Oil markets unshaken by Maduro overthrow

Global oil markets yawned at the US’ attack on Venezuela, with prices remaining more or less stable as markets had already priced in “a conflict with Venezuela that would impact exports,” CNBC says. While a military intervention like the US’ would traditionally trigger a spike in crude prices, Brent fell as much as 1.2% in intraday trading before paring back losses and is now up less than 1%, according to Bloomberg.

Venezuela may have vast oil reserves, but its actual production has been falling over the past several years, and the majority of the country’s output is exported to China. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is already forecasting a 3.8 mn bbl / d surplus for 2026. With Venezuela currently producing just 500k bbl / d (1% of global output), there isn’t enough “live” production to lose to cause a price shock.

A USD 100 bn (very) long play: A US-led, USD 100 bn plan to revive Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is expected to eventually ramp up the country’s oil production again, but analysts are wary that this will be a “years-long” process, Bloomberg says. The plan hinges on US oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips to invest some USD 10 bn per year — a roadmap that the White House seemingly has not yet discussed with these private sector players, and one which would hinge on the companies seeing more stability in Venezuela before pouring in more money. It also remains unclear whether markets will actually want the additional oil output that would result from bringing Venezuela’s production back up to historical levels, analysts tell CNBC.

Meanwhile, traders are flocking to haven assets: Gold and silver prices surged as haven demand following the news of the US’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Gold prices rose sharply — rising above the USD 4,400 mark for the first time in history — as investors scrambled for geopolitical hedges, a move mirrored across silver markets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Markets are starting off the new year in the green, with defense stocks pushing up Asia-Pacific markets in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, and mainland China’s CSI 300 are all firmly trading up. Wall Street is likely to follow suit when trading begins later today — futures indicate the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are set to open in the green, while Dow Jones futures are trading flat.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.6 bn. The index is down 1.2% YTD.

In the green: Sieco (+9.9%), Naqi (+2.5%) and Burgerizzr (+2.2%).

In the red: Gulf Union Alahlia (-4.6%), UCIC (-4.5%) and Ardco (-4.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.6% yesterday on turnover of SAR 20.8 mn. The index is up 0.3% YTD.

In the green: United Mining (+10.0%), Paper Home (+6.9%) and Dar Almarkabah (+6.7%).

In the red: Mayar (-8.3%), Lamasat (-8.1%) and Neft Alsharq (-8.0%).

Corporate actions

Burgerizzr’s board greenlit a 60% capital increase to SAR 56 mn, whereby three bonus shares will be issued for every five existing ones, the firm said in a Tadawul disclosure yesterday. The SAR 21 mn boost will be funded via retained earnings, bringing the company’s total share count to 56 mn.

Academy of Learning’s shareholders approved a 50% capital hike to SAR 135 via a bonus share issuance, the firm said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The SAR 45 mn increase will be executed by tapping retained earnings, with shareholders receiving one bonus share for every two held.

ALSO- The company approved a SAR 9 mn dividend payout for the fiscal year ending 30 June 2025 at SAR 0.1 per share. The distribution date is set for Thursday, 22 January.