Good morning, everyone, and happy THURSDAY. We wrap up the week on a high note, with a wealth of updates on trade, debt markets, public listings, and more.

In this morning’s news well: The Kingdom’s non-oil exports rose by 4% in 2024, while oil exports saw a slight decline. Over in debt markets, the PIF successfully sold USD 1.25 bn in sukuk, as Saudi’s borrowing momentum continues.

ALSO- The cabinet approved amendments for the White Land Tax law amid wider real estate reforms, and the startup scene witnessed erad secure USD 16 mn in pre-series A funding. Meanwhile, Dome International plans to float a 14.5% stake on Nomu, adding to the busy pipeline of listings.

SPEAKING OF IPOS- We sat down with Baker McKenzie’s Nadine Nassar and Robert Eastwood to unpack the legal playbook for going public in Saudi Arabia — from restructuring and prospectus drafting to compliance after the listing. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

BSF kicks off AT1 bond sale: Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) opened books on a new six-year USD-denominated additional tier one (AT1) bond sale, it said in a filing to Tadawul. Initial price thoughts are out at around 6.875%, Zawya reports. The offering, which falls under the lender’s USD 3 bn capital note program, closes today.

ADVISORS- The lender enlisted HSBC, Mashreq, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup Global, Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Emirates NBD Bank, Merrill Lynch, Mizuho International, MUFG Securities, and Saudi Fransi Capital as joint lead managers.

WEATHER- Thunderstorms may rumble through Makkah, while clouds linger over Madinah and Riyadh.

  • Riyadh: 40°C daytime / 28°C overnight
  • Makkah: 49°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Madinah: 38°C daytime / 25°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Non-oil sector in the Kingdom remains resilient in the face of global headwinds, Head of MEA in Fitch’s Sovereign Ratings Group Paul Gamble told Asharq Business in an interview.

Fitch ratings slightly bumped Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast to 3.5% in 2025, forecasting non-oil GDP expanding by 4.2% as well — despite lower oil prices, Gamble added. The ratings agency projects a deficit of 5.1% this year, backed by lower oil price forecasts at USD 65. This is a wider deficit than its earlier forecast of 3.8%.

REMEMBER- The World Bank cut its GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia to 2.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, while the IMF revised its forecast downward by 0.3 percentage points to 3% for 2025 and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% for 2026.

PIF-owned aircraft leasing firm Saudi Arabia’s AviLease is planning to issue USD 2 bn in sukuk by 2027, starting with a USD 750 mn tranche this year, Asharq Business reports citing CEO Edward O’Brien. The new funding will add to the company’s USD 2.25 bn in existing loans, bringing its liquidity to 30% of total assets.

With a current fleet of 200 aircraft worth USD 8 bn, AviLease aims to grow its portfolio to 500 aircraft by 2030, capitalizing on strong domestic demand from airlines including Riyadh Air, Saudia, and flynas.

Seera Group’s travel platform Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026, CEO Muzzammil Ahussain told Khaleej Times. The company began appointing advisors, though details on the size and structure of the IPO remain under wraps, he said.

Almosafer reported a strong performance in 2024, with gross bookings exceeding SAR 6 bn, fueled by robust demand across domestic, regional, and international markets, according to Ahussain. Growth was particularly strong in the company’s Hajj and Umrah services, while shifting travel trends — driven by the rise of low-cost carriers and relaxed visa requirements — helped ramp up demand for budget travel and alternative accommodations, he added.

ALSO- PIF-backed California firm CloudKitchens is reportedly eyeing an IPO in Saudi or the UAE (or both) for its Middle East unit, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The ghost kitchen startup — cofounded by Uber’s former CEO Travis Kalanick — tapped Goldman Sachs to work on its potential debut.

While no final call on size or timing has yet been made, the move would mark a major regional play for a company whose KitchenPark facilities already operate in the Kingdom, UAE and Kuwait.

SPORTS-

Kawasaki dispatched Al Nassr three goals to one and advanced to the final of the AFC Champions League. The Japanese side took the lead early in the game, scoring twice in the first half. The second half saw Al Alami attacking without delivering the final punch, leaving spaces in the back for Azzurro Nero to widen the lead.

What’s next? Kawasaki Frontale will face Al Ahli in the final match scheduled for Saturday, 3 May, at 7:30 PM.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US is grabbing most headlines in the global business press. The biggest story of the day: The US’ economy contracted by an annual 0.3% for the first time in three years last quarter, as President Donald Trump’s trade war spurred a rush to imports. (Financial Times | Bloomberg | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | Politico | AP)

Wall Street surprisingly shrugged off the news, with the S&P 500 recovering from earlier losses of 2% as investors bought the dip, anticipating intervention from the US Federal Reserve to bolster the economy. The Nasdaq slid 0.1%. (Bloomberg | FT | CNBC)

Stocks are expected to extend their gains into tomorrow with futures rising on the back of a strong set of earnings from Microsoft — which beat analyst estimates on good Azure cloud performance and gave positive guidance for the rest of the year — and Meta, which also beat estimates as it pledged to double down on capital spending in AI infrastructure, shrugging off the impact of tariffs. (CNBC | Reuters)

PLUS- The US and Ukraine inked an economic partnership that will give the US access to the Eastern European country’s natural resources, following weeks of negotiations that stalled amid tensions over a US-Russia ceasefire agreement the US is trying to broker. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT | NYT)

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