Good morning. It’s a relatively calm day in the Kingdom (although we wish we could say the same elsewhere.) Markets are still rife with uncertainty as tariffs and countermeasures between the US and trading partners continue to roil markets.

The big story today: We sat down with EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din to give us his take on scenarios for oil prices, and what they could mean for budget deficits and gigaprojects in the Kingdom.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s the final day of the Sports Investment Forum (SIF) at the Ritz Carlton hotel in Riyadh, and the final hours for industry specialists and leaders to build cross-border partnerships. The forum’s objectives include showcasing advanced technologies, improving player and fan experiences, promoting sports academies, and using AI for sports analysis and smart stadiums.

WEATHER- Expect clear skies in Riyadh, while Makkah and Madinah are to see some clouds.

  • Riyadh: 38°C daytime / 24°C overnight
  • Makkah: 40°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Madinah: 38°C daytime / 24°C overnight

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Tesla is debuting in the Kingdom tomorrow at the Bujairi Terrace in Riyadh. The event will showcase the company’s electric vehicles, solar-powered products, and new technology, including an autonomous taxi and humanoid robot.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Ma’aden is considering partnering with at least one foreign company to a rare earths processing facility and a magnet plant in the Kingdom, Reuters reports, citing three sources it says are in the know. Four companies are under consideration, including Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, Canada’s Neo Performance Materials, China’s Shenghe Resources, and US-based MP Materials.

When? Ma’aden might choose a partner by the end of June and complete feasibility studies by December, the sources said, with no official confirmation from Ma’aden or any of the companies involved.

ALSO FROM MA’ADEN- The minerals giant received an approval to acquire an additional 25.1% (128 mn shares) stake in Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Company (MBAC), bringing its ownership of shares to 100%, said the Egyptian Competition Authority in a statement (pdf).

REFRESHER- Maaden agreed to buy a 25.1% stake in its JV with Alcoa US-based Alcoa for USD 1.1 bn in September 2024. The agreement gave Ma’aden full control of both Ma’aden Aluminium Company and MBAC.

Liger operator taps Amwal as advisor ahead of Nomu IPO: Homegrown food and beverages firm Eradah has enlisted Amwal Financial as the financial advisor for its potential IPO on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu, according to a press release. The move — part of the company’s plans to expand its domestic offerings — is contingent upon regulatory approvals.

About Eradah: Founded in 2019, Eradah owns and operates seven F&B names across the Kingdom including cake and coffee chain Liger, Green Bottle, pastry-maker JIC and specialty coffee roastery Seed, according to the press release.

The Kingdom is now home to Meta’s latest AI language model: Meta’s Llama 4 Scout and Maverick language models are now available in the Middle East on GroqCloud through a newly launched data center in Dammam, according to a press release. The high-performance inference platform was developed by US-based AI infrastructure firm Groq in partnership with the Communications and Information Technology Ministry and Meta.

REMEMBER- Groq and Aramco Digital agreed to invest USD 1.5 bn to launch the world’s largest AI inference node in Saudi during Leap 2025. The facility aims at hosting Groq’s language models while onboarding developers and processing tokens on a large scale.

SFD to support renewables in Solomon Islands: The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) signed a USD 10 mn development loan agreement to help develop renewable energy infrastructure in the Solomon Islands, according to a press release. The project includes 35.5 MW of solar power plants with energy storage systems. The agreement marks SFD’s first development loan to the Pacific region.

Part of a global push: SFD pledged USD 150 mn to support mining in Balochistan in December, agreed to develop a framework with the Saudi Global Water Organization to finance water projects around the world in October, and signed a USD 83 mn development loan agreement with El Salvador to fund a water treatment and biogas power generation project in June.

DATA POINTS-

Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom slipped 47.6% w-o-w in the week ending Saturday, 5 April to c. SAR 10.5 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s report (pdf). The number of weekly transactions also fell by 22% w-o-w to 191.6 mn.

The details: PoS transactions on restaurants and cafes were the only item that witnessed a growth in terms of value, rising only 2.6% w-o-w to SAR 2.2 bn. Clothing and footwear registered the steepest slip in value with a dip of 82.0% w-o-w, to just over SAR 569.9 mn.

Riyadh once again had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 3.3 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 1.5 bn— albeit both fell by 49.9% and 49.7% w-o-w respectively.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

US President Donald Trump’s decision to follow through with his threat of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods is the single big story abroad across the global business pages — along with the market sell-off it triggered despite relative calm across markets earlier in the day.

The tariff, which reaches up to 120% for some goods, pushed stock losses to the USD 10 tn mark — with the S&P 500 experiencing a sharp swing after gaining some 4% earlier in the day, to end the day 1.6% down. The index is now down 18.9% — dangerously close to the 20% mark defining a bear market.

Wait, why had markets rallied earlier? Markets had reacted positively earlier to signs that Trump is open to negotiations with some countries over the tariffs, with the administration scheduling talks with South Korea and Japan, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni due to visit the US next week. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT | WSJ)

AND- Oil prices also hit a fresh four-year low on the news, with Brent crude futures reaching USD 62.82 a barrel. (Reuters)

We have more on the escalating trade war — and the potential response from China — in Planet Finance, below.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The 2025 Middle East Poultry Expo returns to Riyadh from 14 to 16 April at the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center. The 15 sqm venue is gearing up to receive more than 320 exhibitors from over 40 countries, marking a significant growth compared to last year ’s 207 exhibitors from 37 countries.

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