{"id":105217,"date":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=105217"},"modified":"2026-03-11T03:51:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T03:51:44","slug":"saudis-gdp-growth-to-see-lowest-drag-in-the-region-oxford-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/03\/11\/saudis-gdp-growth-to-see-lowest-drag-in-the-region-oxford-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi\u2019s GDP growth to see lowest drag in the region -Oxford Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saudi Arabia is set to weather the US-Iran conflict with significantly more <\/strong>resi<\/strong>lience than its neighbors<\/strong>, with Oxford Economics trimming its growth forecast for the year 0.5 percentage points \u2014 one of the least drastic downgrades compared to its GCC peers \u2014 according to a research note (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Kingdom\u2019s strategic geography allows it to find a way around the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz by pivoting to Red Sea ports<\/strong>, the note explains. As the largest oil exporter in the region, the Kingdom could reroute the majority of its 5-6 mn bbl \/ d through the East-West pipeline and the Red Sea, according to the note. While this shift requires managing logistical constraints \u2014 including storage capacity and shipping turnarounds at Red Sea terminals \u2014 it provides a critical relief valve that other Gulf producers lack.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>Saudi Arabia\u2019s capacity to sustain export volumes enables it to capitalize on rising oil prices, prompting Oxford Economics to upgrade the Kingdom\u2019s 2026 budget balance forecast by 0.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n

!_SubHeadl_! The GCC at large<\/strong><\/p>\n

The aggregate real GDP growth forecast for the GCC has been lowered by 1.8 percentage points to 2.6% in <\/strong>2026<\/a> . <\/strong>While growth is expected to hit a low point of 2.3% y-o-y in 2Q 2026, a gradual recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year. This is projected to lead to a \u201ccatch-up\u201d growth in 2027, for which the forecast has been raised by 1 percentage point.<\/p>\n

The tourism hit: <\/strong>The sector, which is a major non-energy contributor in the region, is expected to see an 11% decline in passenger arrivals in 2026, a 19 pp downgrade from pre-war baselines, as airspace closures and security concerns halt the Gulf stopover model. <\/p>\n

The 2026 GCC annual CPI inflation forecast has been revised up by 0.2 pps to 2.5%.<\/strong> While governments are regulating prices for essentials (fuel, dairy, meat), the prices of non-essential goods are expected to rise due to supply shortages and the higher costs associated with rerouting cargo around the conflict zone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GCC GDP forecast has been slashed to 2.6% from 4.4%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,335],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-105217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-gdp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c0b11c51-4d68-4d5b-920b-621ed4531fb9","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/9\/807.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Economy to show resilience, says Oxford Economics","related_issue":[105210],"teaser":"GCC GDP forecast has been slashed to 2.6% from 4.4%"},"yoast_head":"\nSaudi\u2019s GDP growth to see lowest drag in the region -Oxford Economics - 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