{"id":105359,"date":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/01\/27\/japanese-government-bond-turmoil-raises-risks-for-jpy-carry-trade-and-us-treasuries\/"},"modified":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T00:00:00","slug":"japanese-government-bond-turmoil-raises-risks-for-jpy-carry-trade-and-us-treasuries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/01\/27\/japanese-government-bond-turmoil-raises-risks-for-jpy-carry-trade-and-us-treasuries\/","title":{"rendered":"Japanese government bond turmoil raises risks for JPY, carry trade, and US Treasuries"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tokyo\u2019s bond market crash may be the end of easy money in Japan.<\/strong> The Japanese government bond (JGB) market, long a pillar of global stability, has entered a new era of unprecedented volatility, Bloomberg<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

What happened? <\/strong>Last week, yields jumped 25 basis points in a single session \u2014 a rate that previously took months \u2014 signaling the end of Japan\u2019s decades-long era of ultra-low rates.<\/p>\n

Why the market snapped<\/p>\n

The selloff was triggered by a relatively small amount of trading. <\/strong>Just USD 280 mn in turnover in ultra-long-dated JGBs sparked a USD 41 bn wipeout across the yield curve. Ultra-long maturities were hit the hardest, with about USD 170 mn traded in 30-year bonds and USD 110 mn in 40-year notes, yet yields jumped more than 25 basis points.<\/p>\n

This volatility exposed a hollowed-out market: <\/strong>Years of Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention have thinned liquidity. With the BOJ and domestic life insurers stepping back, prices are increasingly set by marginal trades rather than deep market demand. \u201cThis is not a paradox: it is exactly what you expect in a market where depth is thin, dealer balance sheets are constrained, and prices are set by the marginal trade rather than by volume-weighted averages,\u201d said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.<\/p>\n

The pressure stems from a perfect storm of rising inflation and Prime Minister Sanae <\/strong>Takaichi\u2019s expansionary fiscal plans<\/strong>, which have shown \u201cdisregard toward the yield movements\u201d ahead of the Feb. 8 snap election, according to Shinji Kunibe of Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. Investors fear higher spending will worsen Japan\u2019s already heavy debt burden of about 230% of GDP, creating a \u201cTruss moment\u201d with the currency down and long-end yields getting \u201ca little out of control,\u201d said Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman.<\/p>\n

\n

The global ripple effect <\/p>\n

The shock rippled through global markets<\/strong>, already pressuring US Treasuries. Goldman Sachs estimates that every 10 basis points of a Japan-specific bond shock lifts US yields by two to three points.<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> Rising yields threaten the USD 450 bn JPY-funded carry trade \u2014 a \u201cbastion\u201d of the global economy \u2014 where investors borrow in low-rate JPY to invest in higher-yielding assets, said Amova Asset Management\u2019s Naomi Fink. If the JPY slides further, Japan may sell its US Treasury reserves to defend the currency \u2014 exporting its \u201cJapan problem\u201d to Western markets. Albert Edwards of Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale told the Financial Times<\/a> that Western politicians should \u201cquiver with fear\u201d as Japan turns off the liquidity tap that has suppressed global bond yields for years.<\/p>\n

Japan reax<\/p>\n

The Bank of Japan\u2019s response has so far been a game of \u201cwhack-a-mole<\/strong>.\u201d While the BOJ signaled it may buy bonds to stabilize markets \u2014 helping debt rebound \u2014 it triggered another sharp selloff in the JPY. Rates were held steady on Friday, though inflation forecasts were raised, suggesting the pressure won\u2019t ease soon. \u201cIt\u2019s a new era,\u201d said Masayuki Koguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management. \u201cThis is just the beginning \u2014 there\u2019s a chance that bigger shocks will happen.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Looking ahead<\/p>\n

The long-term concern is the \u201crepatriation\u201d of Japanese ca<\/strong>pital<\/strong>. Higher domestic yields are prompting Japanese institutions to reconsider their USD 5 tn in overseas investments, risking a move back to JGBs that could drain global liquidity. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group has already signaled a shift: \u201cI always loved foreign bond investment, but not anymore. Now it\u2019s JGBs,\u201d said Arihiro Nagata, the group\u2019s global markets head.<\/p>\n

Ignoring market signals could worsen dysfunction, investors warn<\/strong>. With overseas investors now accounting for 65% of monthly cashbond trading (up from 12% in 2009), the JGB market is in a \u201cfragile transition phase,\u201d and fast-moving foreign capital is amplifying volatility, James Athey of Marlborough Investment Management and Stefan Rittner of Allianz Global Investors said.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Optimism appears to be the theme for markets this morning, as the anticipation for a wave of Big Tech earnings out later this week offsets the uncertainty triggered by President Trump announcing higher tariffs on South Korean goods and the imminent announcement of Powell\u2019s replacement. Asia-Pacific markets are mostly in the green, with the Kospi leading gains, reversing earlier losses, which came as an immediate reaction to Trump\u2019s announcement.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,271<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +7.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,519<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +9.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,741<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47,507<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +13.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,264<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +2.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,446<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +6.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,950<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,149<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +2.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,958<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 65.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 6.80<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+28.9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5,122<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 88,198<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.9% (YTD: +0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

922.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA bond & sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Fear gauge)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +7.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>remained flat yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 5.5 bn. The index is up 7.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Ades (+6.1%), CGS (+5.8%) and Amak (+5.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Herfy Foods (-3.1%), MIS (-2.8%) and Sieco (-2.7%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.5% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 18.8 mn. The index is up 1.9% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Knowlegdenet (+9.4%), Time (+9.1%) and Edarat (+8.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Itmam (-8.3%), Mufeed (-6.1%) and Neft Alsharq (-5.9%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors are bracing for the end of the \u201cliquidity tap\u201d as Japanese yields hit 20-year highs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105360,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-105359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"20d71358-f074-4317-b0c8-a60170d9ec99","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/1048.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Tokyo\u2019s bond crash rattles global markets","related_issue":[105342],"teaser":"Investors are bracing for the end of the \u201cliquidity tap\u201d as Japanese yields hit 20-year highs"},"yoast_head":"\nJapanese government bond turmoil raises risks for JPY, carry trade, and US Treasuries - 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