{"id":107206,"date":"2026-04-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=107206"},"modified":"2026-04-12T03:56:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T03:56:31","slug":"a-wobbly-ceasefire-puts-spanner-in-em-equities-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/12\/a-wobbly-ceasefire-puts-spanner-in-em-equities-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"A wobbly ceasefire puts spanner in EM equities\u2019 recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

A cause for celebration for emerging market equities is on pause<\/strong> after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was rocked by Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian strikes on the Gulf.<\/p>\n

ICYMI- <\/strong>Equity markets in our neck of the woods had rallied immediately after the ceasefire news, with Egypt\u2019s EGX up 4.1%<\/a> at the end of trading on Wednesday, Saudi\u2019s Tadawul closing up 2.3%, and UAE equities catching a break<\/a> with their biggest intraday rally in twelve years. The EGP also gained roughly 2.5% on the greenback, with analysts predicting recovery momentum could hold.<\/p>\n

But it didn\u2019t last too long. <\/strong>The ceasefire cracked and EM markets slumped, with currencies and equities dipping for the first time in five days, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. The MSCI Index tracking equities in developing nations was down 0.9%, and EM currencies were down 0.3%. Energy import-dependent markets in Asia drove the slump, as movement through Hormuz stayed sticky.<\/p>\n

EMs were hit by a massive rout at the start of the war<\/strong>, with Institute of International Finance data showing that USD 70.3 bn was pulled from EM assets<\/a>, with USD 56 bn pulled just from EM stocks. Meanwhile, the USD clawed its way back as the safe haven of choice for investors<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pockets of resilience are pushing a neutral outlook for EMs: <\/strong>In its latest Weekly Market Commentary<\/a>, BlackRock\u2019s Wei Li wrote that the firm is opting for a policy of \u201cquality and selectivity\u201d when it comes to EMs, pointing to pockets of resilience from net energy exporters helping to buoy emerging market equities.<\/p>\n

The asset management giant is also bullish on EM USD-denominated debt<\/strong>, shielding from currency volatility, markets that are relatively shielded from the regional conflict, like South America, and infrastructure assets linked to the AI buildout.<\/p>\n

Will the recovery pick up again? <\/strong>For now, the risks are still there but are being offset somewhat by the ceasefire, Generali Asset Management\u2019s Guillaume Tresca told the news outlet. Confidence is still low, and volatility is high, with analysts slashing predictions of interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,343<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0 (YTD: +8.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,530<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,671<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -2.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49,079<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0 (YTD: +17.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,838<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,715<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: -5.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,817<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,601<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +6.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,926<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 95.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.65<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,787<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73,449<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: -16.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

913.96<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA bond & sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Fear gauge)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: +28.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>was flat on Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.4 bn. The index is up 8.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Al Wasail Industrial (+5.2%), Petro Rabigh (+4.3%), and Gulf Union AlAhlia (+3.9%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>SRMG (-4.1%), Saco (-3.9%), and Naseej (-3.7%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 21 mn. The index is down 2.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Alrasheed (+9.9%), Mulkia (+9.4%), and Tharwah (+8.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Alctec (-7.7%), Riyal (-7.3%), and Sign World (-6.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock markets were seeing a rally in the wake of the ceasefire news<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":107207,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2419,10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-107206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"af928132-95a1-4271-85e4-523e51b3b8b8","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/2323.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EMs\u2019 recovery short-lived as shaky ceasefire keeps volatility high","related_issue":[107193],"teaser":"Stock markets were seeing a rally in the wake of the ceasefire news"},"yoast_head":"\nA wobbly ceasefire puts spanner in EM equities\u2019 recovery - 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