{"id":101481,"date":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/15\/imf-upgrades-global-growth-forecast-warns-of-tariffs-and-ai-bubble\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","slug":"imf-upgrades-global-growth-forecast-warns-of-tariffs-and-ai-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/15\/imf-upgrades-global-growth-forecast-warns-of-tariffs-and-ai-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>The IMF upgrades global growth forecast: <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its July estimates<\/a>, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. The fund expects growth to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

Behind the steady outlook:<\/strong> The IMF said global activity has held up better than expected despite trade policy shifts, supported by lower-than-expected tariff rates, an agile private sector that front-loaded imports and rerouted supply chains, a weaker dollar, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, and an AI-driven investment boom. \u201cSo bottom line: not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need,\u201d Reuters<\/a> quotes the IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas as saying earlier this week.<\/p>\n

MENA gets an upgrade: <\/strong>The MENA region is expected to log a 3.3% growth this year, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from July projections. Growth is set to accelerate next year to 3.7%, a 0.3 point upgrade. The IMF cited Saudi Arabia\u2019s fast-than-anticipated oil production hikes and Egypt\u2019s better-than-expected outrun in the first half of the year as the main drivers of the upgrade.<\/p>\n

Major economies saw mixed revisions: <\/strong>The IMF now expects the US to grow 2.0% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its July forecast, while Japan\u2019s 2025 growth got an upgrade by 0.4 percentage point to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the fund lowered its forecast for Canada\u2019s growth by 0.4 percentage point to 1.2%, and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%.<\/p>\n

China and India also see stronger outlooks: <\/strong>China\u2019s 2025 outlook stayed unchanged at 4.8% on the back of increased exports that the IMF says were unsustainable, pointing at the country\u2019s contracting real estate sector pushing its economy to \u201cthe edge of debt-deflation trap,\u201d Gourinchas noted. Meanwhile, India\u2019s growth forecast rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for 2025, while the 2026 growth outlook got a downward revision to 6.2%, from earlier forecasts of 6.4%.<\/p>\n

Across the Atlantic: <\/strong>Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.2% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from July, buoyed by Germany\u2019s fiscal expansion and Spain\u2019s growing momentum. The IMF expects the area\u2019s growth to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.2% in the previous forecast.<\/p>\n

Trade remains a swing factor: <\/strong>The fund projects global trade volumes to grow 3.6% in 2025,, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes. This front-loading effect will likely carry over into 2026, with trade growth forecast to rise to 2.3% \u2014 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous projection.<\/p>\n

AI bubble is a major downside risk<\/strong>: Growing investments in AI echothe dot-com boom of the late 1990s, Gourinchas said in a blogpost<\/a>. \u201dMarkets could reprice sharply, especially if AI fails to justify lofty profit expectations. That would dent wealth and curb consumption, with adverse effects potentially reverberating through the financial system,\u201d Gourinchas added.<\/p>\n

The inflation outlook: <\/strong>Global headline inflation is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, \u201cvirtually unchanged\u201d from July\u2019s or April\u2019s projections. Inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while easing in Europe and Asia, indicating lower growth performances.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are inching higher this morning<\/strong>, as Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is up 1.6% in early trading, while Japan\u2019s Nikkei is up 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are subdued following a volatile session fueled by US-China trade concerns.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,596<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,510<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25,689<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -18.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.75% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

37,459<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +26.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,111<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,033<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +17.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,644<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +13.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,453<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +15.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,552<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +13.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62.28<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.01<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,178<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 113,327<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.9% (YTD: +21.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

922.54<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +2.26%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +7.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.81<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+9.4% (YTD: +19.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>remained unchanged yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of SAR 5.8 bn. The index is down 3.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Abo Moati (+5.0%), Almawarid (+4.4%) and Petro Rabigh (+4.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Naseej (-8.3%), Cenomi Retail (-3.7%) and Senaat (-3.2%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> fell 0.4% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of SAR 40 mn. The index is down 18.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Lamasat (+9.8%), Alqemem (+5.9%) and Aictec (+5.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> CMCER (-8.9%), Alrashid Industrial (-7.7%) and Wajd Life (-6.5%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fund upgrades its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101482,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,1559,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-101481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-international-monetary-fund-imf","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ead12b83-b3b4-44c9-8881-5a9daf86e0ee","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/8\/185.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble","related_issue":[101462],"teaser":"The Fund upgrades its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.4caca1d2-e6de-45fb-848a-de1a09d7cd45.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nIMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble - 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