Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a rather busy Wednesday — and the start of a new month. We enter 4Q 2025 with a healthy serving of updates on the economy, including the latest unemployment figures and the Finance Ministry’s growth and deficit outlook for 2026.

Also in this morning’s newswell: The Capital Market Authority signed off on Almasar Education’s upcoming Tadawul IPO, along with a handful of other planned transactions and listings, and Sahat Almajd is also moving towards debuting on Nomu after pricing its IPO.

WEATHER- Rainy skies persist, with showers expected over Asir till weekend, with moderate to light rain over Jazan, Makkah, and Al Baha. Riyadh is expected to see temperatures as high as 40°C and as low as 25°C, while Jeddah’s mercury will go up to 37°C before cooling down to 28°C, and Makkah will witness a 42°C high and a 30°C low.

PSA-

Over 17k investors affected by Dar Al Arkan Real Estate’s stock trading violations are now being compensated, the Capital Market Authority said in a statement on Tadawul. The payments follow a final ruling announced in mid-2023 obligating 17 violators and five investors to pay SAR 1.2 bn for the illegal gains made from these violations. The payments will be disbursed through a dedicated fund.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Acwa Power is aiming to begin work on its green hydrogen project in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) by mid-2026, Hapi Journal quotes Executive Business Development Director Ayman Fayek as saying. The company is still studying the project, Fayek said.

Powering the facility: Acwa has a 3.4 GW project — 1.9 GW of wind and 1.5 GW of solar — that will be connected to the national electricity grid and used for green hydrogen production, he added.

Background: It was lastly reported that Acwa expects to complete the first, USD 4 bn portion of its green hydrogen project in the SCZone by 4Q 2028. Under the framework agreement inked in 2023, the company will invest at least USD 4 bn in the first phase of the project, which will have a production capacity of 600k metric tons of green ammonia annually. The second phase of the project will add another 2 mn metric tons of green ammonia to the plant’s production capacity.

#2- Dar Global is setting up its global headquarters in Riyadh, CEO Ziad Al Shaar told Al Arabiya. He described Saudi Arabia as the most important global real estate market for the next decade.

AND- Trump Plaza gets a timeline: The USD 1 bn Trump Plaza Jeddah — which Dar Global is building — is set to launch off-plan sales in early 2026, with construction starting mid-2026 and completion expected within three years, Al Shaar said. The 28k sqm mixed-use luxury development will include apartments, townhouses, offices, a retail courtyard, and serviced units. The plaza is the centerpiece of the larger 1 mn sqm “Manhattan masterplan” being developed by Dar Al Arkan in central Jeddah.

#3- Saudi to boost trade ties with Oman: Saudi Arabia inked a certificate of origin (CO) with Oman to streamline the mutual flow of goods and hike up commercial and industrial exports between the two Kingdoms, ONA reports.

SOUND SMART- A CO confirms the origin of a product — serving as a declaration to adhere to customs or trade requirements, according to the International Chamber of Commerce. They are required for customs clearance services to clarify duties or legitimacy of imports.

Background: The contract was initiated under the second phase of the pair’s plan to support the bilateral integration and trade of industrial goods, launched back in June. This includes creating a fast track for customs transactions, joint industrial investments, integrating industrial supply chains, easing procedures for registering industrial goods, and equal treatment of companies in their respective government tenders.

OIL WATCH-

Oil equities may be set for a rebound: Energy stocks have been among the year’s worst performers, weighed down by falling crude prices — with Brent down more than 9% YTD and WTI down over 8% — and record-low net long positions in WTI futures, Jay Pelosky, the Founder and Global Strategist at TPW Advisory wrote in Reuters. Yet, the sector led gains last week, hinting that the deeply bearish case could be softening, even as prices started to slip again.

The bearish narrative rests on oversupply forecasts: The IEA sees demand growth in 2026 at just 700k bbl / d, the lowest since 2009 outside the pandemic years. The US Energy Department expects Brent to average USD 51 / bbl in 2026 — down from roughly USD 70 at present — with inventories building by more than 1.7 mn bbl / d next year. That outlook is tied to the view that Opec+ will ramp up production after unwinding cuts, though analysts argue the group is already falling behind on quota.

Two wildcards could flip the script: Ukraine’s drone strikes have sidelined about a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity, prompting Moscow to partially ban diesel exports — sending Brent up more than 1% after the announcement. Meanwhile, China has been importing nearly 1 mn bbl / d above its domestic needs on average this year. With significant storage capacity still unused, continued stockpiling could underpin demand in the months ahead.

The traditional commodity cycle is turning, as precious metals have already surged, with the Gold Miners ETF doubling YTD. Industrial metals have followed, with the Copper Miners ETF up nearly 30% over the past three months, leaving energy as the next likely leg. A weaker USD — the greenback is down almost 10% this year — could add momentum, as crude is priced in USD.

Risks remain: A prolonged trade war under Trump could weigh on global demand. Still, a looser US monetary policy, Beijing’s anti-deflation push, and surging AI-driven capex point to stronger growth. With positioning in oil so bearish, any upside surprise — whether from geopolitics, Opec+ shortfalls, or China’s buying spree — could deliver sharp gains in oil-linked equities.

SPORTS-

Saudi Arabia enters global cricket stage: Saudi Arabia is set to host major cricket for the first time through a strategic partnership between the Saudi Arabia Cricket Federation (SACF) and the UAE-based DP World International League T20 (ILT20), according to a press release. The agreement licenses ILT20 as an official league in the Kingdom, with future seasons expected to stage matches here at home.

A pathway for Saudi players: As part of the agreement, Saudi players will gain a direct pathway into the six-team franchise competition, with each franchise required to sign at least one Saudi cricketer. Development tournaments will also be staged in the Kingdom starting next year to nurture local talent.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story is on every front page this morning: The US government is on the verge of shutting down after lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on funding talks. US President Donald Trump told reporters the shutdown is “likely,” warning Democrats that his administration could take “irreversible” action — including mass firings of federal workers and the elimination of “programs they like” — if Congress fails to keep the government open. “We can get rid of a lot of things that we didn’t want and they’d be Democrat things.”

This would be the US’ first shutdown since 2019, when a shutdown lasted around five weeks during Trump’s first term. This time around, the stakes are slightly higher: The US Federal Reserve is set to meet at the end of October to discuss and make a decision on interest rates, and with a delay in government data expected — as well as potentially worse jobless data in light of Trump’s warnings — the Fed’s judgment could be further clouded ahead of the crucial decision. (Reuters | Bloomberg | BBC | The Guardian | Financial Times)

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly closing in on a USD 10 bn agreement to buy Occidental Petroleum’s petrochemicals arm OxyChem — a move the Financial Times says would be the conglomerate’s largest acquisition in three years. Occidental is offloading the unit as part of efforts to trim its USD 24 bn debt load. Berkshire, already Occidental’s biggest shareholder with nearly 27% of its stock, is said to be negotiating a cash purchase.

AND- Trump has given Hamas three to four days to respond to his proposed peace plan for Gaza, warning of a “very sad end” if it does not accept the proposal. The 20-point plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and Hamas’ disarmament, Israel’s staged withdrawal, and a transitional foreign-led government in Gaza, has received widespread global support, including from the Palestinian Authority. Hamas was not involved in the negotiations that led to the proposal. (Reuters | Guardian)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The BibanForum will be held between 5-8 November at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center. The Monsha’at-organized, four-day event is expected to attract over 140k visitors from 150 countries, featuring panel discussions, interactive workshops, and an exhibition of breakthrough innovations targeting startups and SMEs.

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