{"id":102242,"date":"2025-11-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/09\/planned-fiscal-tightening-is-critical-to-keep-saudi-arabias-deficit-in-check-capital-economics\/"},"modified":"2025-11-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T00:00:00","slug":"planned-fiscal-tightening-is-critical-to-keep-saudi-arabias-deficit-in-check-capital-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/11\/09\/planned-fiscal-tightening-is-critical-to-keep-saudi-arabias-deficit-in-check-capital-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"Planned fiscal tightening is critical to keep Saudi Arabia's deficit in check -Capital Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>With lower oil revenues driving Saudi Arabia\u2019s twin budget and current <\/strong>account deficits, the government needs to push ahead with its planned fiscal consolidation<\/strong> to keep the public debt-to-GDP ratio in check, Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston said in a research note<\/a>. The Kingdom risks an even wider budget deficit next year \u2014 particularly with continued pressure from lower oil revenues \u2014 without these measures, Swanston says.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Saudi\u2019s budget deficit widened to SAR 88.5 bn in 3Q in 2025, up from SAR 34.5 bn in 2Q, according to the Finance Ministry\u2019s quarterly budget performance report released last week<\/a>. The highest-in-five-years deficit was driven by a 13% y-o-y decline in revenues during the quarter, while expenditures increased 6% y-o-y. Oil revenues, which represented around 56% of the total government revenues in 3Q, went down by 21% y-o-y, while non-oil revenues were up by 1%, supported by increased tax collections. The Finance Ministry expects<\/a> the budget deficit to narrow by 2.0 percentage points in 2026 to 3.3% of GDP, compared to the 5.3% deficit the government is forecasting for 2025.<\/p>\n

Without fiscal consolidation measures in place, Saudi Arabia\u2019s budget deficit will widen<\/strong> further to 6.0% of GDP in 2026<\/strong>, while the current account deficit will also be on track to widen to 4.5%, according to Swanston. The World Bank also expects<\/a> Saudi Arabia\u2019s fiscal deficit to widen next year on the back of oil prices.<\/p>\n

This forecast comes as Capital Economics expects weaker oil revenues to persist<\/strong>, with oil prices expected to average USD 55 \/ bbl and oil export receipts forecast to drop by 4-5% of GDP. That\u2019s below the IMF\u2019s forecast<\/a>, which sees oil prices dropping to USD 66 \/ bbl in 2026 before stabilizing in that range through to 2030.<\/p>\n

Non-oil sector also <\/strong>seen<\/strong> softening:<\/strong> \u201cWeaker oil export receipts will reinforce the need for fiscal consolidation and will more than offset any boost from looser monetary policy, resulting in softer non-oil GDP growth,\u201d Swanston previously said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The upside:<\/strong> Despite the twin deficits, the Kingdom maintains a strong financial position thanks to the substantial FX assets held by Sama and PIF, Swanston notes. With this strong position in hand, the government could have the financial capacity to draw on more debt, which could risk its debt-to-GDP ratio, already projected to reach 40% of GDP by 2027.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT-<\/strong> The Kingdom plans<\/a> to continue utilizing debt markets to meet its financing needs. This strategy is supported by its strong fiscal foundation, which enables it to preserve its reserves and utilize \"additional fiscal space\" to bridge funding deficits. The Finance Ministry will implement an annual medium-term borrowing plan to enhance debt sustainability and broaden its funding base through access to global debt markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The agency forecasts the Kingdom\u2019s budget deficit to widen to 6.0% of GDP and its current account deficit to hit 4.5% in 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102243,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,335,2482],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-102242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-gdp","tag-non-oil-sector","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c63529c9-5a82-4bcb-866d-036672b6322b","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/936.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Planned fiscal tightening is critical to keep Saudi Arabia's deficit in check -Capital Economics","related_issue":[102235],"teaser":"The agency forecasts the Kingdom\u2019s budget deficit to widen to 6.0% of GDP and its current account deficit to hit 4.5% in 2026","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/11\/.8e867fa6-873d-4d3d-8461-72d30b9ce800.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nPlanned fiscal tightening is critical to keep Saudi Arabia's deficit in check -Capital Economics - 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