{"id":709381,"date":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=709381"},"modified":"2026-06-11T02:53:59","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T02:53:59","slug":"the-rationale-behind-madboulys-no-new-imf-program-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/06\/11\/the-rationale-behind-madboulys-no-new-imf-program-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"The rationale behind Madbouly\u2019s no-new-IMF-program signal"},"content":{"rendered":"

No talks are underway for a new IMF program to follow the current USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility after it expires in December<\/strong>, a government official close to the matter tells EnterpriseAM \u2014 which goes against speculation by Standard Chartered yesterday that a smaller successor facility remains on the table.<\/p>\n

End of program, not end of relationship:<\/strong> The source says the government is currently focused on completing the seventh review and the eighth (and final) review in November. Even after the program ends in December, the Fund will continue conducting periodic economic reviews and providing technical and advisory support, the source notes.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>After the Fund\u2019s most recent visit<\/a> in May, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Egypt sees no need for a new program<\/a>, arguing that current conditions are \u201csufficiently stable to allow it to continue implementing its reform agenda without the need for additional financing programs.\u201d But some analysts disagree. Yesterday, Standard Chartered economist Bader Al Sarraf said Egypt could enter a new, limited IMF program<\/a> worth less than the current USD 8 bn<\/a> during a Cairo press conference, with the scope dependent on the challenges the country faces going forward.<\/p>\n

Analysts read this as a medium-term call, not a permanent break.<\/strong> Hany Genena, head of research at Al Ahly Pharos, tells EnterpriseAM that the next two to three years look financeable on the strength of remaining IMF tranches, fiscal reforms, privatization, and subsidy restructuring \u2014 but that \u201cit is difficult for any country to assert conclusively that it will not need the Fund in the long term.\u201d <\/p>\n

The structural tailwinds to keep an eye on: <\/strong>Genena sees that Egypt is better positioned to finance its \u201ctwin deficits,\u201d fiscal and current account, with debt-for-investment swaps \u2014 including potential conversion of Gulf exposures into direct investments \u2014 as a tool that could shrink external liabilities further.<\/p>\n

Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed is more cautious, warning that external factors could cause sudden currency or balance-of-payments crises.<\/strong> \u201cInflation could reaccelerate globally, or the US Federal Reserve could return to a tighter monetary stance by withdrawing liquidity or raising interest rates,\u201d she explains, making \u201cit difficult to state with certainty whether Egypt will need to return to the IMF at some point in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finding other funds: <\/strong>While the debate over another IMF program continues, our source tells us that discussions are ongoing to secure \u201cadditional financing from international and development institutions over the next fiscal year.\u201d<\/p>\n

REMEMBER<\/strong>-<\/strong> Egypt expects<\/a> to receive the remaining EUR 3 bn under the EU macro-financial assistance<\/a> package before year-end, which is slated for disbursement in two tranches. The package was pledged in 2024 and promised EUR 5 bn in concessional loans. Egypt has received two tranches of EUR 1 bn so far \u2014 the first in January 2025 and the second in January 2026. However, the country needs to clear more structural benchmarks before it can secure the remaining funds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Even after the program ends, the Fund will continue conducting periodic economic reviews and providing technical and advisory support<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":709382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,272,1874],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-709381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-mostafa-madbouly","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4d30082f-9184-43bf-80da-31be9da4e754","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/718.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Why Madbouly believes Egypt can go without a new IMF program after 2026","related_issue":[709373],"teaser":"Even after the program ends, the Fund will continue conducting periodic economic reviews and providing technical and advisory support"},"yoast_head":"\nThe rationale behind Madbouly\u2019s no-new-IMF-program signal - 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The government has been in talks with the IMF\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/185.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544866,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/24\/here-we-go-egypt-imf-confirm-talks-over-new-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":709381,"position":1},"title":"Here we go: Egypt, IMF confirm talks over new program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s official: The government has requested support from the IMF to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on its economy. Statements from the IMF and cabinet yesterday confirmed that the two sides are in talks on a new program, though it remains unclear what kind of assistance the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/336.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":686008,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/02\/26\/imf-completes-fifth-sixth-reviews-of-egypts-usd-8-bn-loan-program\/","url_meta":{"origin":709381,"position":2},"title":"IMF completes fifth, sixth reviews of Egypt\u2019s USD 8 bn loan program","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 February 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Our extended fund facility with the IMF comes to a close in December","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Story Today"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Story 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