US markets hit record highs despite investor caution

US markets closed out last week on fresh record highs, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, hopes for trade deals, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Yet, behind the rally, investors remain wary of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style.

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Investors are watching for Congress to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by early July, while markets remain sensitive to upcoming economic data and the Fed’s next move. The June jobs report, due Thursday, is expected to show a slowdown in hiring to 110k from May’s 139k, according to a Reuters poll. Markets are penciling in a 76% chance of a September rate cut and a 19% probability of a July move, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.

Major US indices closed at record highs on Friday: Both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed up 0.52% to reach fresh highs. Chipmaker Micron’s positive outlook revived confidence in AI-linked chip stocks, pushing Nvidia up 1.8% and bringing it closer to a USD 4 tn market cap.

Despite the gains, institutional investors remain wary of policy risks. “Nobody wants to end a week with a risk-on tilt to their portfolios,” B. Riley Wealth’s Art Hogan told Reuters, adding that investors are “aware that just as the market feels more certain and confident, a single wildcard policy announcement could change everything.” Bank of America’s strategist Joseph Quinlan told the newswire that institutional investors are cautious this time around, pointing out that the high gains markets posted after Trump’s re-election were wiped out by his tariff policies later on. “There will still be spikes of volatility around policy unknowns,” he said. Barclays’ Stefano Pascle echoed the sentiment, citing “a lot of hesitation in chasing the market rally.”

Looking ahead: Investors will keep a close eye on the June jobs report this week, alongside congressional progress on the fiscal bill and tariff deadlines. July has historically been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising an average 2.9% in the past 15 years.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.9% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.7 bn. The index is down 8.0% YTD.

In the green: Ades (+7.0%), NGC (+5.7%) and Zamil Indust (+5.4%).

In the red: SMC Healthcare (-3.3%), Saic (-2.6%) and Talco (-2.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.8% last Thursday on turnover of SAR 23.6 mn. The index is down 14.1% YTD.

In the green: Sama Water (+9.4%), NBM (+9.0%) and Ratio (+8.1%).

In the red: Balady (-10.0%), Leen Alkhair (-9.9%) and Mayar (-5.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

SaharaInternational Petrochemical’s (Sipchem) board approved a dividend payout of SAR 362.6 mn for 1H 2025 at SAR 0.50 per share, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for 17 July.

Fakeeh Care’s general assembly approved the distribution of SAR 69 mn in dividends at SAR 0.30 per share for FY 2024, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul on Thursday. Distribution is set for 16 July.

Al TaiseerGroup Talco Industrial Company will distribute SAR 64 mn in dividends for FY 2024 at SAR 1.60 apiece, with the distribution set for Sunday, 13 July, according to a disclosure to Tadawul (pdf).

SaudiAdvanced Industries Company’s (SAIC) general assembly greenlit the distribution of a dividend payout of SAR 59 mn for FY 2024 at SAR 1 per share, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for 15 July.

Tamkeen Human Resources’ (Tamkeen) general assembly approved a dividend payout of SAR 55.1 mn for FY 2024 at SAR 2.08 per share, according to a disclosure to Tadawul (pdf). The distribution date is set for 6 July.