S&P Global Ratings raised forecasts for the Kingdom’s GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in 2025, citing an increase in the country’s oil production to 9.5 mn bbl / d starting July, up from 9 mn in 1H 2025, the agency said in its Economic Outlook Emerging Markets report published on Tuesday.

The outlook isn’t as positive for the next two years: The agency also lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, and brought down its forecasts for 2027 to 3.2%, and for 2028 to 3.1%. The revisions were attributed to the revised GDP methodology by the Kingdom’s General Authority of Statistics (Gastat).

REMEMBER- Gastat recently updated its nominal and real GDP historical data over 2011-2024 as part of a revision project that looks to better capture economic transformation, with more detailed insights over the performance of key sectors in the economy. GDP growth during 1Q 2025 was hence revised upwards to 3.4% y-o-y from the 2.7% figure reported back in May.

Under the new GDP series, “2024 non-oil GDP increased by around 20% in nominal terms, which in turn automatically implies a smaller effect of Vision 2030 investments in relative terms, and therefore, smaller effect on headline GDP growth,” the report reads.

More optimistic than other predictions: The World Bank kept its GDP growth forecasts unchanged earlier this month for the Kingdom at 2.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. In April, the IMF cut its forecasts for the Kingdom’s GDP growth in 2025 to by 0.3 percentage points to 3%, and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026, compared to its January estimates. The downward revisions reflect ongoing uncertainty around oil production levels and the pace of non-oil sector expansion.

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