{"id":106182,"date":"2026-03-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=106182"},"modified":"2026-03-15T03:37:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T03:37:29","slug":"gcc-debt-markets-hit-the-brakes-as-geopolitical-risk-spikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/03\/15\/gcc-debt-markets-hit-the-brakes-as-geopolitical-risk-spikes\/","title":{"rendered":"GCC debt markets hit the brakes as geopolitical risk spikes"},"content":{"rendered":"

GCC borrowers have effectively frozen new USD bond<\/strong> and sukuk sales <\/strong>as regional markets price at a war premium following the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, Fitch Ratings<\/a> says. After a record-breaking start to 2026, the regional pipeline is now on hold despite the total outstanding debt market hitting a record USD 1.2 tn this month \u2014 a 14% y-o-y increase.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- The GCC had <\/strong>significant funding needs<\/a><\/strong> going into 2026<\/strong>, as Gulf governments and issuers look to diversify funding channels and refinance maturing debt. Regional debt markets had been on track to break the USD 1.25 tn mark this year, up from USD 1.1 tn in issuances last year, according to Fitch Ratings\u2019 GCC Debt Capital Markets MENA Monitor 2026 report (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> The GCC now accounts for 40% of all emerging-market USD issuance (excluding China), making it the primary engine of EM debt. While yields widened 28-32 bps in the conflict\u2019s first 10 days, CDS remained remarkably resilient, widening by only 13 bps for Abu Dhabi and 12 bps for Saudi Arabia, according to a Mashreq Capital note (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Real estate among the first to show signs of trouble: <\/strong>\u201cWhile higher-quality sovereign and quasi-sovereign credits continue to trade in an orderly manner, weaker high-yield issuers, particularly in real estate, have seen a marked deterioration in market depth,\u201d the bank subsidiary notes, citing bid-ask spreads that have widened to around 2 points versus the usual 0.5, indicating limited buyer appetite.<\/p>\n

Sukuk continues to offer a volatility<\/strong> hedge:<\/strong> Heavy demand from Islamic banks is keeping sukuk spreads tighter than conventional bonds, giving regional issuers a pricing edge even as high-yield benchmarks \u2014 like the S&P High Yield Sukuk Index \u2014 see yields rise toward 6.61%.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, Mashreq Capital sees three potential scenarios:<\/strong> A diplomatic de-escalation could quickly unwind the war premium, tightening spreads and reopening the issuance window, according to the note. A more prolonged standoff would likely keep spreads elevated and push CDS ins. costs higher, effectively raising borrowing costs for regional issuers. In a worst-case scenario, markets could face a broader liquidity shock, forcing selloffs even in high-quality sovereign debt.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,893<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,477<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +6.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,370<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46,791<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +11.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,480<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: -5.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,426<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -10.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,632<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,261<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,717<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: -1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 103.14<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5,062<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 70,747<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -19.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

917.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

150.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

27.19<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +81.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI fell 0.5% last Thursday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 5 bn. The index is up 3.8% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Chemanol (+9.9%), Mouwasat (+8.1%), and Emaar EC (+5.9%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Saleh AlRashed (-6.0%), Almoosa (-5.9%), and Arabian Mills (-5.0%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.6% last Thursday<\/strong> on turnover of SAR 28.2 mn. The index is down 4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Leaf (+9.6%), First Avenue (+9.1%), and Academy of Learning (+9.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Paper Home (-9.8%), AME (-9.0%), and Pro Medex (-7.8%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Riyad Bank received CMA approval for an SAR 10 bn capital hike<\/strong> to SAR 40\u202fbn via a bonus share issuance, according to a Tadawul disclosure<\/a>. The capital increase will be funded with SAR 5\u202fbn from the statutory reserve and SAR 5\u202fbn from retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every three shares held. The raised capital is aimed at strengthening the bank\u2019s capital base.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Heavy demand from Islamic banks is keeping sukuk spreads tighter than conventional bonds<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106183,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2441,10,3310,307,381,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-106182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-fitch","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-gcc","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"57832405-e36d-4eae-a9f4-ce65a91782e6","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/4\/1637.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Rising geopolitical risks stall GCC debt market activity","related_issue":[106165],"teaser":"Heavy demand from Islamic banks is keeping sukuk spreads tighter than conventional bonds"},"yoast_head":"\nGCC debt markets hit the brakes as geopolitical risk spikes - 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