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Opec+ will raise output again next month, approving an additional 137k bbl / d from October as part of its accelerated rollback supply cuts, according to a press release. The group said that it will continue monthly hikes through September 2026, fast-tracking the return of 1.65 mn bbl / d that was previously set to stay offline until end-2026.
Blindsiding the market: Analysts had said Riyadh was unlikely to push more barrels into the market immediately, as the Kingdom seeks to balance its market-share play against the risk of adding to a surplus and pressuring prices further. The bloc has already added some 2.5 mn bbl / d since starting output hikes in April, reversing its 2023 supply curbs. Crude has stayed near USD 70/bbl, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, and by Opec+ supply falling short of pledges.
BUT- Most members are already pumping at or near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the only producers able to meaningfully increase supply, Reuters reports, citing analysts and production data.
By the numbers: Middle East crude exports slipped to a three-month low of 17.13 mn bbl / d in August, down 754k bbl / d from June’s peak, even as Opec+ has been ramping production, Mees reports. Regional Opec+ quotas have risen by a cumulative 1.45 mn bbl / d since August last year, but actual exports increased by only 471k bbl / d, topping out at 17.89 mn bbl / d in June, Mees said, citing Kpler data.
The August drop was driven in part by higher summer oil burn, but a bigger story is the pivot toward refined products. While crude shipments have fallen over the past two months, refined product exports from the region surged to a record 5.32 mn bbl / d in August, according to Kpler data.
Seasonal demand patterns mean Opec+’s output hikes were never going to translate into a summer export surge, with much of the extra crude absorbed by domestic consumption. The real test comes in 4Q, when cooling demand at home could free up Saudi and its neighbors to push more barrels onto the market — raising fears of a supply glut, Mees said.
