Good morning. The Kingdom’s borrowing extravaganza is leading this morning’s busy news well, with updates on USD-denominated issuances from Aramco, Alrajhi Bank and Bank AlJazira. Real estate IPOs are also taking center stage, as Almajdiah stumbled on its first day of trading, while Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan’s Nomu offering was over 110% covered.

ALSO- Saudi’s growth story was in focus at EFG Hermes London conference this week, and our weekly My Morning Routine section features work and life insights from Ahmed Al Mashhadi, founder and CEO of Veem Solutions.

BUT FIRST- Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman delivered the annual royal address to the Shura Council, outlining the Kingdom’s economic achievements and affirming positions on key regional issues.

Non-oil activities now constitute 56% of the gross domestic product (GDP), which contributed to 660 international companies choosing Saudi Arabia for their regional headquarters, a figure that exceeds the target set for 2030, the Crown Prince said. Robust infrastructure and advanced technological services helped attract companies to the Kingdom, while recent agreements in AI are also set to establish Saudi Arabia as a global center for AI in the coming years, he added.

Localization of defense industries also saw significant progress, increasing to over 19%. Efforts continue to elevate defense capabilities to the highest international standards in collaboration with strategic partners, the Crown Prince added.

Regarding the real estate market, Bin Salman acknowledged that residential property prices in some areas have risen to “unacceptable levels.” The government is working on policies to rebalance the sector, aiming to lower costs, encourage investment, and provide suitable housing options for citizens, he said.

The government will adopt flexibility in pursuing its goals. “We will not hesitate to cancel or make any radical amendment to any programs or targets if it becomes clear to us that the public interest requires it,” he added.

Talking about foreign policy, the Crown Prince condemned “the aggressions of the Israeli occupation authority in the region,” specifically the “brutal aggression against the brotherly state of Qatar.” He also condemned attacks, forced displacement, and starvation tactics targeting Palestinians in Gaza, and argued the Arab Peace Initiative is a viable path to a Palestinian state.

WEATHER- Heavy rain still persists over Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and Al Baha, along with moderate to light showers over Najran. Riyadh will see temperatures peak at 42°C before cooling down to 30°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 41°C before cooling down to 32°C, and Makkah will see a 41°C high and 32°C low.

PSAs-

Businesses subject to excise tax must submit their July and August tax returns by Monday, 15 September, via Zatca’s website, the authority said in a statement yesterday. Late submissions will face a 5% penalty for every 30 days of delay.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Financing for Blackrock’s Jafurah investment locked in? A consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has arranged a financing package of nearly USD 10 bn to fund its investment in Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah natural gas project infrastructure, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

The details: The package includes a seven-year loan facility with a refinancing option and a separate 19-year loan. Major US and Japanese banks are taking part, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui, the newswire’s sources said.

IN CONTEXT- The financing supports a USD 11 bn lease and leaseback agreement signed last month between GIP’s consortium and Aramco, creating the Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC) joint venture in which Aramco holds 51% and the consortium 49% to manage the USD 100 bn Jafurah project’s infrastructure.

Saudi is bolstering ties with Europe: Investment Minister Khalid bin Abdulaziz Al Falih is heading a delegation to Poland on an official visit to strengthen economic ties and explore new investment opportunities, state news agency SPA reports. The agenda includes bilateral meetings with government officials and executives of major Polish companies, as well as participation in the Saudi-Polish Investment Forum in Warsaw, featuring workshops and discussions between public and private sector representatives.

ALSO- Development agency Invest Northern Ireland will lead a trade delegation of nine companies to the Kingdom and the UAE on 15-19 September, according to a press release. The mission is set to visit Riyadh, Dubai, and Ras Al Khaimah in a bid to discuss potential investments in major construction and sustainability projects.

The visits come hot on the heels of the Great Futures summit in London, which saw the signing of over GBP 360 mn in new joint investments. The agreements, unveiled by UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, are expected to create 187 jobs in both countries, with 97 of them located in the UK.

Not just Europe: Chinese firms are also doubling down on GCC. Nearly 90% of Chinese companies plan to expand in the Middle East, PwC’s latest survey shows. Some 44% of the 136 firms surveyed have already formalized business plans — with 84% eyeing Saudi Arabia and 79% of respondents targeting the UAE, while Egypt came in third for top investment destinations.

The rationale: Profitability is on the rise, with 40% of firms reporting positive returns from regional operations, while the share of loss-makers has fallen to 15%. Companies are also moving from representative offices to full-scale entities — 77% now operate through local entities — with growing interest in digital tech, renewables, AI, and biopharma.

What they want: Nearly three-quarters of surveyed firms called for clearer and more efficient regulations, while 72% are seeking tax incentives outside freezones, PwC said.

MARKET WATCH-

Global crude oil inventories are set to expand by more than 2 mn bbl / d through the first quarter of 2026, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest short-term energy outlook (pdf). The agency had previously expected the surplus in 4Q 2025, but revised its view as supply growth outpaces demand. The updated forecast doesn’t yet factor in the additional production that Opec recently agreed to roll out.

The accumulation of inventories is expected to weigh on prices, with Brent seen averaging USD 51 / bbl next year — well below its current USD 66.50 / bbl, according to the EIA outlook. The agency added that the market imbalance could force Opec+ and other producers to dial back output later in 2026 to stabilize prices.

Some forecasts see prices in the 50s: Goldman Sachs also expects an oil surplus in 2026, revising its estimate to 1.9 mn bbl / d, and sees Brent averaging USD 56 / bbl in 2026. S&P Global is also projecting weaker crude prices by year-end, with dated Brent seen falling toward USD 55 / bbl as Opec continues to release additional supply.

Can China help? China’s stockpiling of crude oil, which absorbed surplus supply throughout this year, is expected to persist at a comparable pace into 2026, Reuters reported citing Gunvor head of research Frederic Lasserre.

SPORTS-

The Call of Duty League’s (CDL) Vegas Falcons will relocate to Riyadh for the 2026 season, rebranding as the Riyadh Falcons, according to an X post. The team also signed 2021 world champion McArthur “Cellium” Jove, who joins as its third North American player after a seven-year tenure with Atlanta FaZe, it said in a separate post.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s only one story leading the conversation in the international press this morning: Prominent pro-Trump conservative influencer and co-founder of Turning Point USA Charlie Kirk was assassinated last night — shot dead while speaking at a Utah university. The 31-year-old, credited with mobilizing youth and minority voters for President Donald Trump’s second-term victory, was struck in the neck moments after taking a question on gun violence.

The killing — the latest in a string of violent attacks on US political figures — sent shockwaves through Washington. (Reuters | BBC | Associated Press | Financial Times | New York Times | The Guardian | Axios | Bloomberg)

ON THE MARKETS FRONT- Oracle’s blowout quarter briefly made chairman Larry Ellison the world’s richest person yesterday, overtaking Elon Musk after the software giant’s shares jumped 36%. Ellison’s net worth hit a peak of USD 386 bn before easing back by the market close, while Oracle’s market value surged to USD 922 bn on the back of huge cloud contracts tied to OpenAI and other AI leaders. (Financial Times | Bloomberg | The Guardian | BBC | Axios | Washington Post | Reuters)

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen — killing 35 and injuring over 100 — after the Houthis launched a drone attack that hit an Israeli airport. The attack comes one day after Israel launched an attack on Qatar. (AP | New York Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING-

#1- Poland has become the first NATO member to fire on suspected Russian drones during the war in Ukraine, after 19 objects crossed into its airspace overnight during a Russian air attack on Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident a “large-scale provocation” and activated Article 4 of the NATO treaty, requesting emergency consultation with allies. (Reuters | Associated Press | The Guardian | BBC | New York Times)

#2- Life on Mars? NASA scientists say new rock samples collected from an ancient riverbed on Mars could hold the strongest evidence so far of ancient microbial life — though they stress much more analysis is needed. (Associated Press | CNN)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Jeddah Construct will run from 28 to 30 September at the Jeddah Superdome,

convening over 13k professionals and 200 exhibitors from over 25 countries to showcase over 3.5k products, solutions, and opportunities in the Western Province’s USD 692 bn construction market.

The 2025 Saudi International Falcons and Hunting Exhibition will run between 2-11 October in Riyadh. Organized by the Saudi Falcons Club, this year’s edition will feature a falcon auction, the Shalayel Museum, safari events, equestrian shows, and the Falconer of the Future event for children.

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