{"id":709388,"date":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=709388"},"modified":"2026-06-11T02:54:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T02:54:04","slug":"fitch-turns-bearish-on-global-sovereigns-and-the-middle-east-is-taking-the-hardest-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/06\/11\/fitch-turns-bearish-on-global-sovereigns-and-the-middle-east-is-taking-the-hardest-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch turns bearish on global sovereigns \u2014 and the Middle East is taking the hardest hit"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch turns bearish:<\/strong> Fitch revised its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to \u201cdeteriorating\u201d from the \u201cneutral\u201d stance held in its late-2025 report, citing the economic and security fallout from the US-Iran war, according to the ratings agency\u2019s mid-year outlook report shared with EnterpriseAM. The revision covers every major region Fitch tracks (except for China) \u2014 and the Middle East bears the brunt of the damage.<\/p>\n

Ratings watch for most in the region, including Qatar and Ras Al Khaimah, has turned negative<\/strong>, with no positive outlooks regionwide, Fitch says.<\/p>\n

The agency\u2019s base case<\/strong> is where the Strait of Hormuz begins to reopen around July on the back of a US-Iran understanding, with oil production recovering quickly, given that infrastructure has largely escaped serious damage. Brent is now penciled in at USD 87 \/ bbl for 2026, up sharply from USD 68.3 \/ bbl last year \u2014 a windfall for Gulf exporters but a headache for import-dependent economies like Egypt and Jordan in the broader region.<\/p>\n

This is despite GCC ratings remaining resilient so far through the war. <\/strong>\u201cMost GCC sovereign ratings have been resilient to the war due to generally very strong sovereign balance sheets backed by alternative export channels (Oman, Saudi Arabia and UAE\/Abu Dhabi) or prospects for additional support (Bahrain),\u201d Paul Gamble, head of Middle East\/Africa sovereigns at Fitch, said.<\/p>\n

The outlook is still pretty bleak for the region: <\/strong>\u201cSecurity conditions will continue to test this near-term resilience and there will be a lasting adverse impact on the security and business environment<\/strong>,\u201d Gamble said.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51,257<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1% (YTD: +22.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,013<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +5.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,577<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -4.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,757<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -4.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,267<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: +6.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,255<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,010<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 94.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,110<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62,138<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: -29.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,058<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +6.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.22<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+11.8% (YTD: +48.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30<\/strong> fell 2.1% at <\/strong>yesterday\u2019s<\/strong> close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 10.8 bn (28.1% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 22.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Orascom Construction (+1.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Raya Holding (-7.0%), Qalaa Holdings (-6.7%), and Kima (-5.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ratings agency\u2019s base case is for a partial strait reopening \u2014 but warns the war\u2019s damage to the region\u2019s business environment will outlast the fighting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":709389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[104,72,119,8565,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-709388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-fitch","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bb7fbde8-451b-4334-85a3-03ef6e7e29d4","order":"9","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/697.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Resilient \u2014 for now","related_issue":[709373],"teaser":"The ratings agency\u2019s base case is for a partial strait reopening \u2014 but warns the war\u2019s damage to the region\u2019s business environment will outlast the fighting"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch turns bearish on global sovereigns \u2014 and the Middle East is taking the hardest hit - 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