Good morning, everyone, and happy THURSDAY. Business is still calm in the Kingdom, as companies and investors are gearing up for a packed next week that will the Future Investment Initiative forum hosted in Riyadh, as well as a Federal Reserve meeting that’s widely expected to deliver another rate cut.

Leading this morning’s news well: BMI sees our GDP growth accelerating to 4.1% in 2026, construction costs held steady in September according to Gastat’s data, and the earnings season is picking up more steam with Arab National Bank, Mobily, Sipchem and more out with their 3Q results. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Dust in the air: Blustery winds are set to whip up dust and sand across the eastern parts of Makkah and Madinah today, keeping skies hazy. Fog may roll into parts of the Eastern Region and along Makkah’s southern coast by nightfall.

  • Riyadh: 33°C high / 20°C low,
  • Jeddah: 37°C high / 26°C low
  • Makkah: 39°C high / 28°C low
  • Dammam: 35°C high / 21°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- PIF-owned Red Sea Global is set to launch its first luxury project in Italy soon, marking its first international expansion, CEO John Pagano told Reuters on the sidelines of the Reuters Next Gulf Summit in Abu Dhabi. Pagano — who was granted Saudi citizenship earlier this month — is also joining the board of Neom.

ICYMI- Red Sea Global will reportedly take over the Sindalah tourist island from the Neom project. The move frees Neom, which is reportedly undergoing a “comprehensive review,” reassessing budgets and progress of various developments facing headwinds.

ALSO- The Royal Commission for AlUla plans to roll out around SAR 6 bn worth of projects for private sector participation, Chief Tourism Officer Phillip Jones told Reuters in the summit. About 21 projects will be launched by early next year as part of efforts to attract private investment to the UNESCO World Heritage site, which drew 300k visitors last year and is targeted for 1 mn by 2030, he added.

An IPO could come by the end of the decade, although the talks are still in very early stages, Jones said. AlUla was not affected by recalibration programs and has secured funding for the next five years as it moves into the second phase of its development plan, he added.

#2- State-backed investor Saudi Venture Capital (SVC) plans to dedicate half of its investments to private credit and equity, compared to about a third in 2024, CEO Nabeel Koshak tells Bloomberg. SVC, which Bloomberg notes “primarily acts as a fund of funds,” will allocate the remaining balance of its investments to back venture funding.

The company invested about USD 300 mn per year over the past two years and plans to maintain its pace in 2026, Koshak said. It has a mandate to invest USD 3 bn by 2030 to develop the financing ecosystem for startups and SMEs in the Kingdom.

The strategy shift comes as the operating conditions also evolve: Saudi companies, particularly SMEs, are increasingly exploring new financing options as tightening liquidity conditions make it more difficult to access traditional capital through banks, making room for private credit. “Private credit specifically is at the nascent stage, so we also plan to do more to raise awareness on how it actually complements filling the gap on SME financing,” Koshak said.

BACKGROUND- SVC has been ramping up its private credit and equity investments over the past months. The company has backed Janus Henderson’s USD 125.5 mn MENA Private Credit Fund IV, invested in Artal Capital’s private equity fund, and poured an undisclosed sum into Jadwa Investment’s Jadwa GCC Private Equity Fund 1. It has also previously made a SAR 112.5 mn investment in a fund managed by US-based private equity giant General Atlantic.

#3- The Kingdom eyes Australian expertise and investments in mining during the Saudi-ANZUK Forum in Riyadh, along with strengthening trade and investment relations with New Zealand and the UK, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. The four countries also plan to diversify their trade channels amid the ongoing tariff friction during the two-day forum that wraps up today.

Mutual benefits: “Australia has what we need in terms of know-how and capacity building,” Bloomberg quotes Vice Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Khalid Al Mudaifer as saying in an interview in Sydney. Meanwhile, Australia seeks to expand its export markets away from the Chinese market — its primary export market.

A budding relation: Saudi Arabia and Australia’s bilateral trade rose to USD 1.4 bn in 2024, compared to USD 1.2 bn in 2019. The Public Investment Fund has also partnered with Sydney’s Macquarie Asset Management to ramp up investments in infrastructure, energy storage, and EVs. Meanwhile, Australia’s Hancock Prospecting and Ma’aden are digging together for metals in Makkah’s Nabitah Al Duwaihi belt.

#4- Syria is planning to launch an international investment roadshow in the next few months to attract capital from the Gulf, Europe, and the US as it seeks to rebuild its war-battered economy, Economy Minister Mohammad Nidal Al Shaar said on the sidelines of the Future Resilience Forum in London, Bloomberg reports. The roadshow would come following the easing of US sanctions, which came into effect earlier this year, and ahead of parliamentary formation, which would pave the way for new investor-friendly legislation, he said.

Oil and gas is in focus, with Al Shaar floating the idea of working with GCC investors as Syria looks to rebuild its production lines to fuel industry and manufacturing. Currently, militant action in production fields in the northeast is hampering revival efforts.

REMEMBER- Saudi investors have been among the first to explore a return to Syria, inking SAR 24 bn in agreements during a Damascus-hosted investment forum earlier this year, though Al Shaar noted that the country needs significantly more capital to fund its reconstruction.

#5- Saudi Arabia is poised to benefit from unstable geopolitical trends in trade — namely protectionism and tariffs, DHL Group CEO Tobis Meyer told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 05:45). The firm has high hopes for the region — earmarking over EUR 500 mn for it over the next five years, with a focus on Saudi and the UAE, with a focus on expanding warehousing and distribution capacity.

The ball’s already rolling: DHL eCommerce finalized its acquisition of a minority stake in Saudi Arabia-based AJEX Logistics Services in August. A joint venture between Saudi Aramco and freight giant DHL was reportedly shopping for investors to back a USD 267 mn distribution center project in the Kingdom earlier this year.

DATA POINTS-

Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom went down 9.0% w-o-w in the week ending 18 October, reaching SAR 12.2 bn, according to Saudi Central Bank’s latest weekly report (pdf). The number of transactions also declined 6.1% w-o-w to 222.7 mn during the week.

The details: Food and beverage accounted for the largest share of spending, declining 6.8% w-o-w to just above SAR 1.9 bn, followed by restaurants and cafes, which slipped 9.3% w-o-w to just above SAR 1.5 bn. Education spending witnessed a dip of 31.2% w-o-w to SAR 105.1 mn. Aviation was the sole activity that inched up during the week, rising 2.0% w-o-w to SAR 48.9 mn

Riyadh recorded the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.4 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.7 bn.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports increased by some 413k bbl / d to 6.4 mn bbl / d in August, according to Jodi data. Exports of refined petroleum products dropped by 163k bbl / d to 1.59 mn bbl / d. Crude inventories dropped by 1.5 mn barrels, reaching 143.8 mn barrels.

Crude production also rose by 521k bbl / d to reach 9.722 mn bbl / d, while local demand dropped by some 222k bbl / d, reaching 2.78 mn bbl / d. Meanwhile, direct crude burn also edged down to 607k bbl / d.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US has sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Roseneft and Lukoil, in a bid to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. The move comes a day after a planned summit between the US and Russia to discuss a potential ceasefire was shelved, and is the first time US President Donald Trump imposes Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia since his second term began. (Reuters | Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Guardian)

The EU also approved a package of sanctions that includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports from 2027, a year earlier than planned. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

Market reax: Oil jumped USD 2 on the news, with Brent Crude futures rising to USD 64.

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION- Tesla’s net income in 3Q 2025 fell short of analysts’ expectations, despite a boost in sales that drove revenues higher, as CEO Elon Musk cited tariffs and elevated research costs as challenges. Its shares fell 4% on the news. (Reuters | Guardian | WSJ)

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