{"id":101467,"date":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/15\/sp-forecasts-strong-non-oil-growth-for-saudi-arabia-amidst-widening-deficits\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T00:00:00","slug":"sp-forecasts-strong-non-oil-growth-for-saudi-arabia-amidst-widening-deficits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/10\/15\/sp-forecasts-strong-non-oil-growth-for-saudi-arabia-amidst-widening-deficits\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P forecasts strong non-oil growth for Saudi Arabia amidst widening deficits"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saudi Arabia\u2019s non-oil economy is projected to make up 57% of the nation's GDP in 2025<\/strong>, underscoring the steady progress in the Kingdom\u2019s economic diversification efforts, S&P Global Ratings<\/a> said in its latest report. While the figure is likely to fluctuate with oil price volatility, the broader shift toward a more balanced economic model is helping to reduce the Kingdom\u2019s exposure to external financial and commodity-related volatility.<\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

<\/strong>S&P Global raised its forecasts for the Kingdom\u2019s GDP growth in 2025 to 3.7% <\/strong>In June<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 up from a previous forecast of 3.5% a month earlier \u2014 reflecting stronger prospects for oil production and prices. The agency highlighted several domestic growth drivers underpinning this outlook, including the Public Investment Fund\u2019s USD 40 bn in annual diversification-led investments, the continued rise in female labor participation and home ownership, and a broader fiscal base following the introduction of VAT in 2018.<\/p>\n

Oil demand is expected to grow modestly over 2025-2026<\/strong>, albeit at a slower pace than the 1.1 mn bbl \/ d recorded last year. The market\u2019s surplus capacity \u2014 estimated at 5 mn bbl \/ d \u2014 is likely to widen after Opec+\u2019s decision to unwind 2.2 mn bbl \/ d of production cuts. S&P Global expects oil prices to soften later this year due to an increase in inventories, with Brent crude averaging around USD 60 per barrel before recovering by about USD 5 per barrel in 2026.<\/p>\n

Wider fiscal and external deficits are expected in the coming years<\/strong>, as softer oil revenues coincide with high public spending on infrastructure and development projects. Tthe Kingdom\u2019s net government asset buffers will gradually decline, but remain around 40% of GDP between 2025 and 2028 \u2014 a level it views as strong enough to support the sovereign credit profile, the agency said.<\/p>\n

The current account deficit is expected to persist at around 2.6% of GDP over the same period<\/strong>, with gross debt and banking system exposure set to increase moderately, reflecting ongoing financial needs tied to Vision 2030.
S&P Global projected <\/strong>In late July<\/a><\/strong> the fiscal deficits to average 4.4% of GDP<\/strong>, and the current account deficits to hover around 2.4% of GDP over 2025-2028, largely driven by spending on Vision 2030 projects, major international events, and rising imports for development projects. Gross external financing needs are expected to rise to 85% of current account receipts and usable reserves, up from 69% last year, supported by higher levels of short-term external debt issuance by local banks.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the banking sector remains resilient<\/strong>, as S&P Global expects banks\u2019 external debt to rise over the next 12-24 months but remain below 10% of total lending. Return on assets is expected to stay steady at 2.3% during the same period, as continued lending growth offsets the expected decline in interest rates. Interest costs for the government are also likely to stay below 5% of total revenues through 2028, given expectations that the US Federal Reserve interest rates will stabilize between 3.0% and 3.25% by 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This forecast comes as the Kingdom continues its efforts to diversify the economy and reduce its reliance on the oil sector<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":101468,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,335,2593,1002],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-101467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-gdp","tag-non-oil","tag-sp-global","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b2f4bbef-e9ef-4454-8d9d-cb4217221371","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/12\/778.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Saudi Arabia\u2019s non-oil economy to account for 57% of GDP in 2025 -S&P Global","related_issue":[101462],"teaser":"This forecast comes as the Kingdom continues its efforts to diversify the economy and reduce its reliance on the oil sector","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/10\/.eadff5ee-4f9e-4939-a8f3-10a780e6bcdc.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nS&P forecasts strong non-oil growth for Saudi Arabia amidst widening deficits - 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