{"id":103222,"date":"2025-12-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/12\/10\/bis-flags-bubble-like-conditions-in-gold-us-equities\/"},"modified":"2025-12-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T00:00:00","slug":"bis-flags-bubble-like-conditions-in-gold-us-equities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/12\/10\/bis-flags-bubble-like-conditions-in-gold-us-equities\/","title":{"rendered":"BIS flags bubble-like conditions in gold, US equities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Retail investors are helping push gold and US stocks into bubble territ<\/strong>ory, <\/strong>raising the risk of a sharp reversal, the Bank for International Settlements\u2019 (BIS) warns in its quarterly review<\/a>. BIS pointed to signs of exuberance \u2014 including rapid price appreciation, elevated valuations, and media hype \u2014 with gold up 60% YTD, its strongest performance since 1979, and S&P 500 seeing annual gains of 17% while Nasdaq is up 22%.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Institutional pulls back, retail all in: <\/strong>Retail investors accounted for most of the inflows into gold and US equity funds over the past three months, while institutional investors either pared back or held steady \u2014 a dynamic the BIS says could heighten volatility if herd behavior triggers fire sales.<\/p>\n

A double whammy: <\/strong>This is the first time in at least five decades that equities and gold have hit bubble indicators simultaneously, the bank noted. While gold eased to USD 4.2k this week from an October record of USD 4.4k per oz, inflows into gold ETFs are set for a record year. <\/p>\n

Central bank buying of gold \u2014 traditionally a safe haven \u2014 to hedge against a weak USD, inflation concerns, and debt worries have all given the rally a boost<\/strong>. The concern? Bullion has a history of boom-bust cycles when subsequent corrections erased gains by up to 30%.<\/p>\n

On equities<\/strong>, the bank warned that big tech-led gains \u2014 fueled by AI enthusiasm \u2014 have pushed valuations to stretched levels, heightening the risk of a disorderly correction with broader market spillovers.<\/p>\n

Still, Wall Street analysts expect the S&P 500 to extend its rally into 2026<\/strong> and gain around 10%, with big tech leading gains despite concerns over high AI spending, the Financial Times<\/a> reported elsewhere. Analysts cited supportive fiscal policy, potential Fed rate cuts, and gains from AI deployment. <\/p>\n

We dove into why the AI hype may be masking underlying risks of an AI bubble recently<\/strong>, after skeptics warned the rally rests on short-lived GPU infrastructure<\/a> and extended depreciation schedules, raising the risk that reported revenues overstate underlying economics. Investor Michael Burry has reportedly placed a USD 1.1 bn short against Nvidia and Palantir, a sign that a mass write-down could be incoming.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are a sea of red this morning<\/strong>, as Chinese inflation rose to its highest since February. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng was down 0.6%, while China\u2019s CSI 300 lost 0.8%. Over on Wall Street<\/strong>, futures are hovering near the flatline after US indices logged minor changes yesterday, with the S&P down marginally and the Nasdaq up 0.1%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,699.79<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: -11.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,404<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,919<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -24.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

41,941<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +41.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,989<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +6.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,045<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +17.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,841<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +16.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,642<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +18.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,718<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +18.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.08<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.58<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,245<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 92,239<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.4% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

916.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +1.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.62<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.93<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: -2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 0.7% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 4.0 bn. The index is down 11.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> NCLE (+8.1%), Saudi Re (+4.9%), and YC (+4.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Aljazira Reit (-2.4%), Derayah Reit (-1.8%), and Qacco (-1.8%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> closed flat yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 16.2 mn. The index is down 24.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Sign World (+15.7%), Time (+6.6%), and Hamad Bin Saedan Real Estate (+5.9%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Meyar (-10.0%), Sahat Almajd (-5.5%), and Leaf (-5.1%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>Saudi Industrial Investment Group<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s board greenlit a SAR 167.1 mn dividend payout<\/strong> for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.25 apiece<\/strong>, it said in a filing to the bourse<\/a> yesterday. The distribution date is set for Tuesday, 30 December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bank noted this is the first time in at least five decades that equities and gold have hit bubble indicators simultaneously<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":103223,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2439,1524,10,3809,55,2480,2689,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-103222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-ai","tag-commodities","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-equities","tag-financial-markets","tag-gold","tag-investment","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c83f0dc6-e808-423f-a312-367926abadfb","order":"12","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/12\/586.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"BIS flags bubble-like conditions in gold, US equities","related_issue":[103201],"teaser":"The bank noted this is the first time in at least five decades that equities and gold have hit bubble indicators simultaneously","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/12\/.83a80916-069d-40fa-a0b4-9ab8e676767b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBIS flags bubble-like conditions in gold, US equities - 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