{"id":102819,"date":"2025-11-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/26\/global-growth-to-hold-steady-in-2026-but-risks-are-rising-oxford-economics\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T00:00:00","slug":"global-growth-to-hold-steady-in-2026-but-risks-are-rising-oxford-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/26\/global-growth-to-hold-steady-in-2026-but-risks-are-rising-oxford-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"Global growth to hold steady in 2026, but risks are rising -Oxford Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global growth proved more resilient than expected in 2025<\/strong>, holding steady at around 2.8% despite political and trade uncertainty following Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House, according to Oxford Economics\u2019 2026 global outlook<\/a>. Looking ahead, the global economy faces a set of intertwined challenges \u2014 from shifting trade dynamics to the uncertain path of AI investment and fiscal policy.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Trade tensions are entering a new phase:<\/strong> After a year dominated by tariff hikes, the focus in 2026 is shifting toward their long-term ripple effects. The US economy is likely to remain relatively insulated, supported by strong household spending and looser fiscal policy. But higher tariffs are expected to weigh on imports, limiting the extent to which US demand can lift global trade. China, on the other hand, is doubling down on manufacturing-led growth and boosting exports even under heavy tariff pressure \u2014 a trend that\u2019s driving down global prices and increasing competition in advanced economies. As Chinese exporters move further up the value chain, deflationary pressures are set to hit manufacturers in Europe and North Asia hardest.<\/p>\n

AI could either steady or shake global growth: <\/strong>AI investment has been one of the biggest drivers of growth over the past year, cushioning the US economy and fueling demand across Asia\u2019s semiconductor and tech sectors. But 2026 could be more volatile, as analysts see room for another surge in AI-related capital spending that could push US GDP growth as high as 3%, compared to a baseline forecast of 2.3%. Still, the boom is entering a riskier phase as financing shifts from banknotes to debt. A sudden correction could slow the US growth to below 1%, with global spillovers to follow.<\/p>\n

Fiscal policy takes center stage: <\/strong>While interest rate cuts will continue at a measured pace, they\u2019re unlikely to have a major impact on global growth in 2026. Fiscal policy, not monetary easing, will be the key driver. Despite concerns about debt sustainability in the US, UK, and parts of Europe, governments are expected to keep spending relatively loose, with a slightly positive global fiscal impulse led by China. The bigger risk is not tightening, but rather fiscal expansion \u2014 particularly if major economies opt to support growth through higher spending.<\/p>\n

Global GDP growth is expected to remain around 2.7% next year <\/strong>\u2014 steady overall but uneven across regions. The US is set to remain the outlier, supported by fiscal spending and AI investment. China\u2019s growth is expected to stabilize, though at the cost of intensifying competition for manufacturers elsewhere. Europe and Japan will continue to lag as long-term structural challenges persist. Behind the stable headline numbers, 2026 will see deeper global imbalances and different paths for major economies.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are firmly in the green this morning <\/strong>with indices riding the tech-driven rally on Wall Street. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is leading gains, up 2.0%, with the Kospi trailing behind, up 1.9%. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are looking at more modest gains.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,687<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5% (YTD: -11.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,398<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: -111.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24,054<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -23.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

39,903<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +34.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,761<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,823<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +13.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,766<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +15.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,610<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +17.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,574<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +13.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,171<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 87,366<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: -6.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

919.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.23<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +8.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.56<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-9.6% (YTD: +7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 1.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.0 bn. The index is down 11.2% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Amak (+7.7%), Bonyan Reit (+3.0%) and Taiba (+2.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>AZM (-6.1%), Alrajhi Takaful (-5.7%) and ELM (-5.7%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 19.3 mn. The index is down 23.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Naba Alsaha (+9.9%), Horizon Educational (+8.0%) and Service Equipment (+7.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> NAF (-10.0%), Alrasheed (-9.9%) and NGDC (-6.6%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

S<\/strong>audi Industrial Development Company\u2019s<\/strong> shareholders subscribed to 11.1 mn of the <\/strong>16.5 <\/strong>mn<\/strong> shares offered under the firm\u2019s rights issue<\/strong>, equivalent to 67.15% of the offering and valued at SAR 110.8 mn, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The remaining rump shares (5.4 mn) will be offered to institutional investors from 27 to 30 November. Allocation will be based on the highest offers at or above the offer price, with any unsubscribed shares then being transferred to the underwriter, Alinma Capital.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global growth is expected to hold steady next year, but diverging trends in trade, technology, and fiscal policy will shape a more uneven global landscape<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102820,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2439,27,10,779,59,309],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-102819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-ai","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-planet-finance","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"16022123-a832-4912-9739-0db32f6b4d5b","order":"14","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/11\/1979.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Global growth to hold steady in 2026, but risks are rising -Oxford Economics","related_issue":[102794],"teaser":"Global growth is expected to hold steady next year, but diverging trends in trade, technology, and fiscal policy will shape a more uneven global landscape","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.5bf7a5c7-53f2-4740-94e4-7bdb3b5df6ed.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal growth to hold steady in 2026, but risks are rising -Oxford Economics - 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