{"id":101733,"date":"2025-10-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/23\/bmi-sees-our-gdp-growth-accelerating-to-4-1-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T00:00:00","slug":"bmi-sees-our-gdp-growth-accelerating-to-4-1-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/23\/bmi-sees-our-gdp-growth-accelerating-to-4-1-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"BMI sees our GDP growth accelerating to 4.1% in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>Fitch Solutions\u2019 research unit BMI expects Saudi Arabia\u2019s GDP growth to reach<\/strong> 4.1% in <\/strong>2026<\/strong>, accelerating 0.3 percentage points increase from the 3.8% growth BMI expects to see in 2025<\/a>. The higher 2026 growth rate will come on the back of accelerated oil production, with production rates expected to rise 5.2% in 2026, compared to 4.5% in 2025, MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

The non-oil sector is seen growing at a 3.7% clip next year, with the fiscal deficit <\/strong>expected to narrow from the 4.6% it\u2019s seen recording in 2025<\/strong>, BMI said. This deficit will come as the positive effect of higher oil output will be somewhat dampened by lower oil prices. <\/p>\n

This projection comes in line with recent Finance Ministry <\/strong>estimates<\/a><\/strong>, which see the deficit narrowing to 3.3% of GDP in 2026 from the 5.3% estimate for 2025. As a result of \u201cthe sustained deficits,\u201d BMI sees the debt-to-GDP ratio rising in 2026 to 30.5%, compared to 29.2% in 2025.<\/p>\n

BMI also expects inflation in the Kingdom to cool to an annual average of 2.0% in 2025<\/strong>, with a deceleration in 4Q expected on the back of government measures to stabilize the household market with the introduction of a five-year rent freeze in Riyadh<\/a>. <\/p>\n

REGIONALLY- <\/strong>GCC growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% next year,<\/strong> up from 3.9% projected in 2025, with the uptick driven mainly by the accelerated phasing out of Opec+ production cuts, and robust performance of the region\u2019s non-oil sectors due to the strong spending on projects as the states sustain their diversification efforts. Inflation in the GCC could also pick up to 1.8% in 2026 as a result of global food price increases, but \u201cwill remain benign and slightly lower than historical average.\u201d<\/p>\n

MENA region growth is also expected to accelerate for the second consecutive <\/strong>year to hit 3.6% in 2026, <\/strong>up from 3% in 2025, supported by stronger growth forecasts across most countries in the region, BMI Analysts said in the webinar. The growth in North Africa is projected to be 4.1% in 2026, up from 4% in 2025, driven by the faster growth in Egypt, Ramona said. <\/p>\n

The upgrade is underpinned by<\/strong>:<\/p>\n