Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI expects Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth to reach 4.1% in 2026, accelerating 0.3 percentage points increase from the 3.8% growth BMI expects to see in 2025. The higher 2026 growth rate will come on the back of accelerated oil production, with production rates expected to rise 5.2% in 2026, compared to 4.5% in 2025, MENA Country Risk Senior Analyst Mariette Kas-Hanna said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM.

The non-oil sector is seen growing at a 3.7% clip next year, with the fiscal deficit expected to narrow from the 4.6% it’s seen recording in 2025, BMI said. This deficit will come as the positive effect of higher oil output will be somewhat dampened by lower oil prices.

This projection comes in line with recent Finance Ministry estimates, which see the deficit narrowing to 3.3% of GDP in 2026 from the 5.3% estimate for 2025. As a result of “the sustained deficits,” BMI sees the debt-to-GDP ratio rising in 2026 to 30.5%, compared to 29.2% in 2025.

BMI also expects inflation in the Kingdom to cool to an annual average of 2.0% in 2025, with a deceleration in 4Q expected on the back of government measures to stabilize the household market with the introduction of a five-year rent freeze in Riyadh.

REGIONALLY- GCC growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% next year, up from 3.9% projected in 2025, with the uptick driven mainly by the accelerated phasing out of Opec+ production cuts, and robust performance of the region’s non-oil sectors due to the strong spending on projects as the states sustain their diversification efforts. Inflation in the GCC could also pick up to 1.8% in 2026 as a result of global food price increases, but “will remain benign and slightly lower than historical average.”

MENA region growth is also expected to accelerate for the second consecutive year to hit 3.6% in 2026, up from 3% in 2025, supported by stronger growth forecasts across most countries in the region, BMI Analysts said in the webinar. The growth in North Africa is projected to be 4.1% in 2026, up from 4% in 2025, driven by the faster growth in Egypt, Ramona said.

The upgrade is underpinned by:

  • Higher oil production from Opec+ coupled with a marginal decline in oil prices from 2025 levels;
  • Contained inflation;
  • Lower borrowing costs in key markets, especially the GCC and Jordan due to the USD peg, along with further monetary easing in Egypt and Morocco;
  • De-escalating geopolitical risks in the region and milder global tariff-related uncertainty.
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