{"id":102434,"date":"2025-11-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/13\/emerging-market-disinflation-momentum-outpaces-developed-nations-boosting-local-bonds\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T00:00:00","slug":"emerging-market-disinflation-momentum-outpaces-developed-nations-boosting-local-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/13\/emerging-market-disinflation-momentum-outpaces-developed-nations-boosting-local-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging market disinflation momentum outpaces developed nations, boosting local bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"

A reversal in global inflation trends is pushing investors to look toward <\/strong>emerging market bonds for better returns<\/strong>, and many \u2014 including Ninety One and Morgan Stanley Investment Management \u2014 see plenty of road ahead for the rally to continue, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

For the first time in 35 years \u2014 bar a small Covid-era blip \u2014 prices grew slower in <\/strong>emerging nations than their developed counterparts for two straight quarters<\/strong>, according to indexes tracked by the business news service\u2019s mighty terminal. During 3Q, inflation in EMs averaged 2.5%, while developed nations saw prices rise at an average of 3.3%<\/p>\n

Lower EM inflation has cranked up forecasts of interest rate cuts<\/strong>, with the list of emerging nations deciding to begin cutting rates growing and their central banks cutting at a faster speed than the US. But there\u2019s still plenty of wiggle room, according to Ninety One Emerging Market Sovereign and FX Co-Head Grant Webster, who estimates that real policy rates in EMs are their highest in 20+ years.<\/p>\n

In turn, this has helped push the average returns on EM local bonds in some countries <\/strong>like Egypt to over 20%. <\/strong>The average across all EMs comes out at around 7%, which is a decent peg above US Treasuries for the year so far. Good news for EM local bonds is also good news for EM currencies, with many strengthening against the greenback following investor appetite for their debt.<\/p>\n

EM disinflation outpacing developed nations is also helping increase interest in assets<\/strong> outside of Wall Street and Europe. <\/strong>The difference in risk between equities from EMs and developed countries is narrowing, and the \u201cemerging world looks relatively less risky than DM for the first time in a long time,\u201d Allspring Global Investments Senior Portfolio Manager Derrick Irwin told the outlet.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning<\/strong> as investors react to the US House passing a funding bill that will end the government shutdown. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is leading gains, up 0.3%, with the Shanghai Composite and Kopsi trailing behind. The Hang Seng is in the red, down 0.5%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,255<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -6.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,465<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -3.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24,137<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -23.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

40,229<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +35.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,994<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +6.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,042<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +17.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,851<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +16.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,911<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +21.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,787<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +18.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.71<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,205<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 101,605<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +8.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

916.29<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +1.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +8.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Fear gauge)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.3% (YTD: +0.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.1% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 4.2 bn. The index is down 6.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> SVCP (+5.8%), Derayah (+5.0%) and SRMG (+4.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Sisco Holding (-4.4%), Saic (-3.9%) and Jahez (-3.4%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.2% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 22 mn. The index is down 23.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Apico (+8.6%), Alrazi (+6.7%) and Axelerated Solutions (+6.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Hamad Bin Saedan Real Estate (-8.4%), HKC (-8.1%) and NBM (-7.5%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

United Wire Factories<\/a><\/strong>\u2019 (Aslak) board greenlit a SAR 14 mn dividend <\/strong>payout<\/strong> on 4Q 2024 retained earnings and 9M 2025 income at SAR 0.5 apiece<\/strong>, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a> yesterday. The distribution date is set for Monday, 8 December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some emerging market local bonds have delivered 20%+ returns in Egypt, Brazil, and others<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102435,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2441,670,10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-102434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"15c7d8e7-3be9-47f2-a9ea-a5fbfa131a26","order":"15","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/156.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Emerging market disinflation momentum outpaces developed nations, boosting local bonds","related_issue":[102407],"teaser":"Some emerging market local bonds have delivered 20%+ returns in Egypt, Brazil, and others","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.852555f7-b7da-4126-b79f-a3c6d63e0285.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEmerging market disinflation momentum outpaces developed nations, boosting local bonds - 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