{"id":103608,"date":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/01\/04\/another-grim-year-ahead-for-the-usd\/"},"modified":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T00:00:00","slug":"another-grim-year-ahead-for-the-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/01\/04\/another-grim-year-ahead-for-the-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Another grim year ahead for the USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD opened 2026 with a modest rebound, doing little to repair the damage from last<\/strong> year. <\/strong>The USD index edged up 0.24% on Friday to 98.48, after closing out 2025 with a 9.5% drop \u2014 its steepest annual decline since 2017, Reuters<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

The slide was driven by mounting unease over President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war,<\/strong> surging US debt, and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.<\/strong> \u201cThis has been one of the worst years for USD performance in the history of freefloating exchange rates,\u201d Deutsche Bank\u2019s George Saravelos told the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A rebound from a deep hole:<\/strong> The USD hit its low point in September, down 15% against major currencies after Trump launched his sweeping April tariffs. It has since rebounded by 2.5%, as US recession fears eased, though the recovery has been capped by the Fed\u2019s resumption of interest rate cuts, which kept the currency under pressure.<\/p>\n

AI saves the day \u2014 for now:<\/strong> Capital inflows into US equities tied to the AI boom have provided short-term support, with further investments expected this year \u2014 keeping US growth ahead of Europe\u2019s. The reopening of the US government and the impact of recently passed tax cuts could give growth \u2014 and the USD \u2014 a lift in 1Q, according to Brandywine Global<\/a>. However, that boost is likely to fade later in the year.<\/p>\n

\u2026 but the future still looks grim:<\/strong> Markets expect the Fed to deliver two or three quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, while other central banks are expected to hold or tighten policy. The Fed will introduce three rate cuts in 1H 2026, Moody\u2019s Analytics\u2019 Chief Economist Mark Zandi told CNBC<\/a>, citing a weakening labor market, political pressure, and inflation uncertainty. FX strategists continue to forecast a weaker USD through the year, according to a Reuters survey.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s fiscal stimulus, policy support in China, and improving eurozone growth are<\/strong> expected to narrow the US growth premium.<\/strong> \u201cWhen the rest of the world is starting to look better in terms of growth, that\u2019s favorable for the [USD] to continue to weaken,\u201d Amundi\u2019s Paresh Upadhyaya told Reuters.<\/p>\n

A pivotal month ahead:<\/strong> Markets are closely watching Trump\u2019s choice for the next Fed chair, expected this month, ahead of Jerome Powell\u2019s term ending in May. Powell has been under fire from Trump for not cutting rates more aggressively, but a successor<\/a> more receptive to White House pressure could weigh further on the currency. Short-term direction will also hinge on a heavy run of US data next week, including Friday\u2019s payrolls report.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,549<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,393<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,519<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

41,829<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,995<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: 0.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,114<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,858<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +0.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,951<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +0.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,850<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 60.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,330<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 91,293<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +4.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

920.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

14.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.9% (YTD: -2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 0.6% on Thursday<\/strong> on turnover of SAR 1.6 bn. The index is up 0.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Alkhaleej TRNG (+7.6%), CGS (+6.6%) and Abo Moati (+6.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Naseej (-2.4%), Gasco (-1.8%) and Nama Chemicals (-1.3%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 1.0% on Thursday<\/strong> on turnover of SAR 17.0 mn. The index is up 1.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Molan (+24.5%), Bena (+7.9%) and Hamad Bin Saedan Real Estate (+7.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Mayar (-9.6%), Horizon Educational (-8.2%) and Riyal (-7.4%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The USD index sustained its sharpest annual drop in in eight years<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":103609,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-103608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"952acb4d-ef87-4030-93be-eca901428a87","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/103.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"USD opens 2026 slightly higher, but after its worst annual drop since 2017","related_issue":[103596],"teaser":"The USD index sustained its sharpest annual drop in in eight years"},"yoast_head":"\nAnother grim year ahead for the USD? 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