Good morning, and happy THURSDAY. The big story in the last issue of the week comes from the aviation sector: Saudia is buying 10 additional aircrafts from Airbus for its budget arm Flyadeal. It’s not a one-way street, though, as Airbus is also sourcing titanium and other raw materials from the Kingdom.
ALSO- Saudi Arabia and India agreed to strengthen and expand cooperation across key sectors, following PM Modi’s short visit. Cooperation ranged from oil refineries in India to a bilateral investment agreement to be finalized “at the earlier.”
King Abdullah also landed in town: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Jordan’sKing Abdullah II in Jeddah yesterday to discuss bilateral ties and key regional issues. The two leaders focused on the worsening situation in Gaza and the West Bank, and stressed the need to support efforts to end the conflict.
BUT FIRST- Would you like to have lunch with us on Monday, 5 May? If so, hit reply to this email to let us know you’re like to be considered and tell us a little bit about yourself and what you do as a professional.
Wait, lunch? Yes, lunch. We’re inviting a small group of readers to join us to talk over where the economy and business climate stand now and where they’re heading through 2030. Expect good food, good company, and frank talk about what we are convinced is the most exciting business opportunity in the world.
Seating is strictly limited and the gathering is invitation-only. The gathering will take place under Chatham House rules. We’ll be in touch over the course of the next week with the folks we’re inviting to drop them the details.

HAPPENING TODAY-
It’s day four of the IMF and World Bank’sspring meetup, and the fallout from the IMF’s downbeat World Economic Outlook is rippling through global markets.
Saudi Arabia remains focused on long-term transformation: Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah Al Jadaan, speaking at a US Chamber of Commerce roundtable, kept the spotlight on Vision 2030. “We are committed to delivering an effective regulatory framework that enhances transparency, an investor-friendly ecosystem, and alignment across ministries to foster partnerships.”
On the agenda today: IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department Director Jihad Azour will give a closed press briefing.
WEATHER- Sun will shine over Riyadh, winds will stir through Makkah, and storms may rumble across Madinah.
- Riyadh: 38°C daytime / 25°C overnight sunny
- Makkah: 43°C daytime / 27°C overnight windy
- Madinah: 42°C daytime / 26°C overnight storm
PSAs-
#1- We can now weigh in on the draft guide for controls, procedures, and requirements related to personal data protection. The draft, open for consultation until Tuesday, 20 May, aims to support the sector’s growth, encouraging participation from both entities and individuals.
The scope: The draft outlines conditions related to personal data protection for the provision of consultancy services, technical and vocational training, technical services to support legal compliance, and conference organization within the field.
ALSO- You can provide feedback on appointing procedures for food facility officers working within the Kingdom, as part of an initiative to enhance compliance with quality and safety standards in the food sector. The draft consultation concludes on Thursday, 22 May.
#2- Businesses subject to zakat and income tax must file their returns for FY 2024 by Tuesday, 30 April, the authority said in a statement. Businesses subject to value-added-tax (VAT) whose annual supplies of goods and services exceeds SAR 40 mn must file March returns by 30 April, while businesses below the threshold must submit tax returns for the whole first quarter by the same deadline. Submissions can be made via Zatca’s website.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Saudi mostly spared from tariff turmoil: Economic conditions in a number of GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, “remain in solid shape” despite the US administration’s trade policies, with S&P Global Market Research only slightly slowing down its growth outlook for the three countries across 2025 and 2026, S&P Global Market Research said in a press release.
The research unit cites falling oil prices as the main drawback spurred by the tariffs for the region’s oil producers, but mentions the UAE and Qatar as countries that it sees managing to withstand an extended period of lower oil prices.
Global growth could reach its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis — excluding the pandemic: S&P lowered its annual global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.2%, from 2.5%. The forecast for next year’s real GDP growth was also lowered to 2.4%, down from 2.7%. “In both years, projected global growth would be the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic,” S&P wrote.
DATA POINT-
King Khalid tops airports’ performance in March: King Khalid International Airport recorded an 82% compliance rate in March 2025, leading international airports handling more than 15 mn passengers per year, according to a monthly report by the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca). King Abdulaziz International Airport came in second place with a 73% compliance rate, down nearly 10% from 82% in February.
OIL WATCH-
Chinese importers are ramping up purchases of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East — turning to Gulf suppliers including Saudi to replace tariff-hit US shipments, traders told Bloomberg.
Reshuffling the pack: At least seven US-loaded supertankers originally bound for China in May and June are now being diverted to India and Southeast Asia, while Middle Eastern volumes that were earmarked for those markets are now being redirected to Chinese end-users, said the traders.
The pivot may offer short-term relief, but it’s no silver bullet: Even with the added Middle East inflows, China still faces a monthly LPG shortfall of 470k tons, writes the business information service, citing a Citic Futures report. Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants — already running at 65-70% utilization — could be forced to cut back as they burn through their feedstock inventories, according to the report. Unlike US shipments, which are predominantly propane, Middle Eastern supplies include butane — which is less ideal for Chinese plants.
ALSO- Kazakhstan will put down its own needs first when setting oil production levels, even if that means going against the Opec+ group, the country’s new Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov told Reuters. He also noted that Kazakhstan can’t cut production at its major oil projects because they are run by foreign companies. The move could deepen tensions with oil cartel members who have previously expressed frustration over Kazakhstan’s rising output.
REFRESHER- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE have submitted to Opec updated plans last week to compensate for exceeding oil production quotas within the Opec+ agreement. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reportedly cautioned earlier this month that non-compliance with production targets will lead to further increments during a video conference, calling the unexpected May rise an “aperitif.”
SPORTS-
Neom Sports Club sealed promotion to the Saudi Pro League (SPL) with four games in hand, after a 3-0 result away from home mathematically confirmed a top flight berth for next season, the club said in a post on X. This also got ink from Reuters.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
A further de-escalation in US President Donald Trump’s tariff war is taking up a lot of ink in the global business press, as are increased tensions between the US and Ukraine and India and Pakistan.
Trump is considering slashing China’s tariffs by more than half, the Wall Street Journal reported in an exclusive, and has decided to spare car parts from tariffs applied on China and on steel and aluminum, in a “de-stacking” of tariffs, the Financial Times reports.
Wall Street stocks continued to cheer the news, ending the day higher despite losing some of its earlier gains after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a de-escalation from the current “embargo” between US and China would need to be mutual. The USD also gained 0.9% against a basket of its major trading partners, but is still hovering near multi-year lows. (Financial Times | Reuters)
Trump is not in a de-escalatory mood with Ukraine, however — he took to his social media platform Truth to say that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is harming peace negotiations by saying he will not recognize Crimea as a Russian territory, saying it’s “not even a point of discussion.” (FT | Reuters)
Over in India, an attack on Kashmir that killed 26 tourists — which has been blamed on a Pakistan-linked terror group — has resulted in India downgrading its ties with Pakistan in a fresh flare-up of tensions between the countries. (Reuters | Semafor | NYT | WaPo)


