Saudi Arabia leads Opec’s July production surge: The Kingdom’s oil production grew by 170k bbl / d m-o-m to reach 9.5 mn bbl / d in July, making up over half of the cartel’s monthly increase, according to Opec’s monthly report (pdf). This builds on a pattern of monthly increases from 9.4 mn bbl / d in June and 9.2 mn bbl / d in May.

Opec output and prices on the up: Opec output rose 335k bbl / d in July to 41.9 mn bbl / d, and Opec output grew 263k bbl / d to 27.5 mn bbl / d. The Opec Reference Basket rose USD 1.24 m-o-m to USD 70.97 a barrel.

Behind the numbers: The report continued to use “supply-to-market” figures rather than traditional production data, as it did for June, which kept Saudi Arabia’s production within its quota. The change followed a request from the Energy Ministry and stated that the extra oil produced due to geopolitical tensions went into storage and did not reach the market.

Opec supply growth to be outpaced by non-members: Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from Opec members are expected to grow 0.1 mn bbl / d annually, reaching 8.7 mn bbl / d in 2025 and 8.8 mn bbl / d in 2026. Meanwhile, non-Opec liquids production is forecast to grow 0.8 mn bbl / d in 2025, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, with growth easing to 0.6 mn bbl / d in 2026.

Opec held its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 steady at 1.3 mn bbl / d, with OECD demand rising 100k bbl / d and non-OECD demand up 1.2 mn bbl / d. The organization raised its projection for 2026, increasing the expected demand growth by 100k bpd to 1.4 mn bpd on stronger economic activity, split between OECD (up 200k bbl / d) and non-OECD (up 1.2 mn bbl / d).

Opec+ leaders will meet on 7 September to decide their next steps.

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