{"id":105946,"date":"2026-02-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/02\/19\/prediction-markets-boom-amid-legislative-showdown-in-the-us\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T00:00:00","slug":"prediction-markets-boom-amid-legislative-showdown-in-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/02\/19\/prediction-markets-boom-amid-legislative-showdown-in-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets boom amid legislative showdown in the US"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prediction markets are booming, evolving rapidly from<\/strong> novelty wagering sites<\/strong> into a serious financial infrastructure that is statistically embarrassing Wall Street<\/strong>, The New York Times<\/a> reports. Trading volume on prediction platforms surpassed USD 26.2 bn in January, with platform Kalshi alone recording nearly USD 10 bn<\/a>. While sports wagering drives much of this liquidity, a significant portion \u2014 over USD 60 mn on any given day \u2014 is now staked on serious economic and political questions, offering a real-time \u201ctruth\u201d that professional forecasters are finding impossible to ignore.<\/p>\n

This surge has revealed a startling trend: the crowd is often just as smart, if not smarter, <\/strong>than the highly paid professionals. <\/strong>A recent working paper<\/a> published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that over a five-year period, traders on Kalshi were as statistically accurate as professional economists in predicting economic indicators \u2014 and even more precise at forecasting inflation. Another study<\/a> by researchers from the London Business School and Yale found that bettors on Polymarket forecast corporate earnings more accurately than the analysts paid to advise investors.<\/p>\n

The reason is simple: incentives.<\/strong> Professional analysts often face structural conflicts, researchers argue. They may hesitate to publish an outlier forecast for fear of embarrassment or be influenced by their firm\u2019s need to drive trading commissions. However, anonymous traders face no such social pressure. \u201cThe nice thing about prediction markets is that you have to put your money where your mouth is,\u201d said Theis Jensen, a Yale professor who studied the phenomenon.<\/p>\n

The rapid commoditization of real-world events has triggered a fierce legislative <\/strong>war that threatens to strangle the industry<\/strong>, The Guardian<\/a> reports. Because platforms like Kalshi classify their products as \u201cevent derivatives,\u201d they operate under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bypassing US state wagering laws.<\/p>\n

This distinction has enraged US state regulators.<\/strong> At least 20 federal lawsuits have been filed against major platforms, with state attorneys general arguing they are operating illegal sportsbooks disguised as financial exchanges. Despite the backlash, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said<\/a> the agency had filed court briefs defending its \u201cexclusive jurisdiction\u201d over prediction markets and vowed not to allow state governments to undermine federal authority.<\/p>\n

As US courts decide whether these platforms are the future of finance or merely <\/strong>unregulated casinos, the economic implications are profound.<\/strong> Some economists, like Justin Wolfers at the University of Michigan, suggest that institutions like the Federal Reserve should formally incorporate this data. Yet, he notes a deep institutional resistance. \u201cThere\u2019s a deep problem, which is, if you were to do this, you democratize decision making,\u201d Wolfers said, adding that \u201cright now the senior economist has a ton of power. Their view goes.\u201d<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets are in the green in early trading this morning, mirroring gains seen on Wall Street as tech stocks rebound from earlier losses. With the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng still closed in observance of the Lunar New Year, South Korea\u2019s Kospi is leading gains.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,155<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +6.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,503<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +8.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,623<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52,222<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +24.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,755<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +7.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,765<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +11.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,881<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +0.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,686<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +7.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,103<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +5.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 70.31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,986<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 66,701<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: -23.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

922.09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

153.59<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.31<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.8% (YTD: +34.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.8 bn. The index is up 6.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Enaya (+8.6%), Bupa Arabia (+8.0%) and Retal (+6.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Care (-10.0%), Yansab (-4.9%) and MBC Group (-4.1%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 12.0 mn. The index is up 1.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> AME (+8.4%), WSM (+6.1%) and Alhasoob (+5.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Mulkia (-9.6%), SPC (-9.1%) and Mayar (-9.0%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New research shows that prediction markets are leading in price discovery and outperforming professional analysts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105947,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2419,10,55,59,2553],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-105946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-regulation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ce9903bb-acc2-486d-8a94-255e686ee6cb","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/8\/317.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Maybe the crowd is the smartest economist after all","related_issue":[105930],"teaser":"New research shows that prediction markets are leading in price discovery and outperforming professional analysts"},"yoast_head":"\nPrediction markets boom amid legislative showdown in the US - 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