israel and Iran, coupled with flopped peace talks, proved how quickly the situation could deteriorate \u2014 keeping markets on edge.<\/p>\n

\n

Crisis tools are being deployed <\/p>\n

To support vulnerable economies, the bank is activating crisis-response channels <\/strong>to fast-track liquidity<\/strong>, particularly for energy-importing nations. These mechanisms allow countries to bypass new board approvals and tap into previously authorized but undisbursed funds. Despite these measures, high debt and currently high-interest rates leave little room for error in these economies. <\/p>\n

What not to do: <\/strong>Banga cautions against broad energy subsidies, which could further destabilize already strained fiscal positions.<\/p>\n

If there is a longer-term takeaway, it\u2019s structural<\/strong>. The crisis is highlighting the need for energy diversification and self-sufficiency. The World Bank nodded to this shift by re-entering nuclear financing alongside continued support for renewables and hydro. Countries that invested early are already seeing the benefits \u2014 Nigeria leveraged its large-scale refining capacity to increase output and supply aviation fuel regionally, insulating itself from the worst of the shock, Banga said.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets opened lower on US blockade news<\/strong>. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng shed 1.2%, while Japan\u2019s Nikkei declined 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3%. Wall Street futures are also in the red.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,315<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +7.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,526<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +10.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,800<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -2.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49,079<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,838<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,715<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: -5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,601<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,601<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +6.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,926<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 95.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,787<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 70,781<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.2% (YTD: -20.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

917.35<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: -0.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA bond & sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Fear gauge)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: xx%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.4 bn. The index is up 7.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Chemanol (+7.4%), SIIG (+6.8%), and Alujain (+4.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Fourth Milling (-3.9%), Saleh Alrashed (-3.2%), and Sport Clubs (-3.0%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 13.8 mn. The index is down 2.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Leaf (+9.3%), Alkuzama (+8.9%), and Horizon Educational (+7.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Tam Development (-9.2%), Tharwah (-5.4%), and Aljouf Water (-4.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

World Bank warns of slower growth and higher inflation even under ceasefire scenario<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":107261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-107260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"abac1c50-791d-40b0-b81c-80f875a68267","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/537.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Truce or not, the damage is done","related_issue":[107245],"teaser":"World Bank warns of slower growth and higher inflation even under ceasefire scenario"},"yoast_head":"\nWorld Bank warns of prolonged economic strain from Iran war - 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