Gigaprojects’ outlook in the years ahead: Fiscal pressure and mounting uncertainty over mega-schemes like Neom’s The Line led to a significant slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s gigaproject spending, reaching a five-year low in 2025, Meed’s head of content and research Ed James said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM.

By the numbers: Gigaproject contract awards declined sharply this year, with only USD 8.5 bn awarded so far — well below last year’s total of USD 29.3 bn and 2023’s peak of USD 34.6 bn. Most recent awards were concentrated in construction and transport infrastructure, including roads, utilities, and buildings. Total awards since the gigaprojects program started currently stand at some USD 116 bn.

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WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

The crunch in awards comes as the Public Investment Fund is taking stock of its priorities, facing tighter finances primarily due to lower oil prices. Development efforts are now concentrated on the Riyadh region and key event-tied infrastructure for the upcoming Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

A big shift: Gigaprojects have accounted for roughly 20% of Saudi project awards over the past 5-7 years, as per Meed’s tally. The five flagship developments — Neom, Red Sea Global, Qiddiya, Roshn, and Diriyah — represented 77% of spending on gigaprojects, followed by other PIF subsidiaries (9%) and non-PIF megaprojects (14%).

Market sentiment: A live poll of some 400 attendees revealed 58% are not confident gigaproject spending will return to 2023 levels. Still, half the respondents are maintaining their focus on gigaprojects, while 33% said they have increased their level of engagement.

ICYMI- A few mega-developments were launched in 2025: PIF subsidiary Rua Al Haram Al Makki launched the King Salman Gate project in Makkah earlier this year, a 12 mn sqm mixed-use development next to the Holy Mosque that will host up to 900k worshippers. A USD 2 bn National Athletics Stadium is planned at Qiddiya, targeted for completion by 2030. Early works have also begun on the Riyadh Expo 2030 site, which needs to be operational by October 2030.

All eyes on Riyadh: Most awards this year have clustered in and around Riyadh, specifically the Diriyah, Qiddiya, and Roshn gigaprojects. This makes sense as Qiddiya is in relatively mature stage and will start its first operational phase soon, while Diriyah is the centerpiece of Riyadh’s preparation for Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup. Major investments are also flowing into supporting infrastructure projects like King Salman Park, Sports Boulevard, and King Salman International Airport.

MEANWHILE- Neom doubts continue to bubble: The Line and Magna projects along the Gulf of Aqaba coast are unlikely to progress soon, as the USD 500 bn Neom project undergoes a comprehensive review due to cost challenges and limited commercial feasibility, according to Meed. The consensus is that The Line, with an estimated USD 50 bn cost per module, is currently commercially unfeasible, leading to a near-complete pause in work.

  • Most people agree, it seems: Some 80% of attendees think The Line is unlikely to proceed in its current form.

BUT- Neom’s industrial city Oxagon and luxury island Sindalah are still expected to press ahead, with the latter undergoing some reworking and its development likely to be transferred under tourism veterans at Red Sea Global.

A longer time horizon: The gigaproject timeline is moving beyond 2030, extending into the 2030-2040 horizon and beyond as Vision 2040 emerges, James said. (Neom is already being positioned as a “100-year project.”) Projects that have yet to launch or are still in early development are expected to face funding challenges, prompting a stronger emphasis on securing alternative financing and investments to progress.

Projects are shifting to real estate financing, private sector: Gigaproject entities, including Roshn, have been increasingly relying on real estate-driven funding models, including off-plan sales, to reduce dependence on government spending. Public-private partnerships are also gaining momentum, particularly in labor accommodation, wastewater treatment, power, and mobility.

A HEFTY PIPELINE-

Saudi Arabia holds the GCC’s largest future project pipeline at USD 1.65 tn — nearly equal to the rest of the region combined. Construction accounts for most of the pipeline (USD 629 bn), followed by transport, power, and water. Much of the future spending is listed as mixed-use due to limited visibility on contract packages, James said.

More than USD 50 bn in gigaproject packages are currently out to tender or under evaluation, though award delays persist pending budget approvals. A further USD 47 bn is in the prequalification phashe, and nearly USD 90 bn in design. Active tenders include Q-Express rail, King Salman Airport’s iconic terminal, Neom-related renewables, QIC infrastructure, and New Murabba.

Are there more gigaprojects under wraps? An examination of PIF financials shows several wholly-owned subsidiaries with unannounced gigaprojects, suggesting a larger future pipeline, Meed says. Key developments include Central Riyadh (a 15 sq km regeneration project), Project Lime (Dubai Gate Zone), Project W (AlUla), Project Ghazal, Project Rise (North Riyadh), Project Dunes (Shaybah), and Project Paradise (southwest Riyadh).

  • Many of these projects are in design or early tendering, with several expected to launch in the next 12-24 months, indicating the current pipeline could be further expanded, James said.

So.. what’s next? A sharp uptick in spending is unlikely in the near term, as the PIF is finalizing its updated five-year strategy expected to be unveiled early next year. The fund is signaling a pivot toward AI and emerging sectors, while still prioritizing Expo- and World Cup-related infrastructure, King Salman Park, Sports Boulevard, and King Salman International Airport. Transport also remains a big focus, including roads, bridges, metro extensions, the Riyadh Link, the Saudi Land Bridge, and the planned expansion of Maaden’s minerals railway.

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