Good morning. Energy — the sustainable and the not-so-sustainable kinds — are taking the lead in today’s news well. Chinese firms landed contracts totaling over USD 4 bn for a number of solar and wind projects in the Kingdom, while Midad Energy’s North Africa arm is deploying over USD 5 bn in partnership with Algeria’s Sonatrach to produce hydrocarbons in the Illizi Basin.

ALSO- Saudi’s project awards declined in the third quarter, driving a regional decline, and Jarir marketing is leading the early trickle of 3Q earnings that’s about to rain down on us next week as the season picks up steam. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan is leading a Saudi delegation as the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund in Washington enter their second day, state news agency SPA reported yesterday. The meetings, which commenced yesterday and will continue until next Saturday, discuss global economic developments, growth prospects, risks, and how to address them.

WEATHER- Stormy spells ahead: Light to moderate thunderstorms, hail, and gusty winds are expected today across Makkah and Al Baha, turning heavy in parts of Asir and Jazan. Fog may blanket these areas along with parts of the Eastern, Northern Borders, Al Jouf, Hail, Tabuk, and coastal Madinah regions. Dust-laden winds will continue sweeping through Qassim and Riyadh, extending toward the northern reaches of the Eastern Region.

  • Riyadh: 35°C high / 20°C low,
  • Jeddah: 35°C high / 27°C low
  • Makkah: 38°C high / 29°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

A push for bigger retail share in IPOs? The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is reportedly encouraging companies planning IPOs to allocate a larger portion of shares to retail investors — around 30% of the total on offer — up from the usual 10%, in a bid to boost liquidity on Tadawul, Semafor reported yesterday, citing people it said are familiar with the matter. The requests have been made informally and aren’t a regulatory requirement.

Allocation tensions: Retail investors, who accounted for over 20% of trading activity in September, voiced frustration at missing out on IPO gains as their allocations have shrunk over the years. However, a larger retail tranche could displease foreign institutional investors, who already face limited allocations and are crucial for price discovery and long-term stability. The CMA’s challenge lies in balancing local investor access with efforts to attract more global capital to the Saudi market.

The move follows other steps by the regulator to revive trading activity, including plans to scrap the requirement for foreign investors to register as Qualified Foreign Investors before buying shares and a decision nearing completion to lift the 49% cap on foreign ownership.

Qatar-Saudi railway link gets the green light: Qatar’s Cabinet approved a draft agreement to set up a railway linking Qatar to the Kingdom through a modern train network spread across several regions in both countries, Qatari state news agency QNA reports. The high-speed railway line, expected to span some 550 km, is part of the GCC railway network — a broader USD 200 bn project slated for completion by December 2030.

Not the only link in the pipeline: Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders opened four bids for a 12-month design contract for a Kuwait-Saudi railway project in November. The 111 km railway will connect Kuwait City to the Saudi border and is part of the larger USD 200 bn GCC railway initiative.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Saudi box office raked in SAR 448 mn in revenues during 1H 2025, up 6.2% y-o-y, with 9.1 mn tickets sold, Asharq Business reported yesterday, citing data from the Film Commission. The growth reflects continued expansion of the local cinema market, which now spans over 65 venues across 20 cities with 635 screens and an average ticket price of SAR 49.

Three Saudi titles ranked among the top-grossing films of the period, including Shabab Al Bomb 2 with SAR 27.2 mn (3rd place), Hobal with SAR 24.5 mn (4th place), and Esaaf with SAR 18.5 mn (8th place).

#2- Al Nassr led Saudi clubs in player spending in 2025 with a net outlay of EUR 126 mn, followed by Neom at EUR 116 mn, Asharq Business reports, citing CIES Football Observatory data for the period beginning October 2024. Al Ahly and Al Hilal each recorded EUR 97 mn in net spending, followed by Al Qadisiyah with EUR 95 mn, and Al Ittihad with EUR 91 mn.

OIL WATCH-

Opec kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mn bbl / d for 2025 and 1.4 mn bbl / d for 2026, according to its monthly oil report (pdf). Global supply is expected to match demand next year as the group continues to boost production.

Demand for Opec+ crude remains steady at 42.5 mn bbl / d this year, rising slightly to 43.1 mn bbl / d next year. The group increased output by 630k bb l /d in September, bringing total production to an average of 43.05 mn bbl / d, the report adds, citing secondary sources. Opec+ agreed to add a total of 137k bbl / d to production in October and November.

ALSO- Echoing Opec: Saudi Aramco maintained a similar growth forecast of around 1.2-1.4 mn bbl / d for both 2025 and 2026, Reuters reports, quoting CEO Amin Nasser as saying at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.

Aramco can maintain its maximum production capacity of 12 mn bbl / d — one of the lowest extraction costs globally at about USD 2 per barrel — at the same costs, Nasser added.

SOUND SMART- The Kingdom’s very low production costs — previously estimated between USD 3-5 per barrel — give it a structural edge over higher-cost producers such as US shale firms, which typically need prices around USD 65 per barrel to stay profitable. Expanding output — as seen with Opec — allows the Kingdom to claw back market share by sustaining lower prices for longer periods, a tactic used from past oil price wars by driving prices down to a level where only the lowest-cost producer can thrive.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story is dominating the front pages of the foreign press, and that’s US President Donald Trump’s victory lap in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt yesterday, following the release of the remaining Israeli captives by Hamas, Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners, and what he declared the end of the war. Trump and 20 other world leaders — including the UAE and Saudi Arabia — gathered for a peace summit in Egypt yesterday to celebrate what is being heralded as a “new dawn” for the Middle East.

Key issues remain unresolved, including Hamas’ refusal to disarm, Israel’s partial troop withdrawal, and the question of who will govern Gaza once the fighting fully stops, the Associated Press reports. The US-led plan envisions an international body overseeing Palestinian technocrats and an Arab-led security force, but both Hamas and Israel have pushed back on elements of that framework. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

Next up: Ukraine? Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Friday as he sets his eyes on resolving the conflict with Russia. (WSJ | Axios)

Among the biggest business headlines, OpenAI’s latest chip agreement with Broadcom is getting the most attention. The two firms agreed to develop and deploy 10 GW of chips and computing systems, marking the latest in a series of chip agreements inked by OpenAI with the likes of Nvidia and AMD worth bns of USD. (WSJ | FT | CNBC)

PLUS- American-Israeli Joel Mokyr, French economist Philippe Aghion and Canadian economist Peter Howitt were awarded the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their work exploring the impact of innovation on economic growth, and the concept of “creative destruction.” (WSJ | CNN)

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