{"id":100692,"date":"2025-09-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/09\/18\/saudi-could-join-jpmorgans-emgbi-in-january-2026\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T00:00:00","slug":"saudi-could-join-jpmorgans-emgbi-in-january-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/09\/18\/saudi-could-join-jpmorgans-emgbi-in-january-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi could join JPMorgan\u2019s EMGBI in January 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people.<\/strong> We\u2019re sliding into the weekend with a jam-packed issue, courtesy of Money 20\/20 going out with a bang, along with a big helping of updates from debt markets and beyond. <\/p>\n

The Saudi Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time this year<\/strong>, lowering them by 25 bps in line with the US Federal Reserve\u2019s move in its meeting yesterday, according to a statement<\/a>. The repo rate is now at 4.75% and the reverse repo rate is at 4.25%.<\/p>\n

The Fed\u2019s move is welcome news for many, including both the Gulf and <\/strong>US President Donald Trump. <\/strong>Lower rates mean cheaper debt, which would come at a time when Saudi Arabia\u2019s financing needs are at an all-time high as it looks to fund major national projects, and the UAE continues its drive to diversify its economy. <\/p>\n

While global markets\u2019 response was muted<\/strong>, they had largely priced in the move, with Wall Street mostly flat and seeing small losses. We have more on the Fed\u2019s decision \u2014 and what comes next for the Fed<\/strong>, as well as the expected impact on debt and capital markets in the region \u2014 in Planet Finance, below.<\/p>\n

<\/a> ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- Saudi Arabia inked a strategic mutual defense <\/strong>pact with <\/strong>Pakistan <\/strong>\u2014 a move analysts see as Riyadh signaling it wants to diversify its security ties after the shock of last week\u2019s Israeli strikes in Doha. The agreement commits the two countries to treat any attack on one as an attack on both. Saudi officials told the Financial Times<\/a> the agreement is meant to \u201creinforce our deterrence\u201d and reflects a broader rethink of Gulf security, as the Saudi Crown Prince hardens his stance on Israel\u2019s war in Gaza and delays any normalization talks with Netanyahu\u2019s government. (Reuters<\/a> | Washington Post<\/a>)<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/p>\n

Shares of <\/strong>Jamjoom Fashion Trading<\/a><\/strong> will begin trading on the Nomu parallel market<\/strong> today<\/strong>, with shares debuting at SAR 145 apiece, according to a bourse disclosure<\/a>. The company\u2019s shares can fluctuate within a \u00b130% range for the first three days, after which price fluctuations will be capped at \u00b110% as circuit breakers take effect.<\/p>\n

REFRESHER-<\/strong> The company is taking a 30% stake to Nomu in an offering that was 4.5x<\/a>oversubscribed<\/a>, pulling in SAR 1.6 bn in orders. The firm priced its shares at the top of the range it was guiding on<\/a> \u2014 implying SAR 345.7 mn in proceeds. The final price gives Jamjoom a market cap of SAR 1.15 bn at listing, according to our calculations.<\/p>\n

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WEATHER- <\/strong>Two more days of unclear skies:<\/strong> Thunderstorms and heavy downpours are expected to continue across Makkah, Asir, Jazan, Al Baha and Najran today, while Riyadh and the Eastern Province can expect lighter, steadier showers. Riyadh is expected to see a high of 41\u00b0C and a low of 25\u00b0C today, while Jeddah\u2019s mercury will go as high as 38\u00b0C and as low as 28\u00b0C. Makkah will see a 41\u00b0C high and 31\u00b0C low.<\/p>\n

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WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- J<\/strong>PMorgan<\/strong> is looking at placing Saudi Arabia in its emerging markets government bond<\/strong> index (EMGBI)<\/strong>, with the bulge bracket bank considering giving the country a 2% weighting on the index, Bloomberg<\/a> reported. The inclusion could happen \u201cas early as January next year \u2026 representing the entry of another meaningful emerging market to that mix,\u201d Emerging Market Corporate Debt co-head at Ninety One Alan Siow told Bloomberg Daybreak (watch, runtime: 4:54<\/a>). EMGBI tracks local-currency denominated sovereign bond issuances in emerging markets.<\/p>\n

Say hello to more capital flows:<\/strong> Inclusion in the index could see Saudi Arabia attracting some USD 5 bn (SAR 18.8 bn) in foreign inflows, according to Zawya<\/a>. Spreads on Saudi issuances have been declining despite an increase in supply, Siow said. This comes as expectations grow that the Kingdom may return to the market to meet rising funding needs.<\/p>\n

The SAR\u2019s inclusion in the index would, in some ways, mirror China\u2019s previous inclusion<\/strong> in the index<\/strong>, Siow said, noting that while the two markets are very different, both signal an early-stage opening of large domestic debt markets to international investors.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #2- Taiwan-based tech firm <\/strong>Foxconn<\/a><\/strong> plans for its Saudi<\/strong> Arabian JV Smart Mobility to begin building its first Middle East factory in December<\/strong> to produce electric vehicle chargers, with production set to start in 2026, Reuters<\/a> reports. The JV was first announced in November<\/a><\/a>.<\/p>\n

#3- The Shura Council approved the draft <\/strong>Unified Industrial Regulatory Law of GCC<\/strong> countries<\/strong>, during its first<\/a> and second<\/a> regular sessions of the new legislative year, according to two separate statements released on Tuesday. Council members called for faster ins. claims processing, integrated digital health files, clearer performance indicators to measure beneficiary satisfaction, regional competitiveness monitoring, and new financial tracks to support community-based innovation.<\/p>\n

#4- <\/strong>Smart parking company <\/strong>Samara Group<\/a><\/strong> plans to launch the largest smart parking<\/strong> project in the Kingdom and the Middle East next month in Riyadh<\/strong> with 800 parking spots, Mohamed Althaqfi, one of the group\u2019s owners, told Aleqtisadiah<\/a> yesterday. The company aims to expand its network to 10k\u201315k smart parking spots by 2030 and launch its first local factory within four years.<\/p>\n

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DATA POINTS-<\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- <\/strong>Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom fell 12.3% <\/strong>w-o-w in the week ending 13 September<\/strong>, reaching SAR 13.1 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank\u2019s weekly report (pdf)<\/a>. The number of weekly transactions also declined 4.7% w-o-w to about 231.1 mn during the week. <\/p>\n

The details: <\/strong>Food and beverages accounted for the largest share of consumer spending despite dropping 13.1% w-o-w to just under SAR 2.0 bn. Restaurants and cafes followed, down 6.1% w-o-w to just under SAR 1.6 bn. Transportation spending dropped 8.1% to SAR 966.8 mn, while professional and business services declined 13.8% to SAR 912.6 mn.<\/p>\n

Riyadh recorded the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.7 bn<\/strong>, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.9 bn.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #2- T<\/strong>he Kingdom led debt issuance activity in the region during 1H 2025, with total <\/strong>issuances reaching USD 55 bn<\/strong>, up from USD 49 bn in all of 2024, head of CEEMEA Debt Capital Markets at HSBC Khalid Darwish told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 7:43<\/a>). Major subscriptions to Aramco, the Finance Ministry, and the Public Investment Fund exceeded four to five times the amount offered. <\/p>\n

HSBC expects issuance momentum to continue in 2026<\/strong>, with refinancing of first- and second-tranche debt likely to reach around USD 15 bn, much of it in the Kingdom, depending on market conditions and interest rates.<\/p>\n

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#3- Saudi Arabia\u2019s<\/strong> cybersecurity market grew 14% in 2024, bringing the sector\u2019s total <\/strong>spending to SAR 15.2 bn<\/strong>, the National Cybersecurity Authority said in a statement<\/a> yesterday. Public sector spending amounted to SAR 4.8 bn (32% of the market), while private sector spending totaled SAR 10.3 bn, accounting for the remaining 68% of the market. The sector contributed SAR 18.5 bn to GDP \u2014 SAR 9 bn directly and SAR 9.5 bn indirectly \u2014 representing 0.40% of total GDP and 0.71% of non-oil GDP. <\/p>\n

#4-<\/strong> The <\/strong>Ab<\/a><\/strong>sher<\/a><\/strong> platform processed over 41.1 mn digital transactions in August<\/strong>, the Interior Ministry said in a press release<\/a>. Individuals completed more than 38.4 mn transactions, including 3.8 mn via digital wallets, while businesses carried out nearly 2.7 mn transactions.<\/p>\n

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\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

Global headlines this morning are zeroing in on the Fed\u2019s first rate cut since December <\/strong>\u2014 a 25 bps move designed to shore up a labor market showing clear signs of strain. The cut fell short of the deeper reductions pushed by President Donald Trump. We have the full breakdown of the Fed\u2019s move and what to expect next in Planet Finance, below. (Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a> | Financial Times<\/a> | New York Times<\/a> | Wall Street Journal<\/a>)<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE IN WINDSOR-<\/strong> Trump\u2019s second state visit to Britain entered full pageantry mode yesterday, as King Charles welcomed the US president with the country\u2019s largest ceremonial reception in living memory. A carriage procession, banquet at Windsor Castle, and royal tributes to the \u201cspecial relationship\u201d framed the day \u2014 while Trump vowed to deepen trade and diplomatic ties. Today the focus shifts to geopolitics and trade talks at Chequers. (Reuters<\/a> | Associated Press<\/a> | BBC<\/a> | The Guardian<\/a> | New York Times<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a> | Financial Times<\/a>)<\/p>\n

WORTH READING THIS MORNING- <\/strong>The number of b\u2019naires worldwide has ballooned from just 140 in 1987 to more than 3k worth a combined USD 16 tn today, with the top 0.0001% of the population seeing their wealth grow more than twice as fast as average adults over the past three decades, writes the Financial Times<\/a>. Economists like Gabriel Zucman say the rise of a hyper-elite underscores governments\u2019 difficulty in taxing vast pools of private wealth \u2014 prompting renewed debate over global wealth taxes and exit taxes as the super-rich become ever more mobile. <\/p>\n

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>Saudi Rail International<\/a><\/strong> will take place between 19-20 October at the Riyadh <\/strong>Front Exhibition and Conference Center.<\/strong> The two-day event will bring together local and global players to explore the latest trends of the railway and transport industry.<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>Sports Investment Forum<\/a><\/strong> will run between 3-5 May 2026 in Riyadh.<\/strong> The three-day event will feature panel discussions, specialized workshops, a dedicated exhibition, and an agreement-signing platform. It will also feature a full day dedicated to the theme of \u201cwomen and sports\u201d to explore female participation and community engagement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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