Saudi Edition 
Egypt Edition 
UAE Edition 
MENA <> India Corridor 
Logistics (MENA) 
Climate (MENA) 
Share
The World Bank maintained its GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia at 2.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 in its Global Economic Prospects report (pdf), leaving them unchanged from its previous forecast back in April. The forecast for the current year reflects the gradual expansion of oil production.
Fiscal deficits are set to widen in the next two years: Saudi Arabia — and GCC countries at large — are expected to see fiscal deficits widening in 2025, with declines in revenue that are set to stem from “lower global oil prices outweighing reductions in expenditure,” the bank wrote. Deficits are expected to remain in 2026 despite oil revenues being expected to increase in 2026, which is partly “owing to spending pressures, including in Saudi Arabia,” the report reads.
The bank had earlier trimmed its growth forecasts for this year by 0.6 percentage points, due to “expected lower oil prices and fiscal revenues leading to lower export proceeds, as well as heightened uncertainty curbing investment.”
REFRESHER- In early April, Opec+ announced a long-delayed plan to gradually release 2.2 mn bbl /d of oil to the market over 18 months and then proceeded to accelerate these output hikes at triple the initially expected rate, with that last hike agreed on during the group’s meeting late last month.
How this compares to other forecasts: The International Monetary Fund opted to cut its growth forecast for the Kingdom’s GDP by 0.3 percentage points to 3% in 2025 and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026. S&P Global earlier expected our GDP to grow by 2.8% in 2025, while Fitch Ratings, more optimistic than most, penciled in growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026.
The region as a whole, however, has not fared trade tensions and a slump in oil prices as well as Saudi, with the World Bank’s latest forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa coming in at 2.7% y-o-y for the current fiscal year. Despite a marginal 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its April projection on the back of “an expansion of oil activity in oil exporters,” forecasts are still 0.7 percentage points below the World Bank’s pre-trade war January forecast and a whole 1.5 percentage points below the bank’s 2025 forecast before that.
