Saudi is leading a group of oil producers pushing back on a phaseout of fossil fuels in what US and European leaders are turning into a “make-or-break” moment in the battle against climate change.

The issue: One draft agreement making the rounds in Dubai, backed by some 80 countries including the US and the European Union, calls for a “phaseout” of all oil, natural gas, and coal. It would be the first time in 30 years that the COP process would call for a phaseout.

The Kingdom is leading a faction of oil-producing countries that are having none of that, as we’ve reported since COP28 kicked off. Saudi and other Arab producers argue that tackling climate change is about reducing emissions, not about the mix of energy sources on which economies rely. OPEC is fully on side, with its chief having said in a letter last week that its members will “reject any test or formula that targets energy, i.e. fossil fuels, rather than emissions.”

AND- Saudi negotiators are also said to be pushing back on the idea of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Talks are now said to have become heated in the negotiating rooms as Saudi officials use procedural tactics to slow discussions.

Pushing back on a double standard: The Kingdom is using proceeds from oil production to fund the growth and diversification of the non-oil economy. We’re now being told to dial-back our ambitions. This comes as oil production in the US is surging — and after European countries turned on coal-fired power plants when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended the continent’s energy markets.

Cry “Havoc,” and let slip the insults of Europeans: Saudi is lobbying the UAE to curb the Western push against hydrocarbons — prompting a furious backlash from European Union negotiators. Officials from EU nations are calling diplomacy by Saudi and OPEC countries at COP28 “out of whack” and “unhelpful” — even “disgusting.”

A possible compromise? Some are trying to build consensus on the idea of phasing out fossilfuels for power plants and other facilities that don’t have carbon capture and sequestration technology. China and the US — the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gasses — are also pushing for a compromise.

Why it matters so much: Under UN rules any one of the 198 countries attending can prevent the adoption of a final text. Saudi foil Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, is demanding delegates reach a consensus on an “orderly and just decline in fossil fuels in line with our international climate goals” before the summit wraps up, he told the Financial Times.

Why today is so big: It’s the next-to-last (official) day of COP28, and talks are set to kick into high gear. You can expect marathon overnight negotiations — and the prospect of overtime.

Also likely to get lots of attention today: adaptation. Some developing countries think text on funding for climate adaptation is “weak.” The UN Environment Program has already identified an adaptation funding gap of around USD 387 bn.

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