Good morning, wonderful people. We’re three weeks away from the new year, and we can practically hear the jingle bells. We ease into this new week with a light issue, featuring the World Bank’s latest growth forecasts for the Kingdom, a deep dive into Opec+ new capacity audit set to start next month, and more.

IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR ART- Today is day four of the Red Sea Film Festival. This year’s edition, which kicked off on Thursday and runs through next Saturday, will showcase international screenings, world premieres of Arab films, and an official competition showcasing entries from all over the globe. The festival also hosts panel discussions and talent support initiatives designed to empower emerging voices and amplify the Arab presence in global cinema.

ALSO- The Riyadh Music Week is running until Wednesday, 10 December, highlighting Saudi’s music scene through Fringe events and public space activations while focusing on emerging artists, grassroots venues, and community engagement. The program spans JAX District, Sports Boulevard, and Diplomatic Quarter, bringing together several Saudi music communities, including URX, MDLBEAST, The Fridge, Bohemia Records, Merwas, and The Warehouse. Full itinerary available on the event’s website.

WEATHER- ⚠️ Stormy days ahead: Thunderstorms are expected all over the Kingdom with varying intensities starting today until Thursday, hitting Asir, Al Baha, Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Hail, Qassim, Jazan, Al Jouf, the Northern Borders, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Dust storms and hail could stir in some areas, with flash floods expected in valleys and lowlands.

  • Riyadh: 26°C high / 26°C low,
  • Jeddah: 34°C high / 25°C low
  • Makkah: 33°C high / 23°C low
  • Dammam: 27°C high / 16°C low.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Fresh GDP data set to come out tomorrow: The GDP and National Accounts figures for 3Q 2025 are set to be released by the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) tomorrow. Flash estimates from the authority put the Kingdom’s real GDP growth at 5% y-o-y in 3Q 2025.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The foreign ownership law will be implemented next month for residential units in all Saudi cities except Makkah, Madinah, Jeddah, and Riyadh, Municipalities and Housing Minister Majid Al Hogail told Al Arabiya on the sidelines of the annual budget forum. Non-Saudi residents will be allowed to own residential units.

  • For commercial, industrial, and agricultural real estate, foreign ownership will be permitted in all cities without exception, Al Hogail said.

REMEMBER- In July, the Cabinet approved legislation enabling non-Saudis to own residential and commercial real estate in designated areas starting January 2026. Aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, the law permits ownership without a residency permit but imposes specific geographic restrictions, including special regulations for Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, and Madinah. Ownership in the holy cities will be limited to Muslims within major projects, while raw land purchases remain prohibited to prevent market speculation.

The 2026 budget allocates SAR 70 bn to deliver 80k new housing units, Al Hogail said. The government has already securitized SAR 47 bn to provide liquidity for housing programs, which have benefited 1.2 mn families so far, including 920k who have moved into their new homes. Saudi homeownership is expected to reach 66% by year-end, exceeding 2025 targets, according to Al Hogail.

#2- US-based investment management giant State Street is expanding its Riyadh presence, adding 12 staff members to its 30-person office over the next two years to tap into the Kingdom’s accelerating ETFs and alternative assets market, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing State Street’s Oliver Berger and Emmanuel Laurina.

The rationale: ETFs have seen sharp adoption in the past 18 months, especially through 2025, with Saudi family offices and private wealth managers shifting toward international markets, multi-asset structures, and alternatives. Sovereign clients are also redirecting part of their portfolios toward MENA fixed income and equities, they said.

ICYMI- State Street opened its MENA regional headquarters in Riyadh in October. The company — which began local operations in 2020 and has served Saudi clients for over 25 years — has USD 60 bn in assets under management in the Kingdom as of October. It plans to introduce new Saudi-focused ETFs while preparing to launch custodian services in the Kingdom by 2027.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi Arabia cuts January crude prices to five-year low amid global surplus: Aramco lowered the price of its main Arab Light crude for Asia to USD 1.50 per barrel, a USD 0.6 premium over the Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to reports by Bloomberg and Argaam. This marks the lowest level since January 2021 and comes in line with expectations.

Arab Heavy and Arab Medium fell by USD 0.60 a barrel versus the Oman-Dubai average, while Arab Extra Light and Arab Super Light were reduced by USD 0.20 a barrel, Mees reports.

IN CONTEXT- The move comes amid persistent signs of a global oil surplus, with crude prices down about 16% this year due to strong supply from the Americas and Opec+ output.

SPEAKING OF- Opec’s crude output held largely steady in November at just over 29 mn bbl / d, reflecting a cautious stance amid growing signs of a global oil surplus, a Bloomberg survey showed. A 60k bbl / d uptick from the UAE was offset by minor declines in Iran, Gabon, and Saudi Arabia.

ICYMI-Opec+ agreed to freeze production increases in 1Q 2026 to manage seasonal demand softness and gauge geopolitical risks to Russian and Venezuelan supplies. The decision keeps 3.24 mn bbl / d of production cuts in place, representing some 3% of global demand.

IN CONTEXT- The alliance has previously boosted output to reclaim market share from US shale and curb quota overproduction, though actual increases often lagged due to technical limits or compensation for earlier overshoots. Opec+ has now agreed on a new capacity review mechanism to set more accurate future quotas.

^^ New mechanism, you say? We dive into Opec+’s quota-setting methodology in today’s news well, below.

SPORTS-

The Green Falcons will face Spain, Cape Verde, and Uruguay in Group H at next year’s Fifa World Cup finals held in the US, Canada, and Mexico, where they will compete for a place in the knockout stage, state news agency SPA reported on Friday. The three North American countries will gather 48 national teams battling for the cup, including seven Arab countries.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s relatively calm in the foreign press this morning — among the stories making headlines:

#1- Netflix will acquire Warner Bros Discovery in a USD 72 bn agreement, which would give it control of Warner’s portfolio, including HBO and major franchises like Harry Potter and Batman. Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav is expected to remain in charge of the studio under Netflix’s ownership. Regulators are expected to scrutinize the merger over antitrust issues, but if approved, it would expand Netflix’s influence across film, television, and streaming. (Financial Times | New York Times | CNN | Reuters | BBC | Bloomberg)

#2- Australia kicks off the world’s first social media ban: Australia is rolling out the world’s first social media ban for anyone under 16 years of age, with Meta already deactivating hundreds of thousands of teen accounts on Instagram, Facebook, and Threads ahead of the 10 December deadline. The ban will make it illegal for anyone under 16 years old to hold accounts on major platforms, including TikTok, YouTube, Snapchat, Reddit, and X, with companies facing fines of up to AUD 49.5 mn (c. USD 33 mn) if they fail to comply. (BBC | Reuters | Guardian | Washington Post)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Northern Borders Investment Forum 2025 will launch on 15 December at the Ministry of Interior Staff Club in Arar. The forum will bring together ministers, officials, and business leaders to highlight the region’s economic potential, present over 240 investment prospects valued at SAR 40 bn across livestock, mining, energy, tourism, environment, and logistics, and strengthen public-private partnerships.

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