{"id":105524,"date":"2026-02-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/02\/03\/this-morning-bmi-warns-of-a-growth-slowdown-for-the-kingdom-if-us-iran-friction-persists\/"},"modified":"2026-02-03T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T00:00:00","slug":"this-morning-bmi-warns-of-a-growth-slowdown-for-the-kingdom-if-us-iran-friction-persists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/02\/03\/this-morning-bmi-warns-of-a-growth-slowdown-for-the-kingdom-if-us-iran-friction-persists\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: BMI warns of a growth slowdown for the Kingdom if US-Iran friction persists"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Good morning, ladies and gents<\/strong>. Business is taking it very slow this month, resulting in yet another brisk issue this morning. Our lead story dives into the extension of fee waivers for Tadawul and Edaa service charges for two more years, as regulators try to boost private-sector debt issuance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>WEATHER- Rain-bearing thunderclouds<\/strong> are expected over the Northern Borders, Al Jouf, Tabuk, Hail, Madinah, Makkah and Al Baha, with dusty winds in Riyadh and Qassim and mist in parts of the Eastern Province and the Kingdom\u2019s southwestern highlands.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Riyadh: 28\u00b0C high \/ 16\u00b0C low.<\/li>\n<li>Jeddah: 31\u00b0C high \/ 25\u00b0C low.<\/li>\n<li>Makkah: 31\u00b0C high \/ 24\u00b0C low.<\/li>\n<li>Dammam: 26\u00b0C high \/ 14\u00b0C low.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Watch this space<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong><a id=\"wwtt1\"><\/a> MACRO \u2014 <\/strong><strong>Saudi\u2019s oil and non-o<\/strong><strong>il growth could face a notable <\/strong><strong>slowdown if <\/strong><strong>US-Iran tensions persist into 2026,<\/strong> according to a BMI <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchsolutions.com\/bmi\/country-risk\/gcc-exposure-to-usiran-escalation-economic-spillovers-under-four-scenarios-30-01-2026\" style=\"\">research article<\/a>. While Saudi Arabia can reroute a portion of its exports oil flows via the East-West (Petroline) pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, the broader \u201chalo effect\u201d of regional stability would still be undermined by lower hydrocarbon exports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A military conflict would hit both the oil and non-oil sectors<\/strong>, with the oil sector feeling the brunt. If combined with a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hydrocarbon sector growth could see a 0.5 percentage point drop in a short-lived conflict and a 0.9 percentage point decline in a prolonged one.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Even a \u201cstatus quo\u201d scenario<\/strong> \u2014 marked by heightened security risks and increased ins. costs without physical disruption \u2014 could shave 0.1 percentage points off the Kingdom\u2019s non-hydrocarbon growth, the report suggests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong><a id=\"wwtt2\"><\/a> <\/strong><strong>GIGAPRO<\/strong><strong>JECTS \u2014 Will we see the Expo 2030 plan unveiled this month? <\/strong>The detailed master plan for the six-month Expo 2030 will reportedly be out in a matter of weeks, anonymous sources told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agbi.com\/construction\/2026\/02\/saudi-arabia-to-publish-expo-2030-masterplan-this-month\/\" style=\"\">AGBI<\/a>. The UK-based consultancy Buro Happold is finalizing the details, after Germany\u2019s Lava completed the concept design in September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Where are we standing? <\/strong>Groundwork is already underway after Nesma & Partners secured the utilities and infrastructure mandate last month. The SAR 2 bn second phase will reportedly be awarded when the master plan is out, according to AGBI\u2019s sources.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Recalibration likely won\u2019t hit the Expo: <\/strong>The project is among time-sensitive developments that are widely expected to be prioritized, as the need for fiscal consolidation pushes a wave of delays and rethinking of less urgent projects, reportedly including Neom\u2019s The Line, ski resort Trojena, and, more recently, the Mukaab.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong><a id=\"wwtt3\"><\/a> DEB<\/strong><strong>T <\/strong><strong>\u2014<\/strong> <strong>Ruya wants to seize Saudi\u2019s lending opportunities:<\/strong> PIF-backed Ruya Partners plans to launch a USD 400 mn private credit fund to target GCC middle-market lending, the firm\u2019s partner Omar AlYawer told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-02\/private-credit-firm-ruya-plans-400-million-fundraise-in-mideast\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a>. The new vehicle will focus on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with family offices, pension funds, and endowments expected to take part in the raise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong> While mega projects and sovereign-backed firms can easily tap bank loans, mid-sized companies in the region often find traditional financing too slow or inflexible to support scaling. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as private credit hubs, and Abu Dhabi-based Ruya\u2019s fund aims to fill the gap where demand for flexible capital exceeds supply, helping support economic growth. There\u2019s particularly strong demand for USD 10-50 mn loans in Saudi Arabia, AlYawer noted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What\u2019s next?<\/strong> The fund\u2019s first close is expected in the coming months, AlYawer said. Over the next three years, Ruya plans to expand the fund\u2019s scope to include real estate and infrastructure credit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong><a id=\"wwtt4\"><\/a> <\/strong><strong>SPORTS \u2014<\/strong><strong> Is LIV<\/strong><strong> Golf putting its teams on the market?<\/strong> LIV Golf is reportedly gearing up to sell minority stakes in two of its teams for the first time, eyeing valuations of up to USD 300 mn per team, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-01-28\/liv-golf-plans-to-sell-stakes-in-franchises-for-first-time\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The league reportedly tapped Citigroup to oversee the process, with a full control sale of one team also on the table.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Where things stand: <\/strong>The PIF-backed league operates 13 franchises, with team captains holding 25% equity. The executives\u2019 endgame is to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/frontofficesports.com\/liv-golf-envisions-1b-franchises-but-not-ready-to-sell-ownership-stakes\/\" style=\"\">push each team toward a USD 1 bn valuation<\/a>, driven by sponsorships and expanded use of rights.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>AND- <\/strong><strong>Benzema <\/strong><strong>joins Al Hilal: <\/strong>France\u2019s Karim Benzema <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/benzema-transfer-ronaldo-b472b0a49e3e654451c5d7a3f5360c76\" style=\"\">has left<\/a> Al Ittihad for Al Hilal, potentially threatening Cristiano Ronaldo\u2019s hopes to secure his first league title. Ronaldo\u2019s Al Nassr remains one point behind Al Hilal, the Kingdom\u2019s most successful team with 21 league titles and four Asian Championships. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REGULATION <\/strong><strong>\u2014 CMA to ease foreign ownership limits this year? <\/strong>The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is currently reviewing the 49% cap on foreign ownership in locally-listed companies and plans to tweak the rule soon. \u201cWe are committed to make it happen and we hope it\u2019s going to be happening this year,\u201d the regulator\u2019s board member Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen Binhassan is quoted as saying at the Capital Markets Forum Select by <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-02\/saudi-regulator-says-foreign-stock-ownership-limits-under-review?srnd=phx-markets\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The authority removing the cap could attract USD 10 bn in fresh capital inflows<\/strong>, according to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>We\u2019ve been anticipating the move for some time now<\/strong>, with Binhassan <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/09\/24\/cap-on-foreign-ownership-in-listed-companies-to-be-lifted-soon\/\" style=\"\">saying<\/a> that the authority is nearing a final decision on the amendment back in September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>ENERGY\u2014<\/strong> <strong>EIG <\/strong><strong>Global to set up fund to hold onto Aramco assets:<\/strong> US investment firm EIG Global Partners is setting up a new fund for its stake in Aramco\u2019s oil pipeline assets, as the current holding vehicle approaches the end of its term, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/eig-global-energy-plans-new-fund-keep-aramco-pipeline-stake-bring-new-investors-2026-02-02\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a> reports, citing two sources it says are in the know. EIG Global has tapped investment bank PJT Partners to advise on the move, through which it intends to court new investors. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Remember:<\/strong> In 2021, a group of investors led by EIG <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aramco.com\/en\/news-media\/news\/2021\/aramco-signs-infrastructure-investment-deal-with-eig-led-consortium\" style=\"\">paid USD 12.4 bn to partner with Aramco<\/a>, securing a 49% stake in Aramco\u2019s pipeline subsidiaries, while Aramco retained 51% ownership and control of the assets. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>AND \u2014 KSA and <\/strong><strong>Kuwait <\/strong><strong>will issue tenders for the Al Durra field this year<\/strong>, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tariq Al Roumi told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/kuwait-oil-minister-tells-reuters-we-expect-issue-tenders-durra-field-with-saudi-2026-02-02\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a> yesterday, adding that all kinds of tenders will be on the table. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A point of contention: <\/strong>Gulf Cooperation Council ministers <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/03\/04\/its-all-about-gaza-in-riyadh\/\" style=\"\">said<\/a> the Al Durra gas field is only jointly owned by the KSA and Kuwait in 2024. Both nations have repeatedly affirmed their joint ownership, while Iran claims it has the rights to the field, which it names Arash.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Data point<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>SAR 1.6 tn \u2014 t<\/strong><strong>hat\u2019s the amount of <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.argaam.com\/en\/article\/articledetail\/id\/1876752\" style=\"\">consumer spending<\/a><\/strong><strong> the Kingdom saw in 2025<\/strong>, up 11% y-o-y. Point of Sale (POS) spending rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 707.2 bn during the year, while e-commerce sales via Mada cards jumped 65% y-o-y to SAR 325.2 bn.<\/p>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-md-12 subscribe-box-panel\">\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h4 class=\"fw-lighter mb-10\">   Get <b style=\"font-weight: 700\">Enterprise<\/b> daily   <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-10\">The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<p>  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"ksa\/en\/user\/NewsLetters\" class=\"btn-green px-3 d-flex align-items-center\">Subscribe here<\/a>  <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>***<\/strong><strong>You\u2019re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi<\/strong>, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We\u2019re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge <\/strong>thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas\u2019heel and Hassan Allam Properties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Want to send us a story idea<\/strong>, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:climate@enterprisemea.com\" style=\"\">saudi@enterpriseAM.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>DID YOU KNOW <\/strong>that we also cover <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\" style=\"\">Egypt<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\" style=\"\">the UAE<\/a>, the MENA <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/logistics\/en\" style=\"\">logistics<\/a> industry, and the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/mena-india\/en\" style=\"\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/mena-india\/en\" style=\"\">MENA <> India<\/a> corridor?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Were you forwarded this email? <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/user\/news-letters\" style=\"\">Tap or click here<\/a> to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.<br \/><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The big story abroad <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Elon Musk is <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spacex.com\/updates#xai-joins-spacex\" style=\"\">merging<\/a><\/strong><strong> SpaceX with xAI<\/strong>, creating a USD 1.25 tn venture, people in the know told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-02-02\/elon-musk-s-spacex-said-to-combine-with-xai-ahead-of-mega-ipo?srnd=homepage-americas\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a>. The move sets the stage for Musk to carry out his plan of setting up data centers in the planet\u2019s orbit \u2014 he claims that that space will be the cheapest place for AI computing in two to three years. Properties formerly owned by xAI \u2014 Grok chatbot and X.com \u2014 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2026\/feb\/02\/elon-musk-spacex-xai-merger\" style=\"\">now fall<\/a> under SpaceX\u2019s umbrella.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The world\u2019s richest man still intends to take SpaceX public this year<\/strong>, in an IPO that could see the company raise as much as USD 50 bn, a source told Bloomberg. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>AND- Our usual dose of global trade updates: <\/strong>US President Donald Trump <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116002095109616255\" style=\"\">has agreed<\/a> to trim punitive tariffs on India on the condition that New Delhi stops buying Russian oil, reducing the levies from 25% to 18%. India will slash its levies on Washington down to zero. After a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump said New Delhi has agreed to buy more oil from Venezuela as well as upwards of USD 500 bn in US energy and other products.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Software giant Oracle has raised USD 25 bn in a blockbuster bond offering<\/strong>, attracting an orderbook of USD 127 bn at its peak, the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/8a9d3dba-b046-4597-b533-471428554550\" style=\"\">Financial Times<\/a> reports, citing people it says are familiar with the transaction. The funding came through amid concerns that Oracle was striking up an unsustainable level of debt to back its AI spending. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Circle your calendar<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The two-day <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pif.gov.sa\/en\/events\/psf-2026\/\" style=\"\">Private Sector Forum<\/a><\/strong><strong> kicks off next Monday <\/strong>at the King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center. The event will bring together PIF portfolio companies, government entities, and global investors \u201cto explore new opportunities and collaborate with peers driving Saudi Arabia\u2019s economic future.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LUS: The ,aster plan for Expo 2030 could be released this month<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105525,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[10,457,513,1365,2427,1448,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-105524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-expo-2030","tag-liv-golf","tag-non-oil-economy","tag-oil-economy","tag-private-credit","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"300c2287-43d2-43b4-819e-2c0599977617","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/6\/984.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Growth could slow down if US-Iran friction persists, BMI warns","related_issue":[105522],"teaser":"LUS: The ,aster plan for Expo 2030 could be released this month"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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