{"id":106660,"date":"2026-03-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=106660"},"modified":"2026-03-31T03:53:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T03:53:17","slug":"traders-expect-the-arab-light-premium-to-soar-to-usd-40-bbl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/03\/31\/traders-expect-the-arab-light-premium-to-soar-to-usd-40-bbl\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders expect the Arab Light premium to soar to USD 40 \/ bbl"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good mo<\/strong>rning, fo<\/strong>lks. <\/strong>A number of major headlines fill today\u2019s issue, thanks to and despite the ongoing conflict. Leading today\u2019s stories is our interview with US defense technology player Vector\u2019s CEO Andy Yakulis, who filled us in on how Saudi Arabia can tweak its defensive capabilities and what we can learn from the conflict in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

PLUS-<\/strong> A Saudi-US venture is wagering on Saudi\u2019s hospitality sector, even as the war shows no sign of stopping, with a plan to set up 50 hotels by 2029 across the Kingdom.<\/p>\n

PSAs<\/p>\n

The Madinah Bus Project rolled out an updated 15-route network to make <\/strong>getting <\/strong>around the holy city smoother<\/strong>, state news agency SPA<\/a> reports. Five routes \u2014 including those to the airport, Prophet\u2019s Mosque, and Haramain Railway \u2014 run 24\/7, while 10 more operate 18 hours daily across other areas in the city.<\/p>\n

Watch this space<\/p>\n

<\/a> OIL \u2014 Are we heading into an unprecedented premium for Arab Light? <\/strong>Aramco is finalizing May-loading crude prices, with traders pointing to a roughly USD 40 per barrel premium for Arab Light \u2014 up from USD 2.50 in April<\/a>, unnamed traders told Bloomberg<\/a>. The list will land within days.<\/p>\n

The negotiation has shifted from routine pricing to a search for workable benchmarks \u2014 <\/strong>and refiners are testing alternatives.<\/strong> Informal talks with Asian buyers are running hotter than usual as margins tighten under higher costs and constrained supply. Some spot cargoes are already being priced<\/a> against Brent-linked instruments, while other options \u2014 including Shanghai Futures Exchange pricing and the UAE\u2019s Upper Zakum \u2014 are being floated as reference points.<\/p>\n

Why this matters: <\/strong>This is leaning more toward a benchmark breakdown. When buyers start indexing outside Dubai or Oman, the region\u2019s pricing structure comes under pressure.<\/p>\n

Missing crude is another problem<\/strong>: <\/strong>Flows of Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy have effectively stalled with Hormuz disrupted, leaving the East-West Yanbu pipeline \u2014 which carries Arab Light only \u2014 as the only outlet. The pipeline is reportedly already running<\/a> at its full capacity of 7 mn bbl \/ d.<\/p>\n

That concentrates supply into a single grade just as its price spikes<\/strong>, forcing refiners into a simple equation: pay up or step back. Early signals suggest they\u2019re leaning toward the latter, traders from refiners that import volumes from the Kingdom told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

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D<\/strong>ISRUPTIO<\/strong>N WATCH \u2014 <\/strong>Projectiles <\/strong>landed close to a Greek-owned container ship <\/strong>near Ras Tanura<\/strong>, Reuters<\/a> reports, citing maritime risk management outfit Vanguard. The Liberian-flagged Express Rome reported two such incidents occurring one hour apart, and that its crew was unharmed. Although no group claimed responsibility for the incident, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard previously claimed to have attacked the Express Rome while crossing<\/a> the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month.<\/p>\n

Data point<\/p>\n

<\/a> 16.8% \u2014 that\u2019s the y-o-y increase in the Kingdom\u2019s services exports in 4Q <\/strong>2025<\/strong>, reaching SAR 66.1 bn, according to the General Authority for Statistics\u2019 latest report (pdf)<\/a>. Meanwhile, services imports edged down 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 119.6 bn.<\/p>\n

The drivers: <\/strong>Growth was driven by travel services, which accounted for 59.8% of the total. Exports of transportation services followed at 15.9%, with air travel making up 40.6% of that figure. On the import side, transportation services held the largest share at 28%, followed by travel services at 21.1%.<\/p>\n

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The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

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***<\/strong>You\u2019re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi<\/strong>, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We\u2019re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.<\/p>\n

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The big story abroad<\/p>\n

<\/a> It\u2019s another morning with the regional war dominating global headlines:<\/strong> US President Donald Trump told aides he is \u201cwilling to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,\u201d the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. Trying to open up Hormuz would extend the war beyond his timeline, according to officials cited by the Wall Street Journal. This came shortly after he reiterated<\/a> his threat to destroy Iran\u2019s energy infrastructure if it does not open the strait.<\/p>\n

Markets were quick to react to the news<\/strong>, with Asian markets trading higher after opening in the red, oil dipping slightly, and Wall Street likely opening up with futures in the green.<\/p>\n

And while it\u2019s shaping up to be a good day for equities, the damage has been done. <\/strong>What could\u2019ve been a red-letter year for US equities has been overtaken by recession fears and soaring energy prices, as Wall Street wraps up its worst quarter in four years. Closer to home, emerging-market stocks also suffered \u2014 losing their 2026 gains with the US-Iran war poised to raise inflation and stall growth.<\/p>\n

Dive deeper: <\/strong>Wall Street Journal<\/a><\/strong> and <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a><\/strong> have more.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A new food giant could soon enter the scene:<\/strong> UK-based consumer packaged goods giant Unilever is inching closer to merging its food business with US spice manufacturer McCormick, unnamed sources told the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. The resulting entity would be valued at around USD 60 bn. Expect an official announcement as soon as later today.<\/p>\n

Also receiving ink this morning: <\/strong>Israel\u2019s parliament passed a law<\/a> that makes execution the default sentence for Palestinians convicted of lethal terrorism. Human rights advocates have condemned the move, arguing that it contradicts the state\u2019s longstanding freeze on capital punishment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PLUS: Projectiles landed close to a Greek-owned container ship near Ras Tanura last night<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106661,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[139,2425,10,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-106660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-aramco","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a47347df-6bfc-45c2-8e94-be075b5860bb","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1458.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Arab Light premium spikes","related_issue":[106658],"teaser":"PLUS: Projectiles landed close to a Greek-owned container ship near Ras Tanura last night","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nTraders expect the Arab Light premium to soar to USD 40 \/ bbl - 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