Good morning, wonderful people. We have a cliffhanger for you this morning in Dubai, where Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman landed just hours before a new draft agreement came out of COP28.

The agreement waters down calls for a phase-out of hydrocarbons in a nod to objections from Saudi and other Arab producers — but will European and small island nations sign on? We’ll know more after 8:30am KSA when the COP28 plenary is set to convene.

THE BEST USE OF YOUR TIME THIS MORNING-

BENEDICT EVANS is back with his annual presentation on the macro and strategic trends that will shape technology and business in the new year. Evans rose to prominence at Andreessen Horowitz and now runs his own consultancy — and is a sharp presence on Threads, for those so inclined.

His AI-focused deck this year has few answers, and plenty of questions — many of them worth pondering regardless of the industry in which you do business. Among the questions and takeaways:

  • The tech venture space is slowing down across the board — except within AI
  • Finance and tech executives are pushing hardest to figure out what AI means for their businesses. Retail and professional services execs are lagging behind.
  • Nobody knows what’s next: Is this a platform shift? Does generative AI change the nature of software? Does it take us to artificial general intelligence?

^^ The presentation is at its best when it’s unpacking all the questions within those last three questions. It’s worth an hour of your time this morning to read the presentation (87 easy-to-read slides) and then watch Evans deliver it in this video recorded earlier this month (watch, runtime: 27:40).

MEANWHILE- It’s silly season for forecasters: Of the many odd traditions on Planet Finance, perhaps the one we most look forward to is what Reuters’ Jamie McGeever calls the “quirky, semi-serious” forecasts of unpredictable “Black Swan” events pumped out around this time of year by everyone from sell-side research houses to hedge funds.

Among the top KSA-relevant calls as we head into the new year:

  • With oil at USD 150, Saudi buys Champions League franchise. (Saxo)
  • Brent crude falls to USD 40 barrel on recession fears. (Standard Chartered)
  • Emerging markets stage the best rally in over 10 years. (Standard Chartered)
  • Saudi Arabia reverses all oil supply cuts. (Morgan Stanley’s EM team)
  • Egypt restructures its debt. (Morgan Stanley’s EM team)
  • EM inflows return in size. (Morgan Stanley’s EM team)

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Bandar Al Khorayef landed in South Korea yesterday and is scheduled to pitch investors on the Kingdom’s industrial, manufacturing, and mining sectors, the state-run news agency SPA reports.

Strong ties with Seoul: The Public Investment Fund signed in October an agreement that will see global car giant Hyundai set up a car plant here in a bid to localize the industry. Last month, the Saudi International Industrial Village Company (SSKIV) and several South Korean firms signed an SAR 21.8 bn agreement to set up a multi-facility industrial park. Bloomberg, meanwhile, reports that Saudi officials could be shopping for missiles from Korea.

#2- Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will wrap his two-day visit to Riyadh today after participating in a forum at the Saudi Arabia National Defense University.

#3- The inaugural Global Labor Market Conference kicks off today in Riyadh. The two-dayevent brings together business leaders, policymakers, regulators, and researchers to chew over the prospects and challenges facing global labor markets — from AI to climate change. The conference takes place at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC).

#4- It’s the second and final day of the World Football Summit Asia in Jeddah. The gathering coincides with the FIFA Club World Cup 2023, also hosted in Jeddah and running 12-22 December.

Speaking of the FIFA Club Cup: Hosts Al-Ittihad put down Auckland City 3-0 in the opener. Al-Ittihad goes on to face Egypt’s Al-Ahly in the second round this coming Friday.

PSA #1-The State Department has broken ground on the site of its new embassy in Riyadh’s Diplomatic Quarter, with US officials saying in a statement it marks a “significant milestone in the enduring US-Saudi bilateral partnership and underscores the commitment of both nations to strengthening ties.” State hopes the building will earn LEED certification for its green footprint

PSA #2- Your kids will be logging into Madrasati this morning if you live in Jeddah, Rabigh, or Khulais as schools move to remote learning in the anticipation of really nasty weather. The national weather center is calling for moderate to heavy rain followed by a sand storm and a chance of hail today from 9am through 7pm.

WEATHER- Cloudy skies and late-morning wind will give way to sunshine this afternoon in Riyadh, with a high of 23°C. Dammam can expect a high of 28°C and sunny skies.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

Over a dozen mining exploration licenses could be up for grabs soon: The Kingdom will offer 40 mining exploration licenses next month, Deputy Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Khalid Al Mudaifer told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:39).

Banking on massive demand for copper: The licenses, which will be announced before the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh next month, will focus on copper, zinc and iron exploration, Al Mudaifer said, noting, “Copper is one of the most important strategic minerals … due to its use in electric vehicles and renewable energy. Demand for copper in the next 30 years will be for twice the copper consumed or produced in the past 300 years.”

DATA POINTS-

#1- Saudi is one of the world’s top 15 economies after GDP grew 66% in the seven years since the launch of Vision 2030, Asharq Al Awsat quotes Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih as having said during a workshop in Guangzhou, where he’s on a mission to drum up Chinese investment.

#2- Ports in Saudi Arabia handled 737.5k containers in November, a 17% increase on the same period last year, according to figures released by the Saudi Port Authority (Mawani) yesterday. The number of export containers rose 16% to 212k, while the number of passengers arriving in ports rose 6% to 78k.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

#1- The United States is (slightly) changing its tone on Israel’s war on Gaza with President Joe Biden warning that its ally is “losing support” for its war. Biden called Benjamin Netanyahu’s bombing campaign in Gaza “indiscriminate” and said the Israeli leader needs to accept a two-state solution.

You can feel the worm turning: NYT foreign affairs columnist Thomas Friedman, meanwhile, suggests that Israel can’t bank on money or boots on the ground from the Arab world to rebuild Gaza when it’s done turning the enclave into rubble. Israel must have a “legitimate, effective Palestinian partner and commits to one day negotiating a two-state solution,” he says, suggesting after a visit to Riyadh that Saudi officials are still open to normalizing ties with Israel.

Wait, Thomas Friedman? Isn’t he, uhm … spent? Scoff at his orientalism, his simplistic (often jingoistic) takes (we do), but even his critics admit the guy is having something of a renaissance of late — and is once again being read in western capitals.

#2- Pundits are taking stock of what Google’s Epic app store loss in court means for the future of its Play Store and Apple’s App store. Increasing scrutiny from regulators could “derail profits” for both stores, the Wall Street Journal warns. But don’t expect changes anytime soon — for years, perhaps, CNBC warns: Google is likely to appeal the ruling (which we covered yesterday).

What they’re are missing: The app stores may (or may not — antitrust law, like copyright law, is so often in the eye of the beholder) be anti-competitive, but their existence created a largely safe, multi-bn USD economy. App stores keep users safe from malicious (and just plain bad) third-party apps and are the first line of defense against mobile fraud and predatory practices. Tech enthusiasts and dev nerds alike will want to watch this space closely.

#3- Apple aims to make your iPhone even safer with “stolen device protection,” a feature set to roll out in iOS 17.3 that would “require authentication through Face ID or Touch ID to perform certain actions.” The changes come after fantastic reporting by Wall Street Journal tech columnist Joanna Stern about how easy it was for thieves to take over your digital life if they managed to snag your device and passcode. Not a WSJ subscriber? Head over to the Verge for the rundown.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The FIFA Club World Cupruns through Friday, 22 December in Jeddah. You can buy tickets here.

The Fintech Tour wraps up today. The fintech-focused gathering includes more than 15 events, presentations, and meetups involving key local and international speakers in eight cities across the country.

The International Arabian Horse Show kicks off today and continues through Saturday, 16 December at the King Abdulaziz Center for Purebred Arabian Horses’ headquarters in Riyadh.

Metallica is coming to Riyadh on Thursday as part of the eclectic musicfestival Soundstorm. Soundstorm runs 14-16 December with a lineup that also includes Pharrell Williams, Chris Brown and Her, DJs Tiesto and David Guetta, Black Eyed Peas, and others.

The Jeddah Book Fair will run until Saturday, with over 1k publishing houses set to attend.

Cycling fans have just two days left until the Arab Road Cycling Championship comes to Riyadh, with the event running 15-23 December.

Riyadh will host theTurkish Super Cup finalbetween Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe on Friday, 29 December at Alawwal Park Stadium as part of the Riyadh Season.

Tickets are on sale for the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix with less than 100 days to go until the racetrack roars to life in Jeddah from 7-9 March. Grandstand, premium hospitality, and general admission tickets are now available.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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