{"id":106233,"date":"2026-03-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=106233"},"modified":"2026-03-16T03:46:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T03:46:45","slug":"this-morning-gcc-could-see-worst-economic-slump-since-gulf-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/03\/16\/this-morning-gcc-could-see-worst-economic-slump-since-gulf-war\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: GCC could see worst economic slump since Gulf War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, lovely people. <\/strong>We\u2019re only a few sleeps away from the end of Ramadan and a much, much needed Eid break. We are hoping to unplug from the endless barrage of news that has been going on for the past couple of weeks.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still mostly business as usual in the Kingdom<\/strong>, save for limited drone interceptions over Riyadh and the Eastern Province, as we\u2019ve been spared the brunt of Iranian attacks targeting critical infrastructure all over the region.<\/p>\n

Tehran is claiming it is \u201cnot responsible\u201d for strikes on our oil infrastructure<\/strong>, including strikes on Ras Tanura and the Shaybah oil field, Iran\u2019s ambassador to Saudi Arabia told Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran <\/strong>seems to want a second look at Gulf relations: <\/strong>Diplomatic relationships with Gulf countries are due for a \u201cserious review\u201d following US-Israeli strikes, the ambassador said. He called for deeper ties between GCC nations and the Islamic Republic and warned against \u201cexcessive reliance on external powers\u201d and \u201can exclusionary approach [within the region].\u201d<\/p>\n

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**PROGRAMMING NOTE- <\/strong>EnterpriseAM Saudi will be off for Eid Al Fitr starting tomorrow, and will be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Tuesday, 24 March.<\/p>\n

Watch this space<\/p>\n

<\/a> ECONOMY \u2014 A grim forecast if the Iran conflict drags on:<\/strong> The GCC could see the worst economic slump since the 1990s Gulf War, but Saudi Arabia is positioned to weather the storm far better than its regional peers, economists tell Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What changed:<\/strong> A two-month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could vaporize 14% of GDP in Qatar and Kuwait this year. The Kingdom is looking at a much softer 3% contraction.<\/p>\n

Why? <\/strong>The divergence comes down to infrastructure and defense. The Kingdom can reroute its crude exports away from the vulnerable Hormuz waterway. Riyadh continues to successfully thwart most incoming Iranian strikes, allowing domestic airspace and businesses to remain open with limited physical disruption.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next?<\/strong> Non-oil sectors like tourism and real estate will inevitably take a hit from regional anxiety, yet there is a possibility the war actually improves Saudi\u2019s balance sheet for 2026, analysts told the business information service. Brent crude topped USD 103 \/ bbl on Friday \u2014 if the Kingdom sustains an average output of 7.5 mn bbl \/ d with oil staying in the USD 90 \/ bbl range, its budget deficit could shrink by 1% this year, beating the government\u2019s initial forecast of a 3.3% shortfall.<\/p>\n

ADCB says the war could be a boon for Saudi\u2019s deficit, too \u2014 but only if the conflict <\/strong>remains limited<\/strong>. We have more on that in today\u2019s news well, below.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> ENERGY \u2014 Gulf producers watch <\/strong>bns<\/strong> of USD slip through<\/strong> Hormuz: <\/strong>The near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already erased an estimated USD 15 bn in energy revenues for Gulf exporters, according to Kpler data picked up by the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The breakdown:<\/strong> The chokepoint typically moves some USD 1.2 bn worth of crude, refined products, and LNG every day (based on last year\u2019s prices and volumes), and currently, at least USD 10.7 bn worth of cargoes are still stranded inside, awaiting safe passage. Losses are piling up unevenly, however, with Saudi Arabia alone missing out on some USD 4.5 bn in revenues since the start of the war.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, <\/strong>Asia looks <\/strong>to the US to<\/strong> diversify oil sources beyond the Middle East: <\/strong>The Hormuz chokepoint is pushing Asian countries to seek US energy suppliers as alternatives to reduce Middle East dependence, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. US companies have secured USD 50 bn worth of investments in the past 48 hours, US Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin told the business information service.<\/p>\n

It would currently take around eight days to ship from the US, compared to 28 days from the Middle East via the now-restricted Strait of Hormuz. <\/strong>This is pushing Indo-Pacific countries to gravitate toward US energy exports, prioritizing logistical reliability over potential volatile tariff policies, Zeldin said.<\/p>\n

LOGIST<\/strong>ICS <\/strong>\u2014 The Saudi Ports Authority added CMA CGM\u2019s Redex <\/strong>shipping service to Jeddah Islamic Port<\/strong>, according to a statement on X<\/a>. The French shipping giant\u2019s service \u2014 which has a total carrying capacity of 2.59k standard containers \u2014 connects the port to Malta Freeport, Egypt\u2019s Port Said and Alexandria ports, as well as Jordan\u2019s port of Aqaba.<\/p>\n

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The big story abroad<\/p>\n

<\/a> The regional war is still getting ink from all international dailies <\/strong>\u2014 no surprise there \u2014 as Washington raises the stakes. US President Donald Trump has warned Nato that it faces a \u201cvery bad\u201d future if the coalition does not help the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he told the Financial Times<\/a>. Trump also signaled that he may delay his sit-down with China\u2019s President Xi Jinping \u2014 scheduled for later this month \u2014 in efforts to pressure Beijing to act.<\/p>\n

And in the world of e-commerce: <\/strong>Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com has launched<\/a> its online marketplace \u2014 Joybuy \u2014 in European markets, as it prepares to face off with its major rival Amazon. China\u2019s largest direct online retailer has stepped foot into the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, diversifying its offerings away from its home market, where retailers face fierce competition vis-a-vis fast delivery times.<\/p>\n

AND- <\/strong>This year\u2019s Oscars are wrapping up as we hit send this morning. Among those who secured awards during the ceremony: Jessie Buckley won best actress for her performance in Hamnet and Sinners\u2019 Michael B Jordan was awarded best actor. One Battle After Another took home the award for best picture.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PLUS: Oil producers watch bns of USD slip through Hormuz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106234,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[27,10,381,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-106233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-gcc","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b443e822-be0e-4ddf-a5c0-e1698877b25b","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/788.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"GCC could see worst economic slump since Gulf War","related_issue":[106231],"teaser":"PLUS: Oil producers watch bns of USD slip through Hormuz","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nTHIS MORNING: GCC could see worst economic slump since Gulf War - 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