{"id":105215,"date":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=105215"},"modified":"2026-03-11T05:03:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T05:03:05","slug":"aramco-heads-into-2026-on-solid-ground-but-warns-of-severe-consequences-for-hormuz-closure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/03\/11\/aramco-heads-into-2026-on-solid-ground-but-warns-of-severe-consequences-for-hormuz-closure\/","title":{"rendered":"Aramco heads into 2026 on solid ground \u2014 but warns of \u201csevere consequences\u201d for Hormuz closure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Saudi Aramco\u2019s 2025 earnings featured resilient cashflows, a dividend hike, and <\/strong><strong>the company\u2019s first-ever share buyback.<\/strong> However, the balance sheet took a backseat to CEO Amin Nasser\u2019s blunt assessment of the ongoing conflict with Iran: the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the \u201cbiggest crisis\u201d the region\u2019s energy sector has ever faced.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The oil giant is projecting a narrative of financial fortress-building<\/strong> while simultaneously executing an aggressive physical supply-chain pivot \u2014 actively draining global storage to meet customer obligations, capping production of certain crude grades, and maxing out its cross-country pipeline infrastructure to bypass the Arabian Gulf entirely.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">By the numbers<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Net income for 2025 <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.saudiexchange.sa\/wps\/portal\/saudiexchange\/newsandreports\/issuer-news\/issuer-announcements\/issuer-announcements-details\/?anId=93573&amp;anCat=1&amp;cs=2222&amp;locale=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">landed at USD 93.4 bn<\/a><\/strong>, a 12% y-o-y decrease driven largely by weaker crude and refining prices. Crude averaged USD 69.20 \/ bbl in 2025, down from USD 80.20 in 2024. However, adjusted net income came in at a robust USD 104.7 bn. Aramco generated USD 136.2 bn in operating cashflow last year, leaving USD 85.4 bn in FCF.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The payout: <\/strong>Shareholders \u2014 primarily the government and the Public Investment Fund, which together hold over 97% of the company \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.saudiexchange.sa\/wps\/portal\/saudiexchange\/newsandreports\/issuer-news\/issuer-announcements\/issuer-announcements-details\/?anId=93574&amp;anCat=1&amp;cs=2222&amp;locale=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">will see a 3.5% bump<\/a> in 4Q base dividends to USD 21.89 bn. Total distributions for 2025 hit USD 85.5 bn, down from over USD 120 bn last year. Aramco also announced it\u2019s launching a USD 3 bn share buyback over 18 months, a first for the energy giant.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Why a buyback now? <\/strong>Aramco\u2019s gearing ratio \u2014 a measure of indebtedness \u2014 dropped to a remarkably low 3.8%. The company traditionally favored dividends to fund the Kingdom\u2019s multi-tn USD economic diversification plans. However, while Aramco shares have risen over 12% this year amid geopolitical premiums, they have lagged behind Western supermajors like Shell and ExxonMobil. The buyback \u2014 though a drop in the bucket for a USD 1.7 tn company \u2014 signals a bid to tighten the freefloat and convey absolute confidence to institutional investors during a period of extreme regional volatility.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The Yanbu pivot<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>With Iranian threats and military <\/strong><strong>action effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping<\/strong>, Aramco is aggressively rerouting crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The math: <\/strong>Nasser confirmed that the East-West pipeline will max out its 7 mn bbl \/ d capacity within days to bypass the Arabian Gulf. Aramco typically exports about 7 mn bbl \/ d, relying heavily on its east coast terminals, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-10\/saudi-aramco-to-buyback-3-billion-of-shares-raises-dividend\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a>. Some 2 mn bbl \/ d is immediately absorbed by domestic refineries on the west coast \u2014 leaving Aramco scrambling to push the remaining volume onto the global market from a coast not traditionally built to handle the entirety of the Kingdom\u2019s export capacity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>M<\/strong><strong>ore than 25 supertankers are currently Yanbu-bound<\/strong>, which will grant Saudi Arabia the capacity to ship 50 mn barrels from the Red Sea port, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-10\/oil-tanker-armada-heads-to-red-sea-as-saudis-divert-from-hormuz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing its ship-tracking data. The actual size of the flotilla is unclear as some vessels do not reveal their destinations during wars and conflicts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Oil expo<\/strong><strong>rts through Yanbu averaged 2.2 mn bbl \/ d in the first nine days of <\/strong><strong>March<\/strong>, and are on track to reach a monthly high, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/saudi-red-sea-oil-exports-hit-record-high-march-shipping-data-shows-2026-03-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a> reports, citing shipping data. Yanbu\u2019s capacity can handle upwards of 4.5 mn bbl \/ d, traders told Reuters.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>REMEMBER-<\/strong> Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world\u2019s daily oil supply. The ongoing conflict has forced Middle Eastern producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, to slash production. Saudi alone is reducing output by as much as 2.5 mn bbl \/ d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Aramco is prioritizing its most plentiful Arab Light and Extra Light grades through the <\/strong><strong>pipeline<\/strong>, Nasser said. The company has paused utilization of medium and heavy crude grades because there isn\u2019t an adequate alternative export capacity to get them to market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>MEANWHILE-<\/strong> The massive Ras Tanura refinery only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/news\/dow-jones\/202603102102\/saudi-aramco-says-ras-tanura-refinery-restarts-after-drone-attack-update\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">restarted production yesterday<\/a>, following a direct Iranian drone attack last week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">What\u2019s next? Catastrophic consequences, says Nasser<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The CEO did not mince words regarding the macro outlook<\/strong>, warning of \u201ccatastrophic consequences\u201d for the global economy if the blockade drags on. Oil prices briefly touched USD 120 \/ bbl on Monday \u2014 the highest since June 2022 \u2014 before pulling back to USD 87.8 after the US hinted at a potential de-escalation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>A temporary solution: <\/strong>Aramco is currently draining its global storage inventories located outside the Kingdom to meet customer obligations without Gulf shipping. Still, \u201cthat cannot be used [\u2026] for an extended period of time,\u201d Nasser said in the earnings call.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Global spare capacity is heavily concentrated in the GCC. <\/strong>If the market tightens further due to demand spikes or additional supply shocks elsewhere, the barrels needed to balance the market are physically locked behind the contested waterway.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The impact? <\/strong>Some 350 mn bbl of disruptions will eventually come off the market \u2014 even with the Yanbu pivot, Nasser said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Not just an energy story: <\/strong>The war is already causing \u201ca severe chain reaction\u201d and \u201ca drastic domino effect\u201d on multiple sectors, including \u201caviation, agriculture, automotive, and other industries,\u201d Nasser said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Some <\/strong><strong>good news: <\/strong>Nasser <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zawya.com\/en\/projects\/oil-and-gas\/aramco-says-major-projects-on-track-despite-regional-tensions-upstream-to-drive-capex-btke67t5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">confirmed<\/a> that the oil giant\u2019s major oil, gas, and downstream projects remain unaffected by the war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Aramco CEO predicts catastrophic consequences if the current blockade drags on<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105269,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4693],"tags":[1435,285,10,4838,2687,523,4692],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-105215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-amin-nasser","tag-earnings-watch","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-news-lead","tag-oil","tag-saudi-aramco","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"141c3fc3-70fb-4035-8b69-984a29343c05","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Earnings, 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