{"id":709378,"date":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=709378"},"modified":"2026-06-11T02:53:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T02:53:56","slug":"egypts-urban-inflation-eases-to-14-6-but-dont-expect-a-rate-cut-just-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/06\/11\/egypts-urban-inflation-eases-to-14-6-but-dont-expect-a-rate-cut-just-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s urban inflation eases to 14.6%, but don\u2019t expect a rate cut just yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in May, easing 0.3 percentage points to 14.6% y-o-y<\/strong>, according to Capmas data (pdf)<\/a>, broadly in line with market expectations. However, monthly inflation accelerated to 1.6% m-o-m from 1.1% in April<\/a>, reflecting lingering price pressures. The reading is close to HC Securities<\/a> \u2019 forecast of 14.7% and Reuters<\/a> \u2019 median estimate of 14.5%.<\/p>\n

What drove the monthly increase? <\/strong>\u201cFood and non-alcoholic beverages, the largest segment by weight, increased by 2.4% m-o-m, driven by higher fish and seafood prices of 2.1% m-o-m and higher vegetable prices by 2.3% m-o-m, exceeding our estimates of 1.2%,\u201d HC Securities economist Heba Monir tells EnterpriseAM. Housing and utilities also ticked up 2.2% m-o-m, compared to a 4.2% m-o-m increase in April.<\/p>\n

Analysts weigh in: <\/strong>EFG Hermes chief economist Mohamed Abu Basha notes the print was slightly above their 14.2% forecast due to higher electricity<\/a> and telecommunications costs<\/a>, but emphasizes that \u201cthe disinflation trend remains intact.\u201d<\/p>\n

A mixed message for policymakers? <\/strong>Veteran banker Mohamed Abdel Aal argues that the acceleration in monthly inflation sends a \u201cmixed signal,\u201d indicating that price pressures across food and services have not fully dissipated. \u201cThe data appear to support a cautious, wait-and-see approach to monetary policy rather than a rapid move toward further easing,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Th<\/strong>ings are steady, for now:<\/strong> While Thndr economist Esraa Ahmed describes inflation as \u201csomewhat stable\u201d \u2014 having stayed in the 13% to 15% range since February \u2014 she warns that upside risks remain for the coming months due to the possibility of another hike in fuel prices and continued volatility in the food and energy markets.<\/p>\n

The outlook remain<\/strong>s tilted toward a rate hold.<\/strong> \u201cGiven no foreseen end to the current regional tensions in sight, we believe the CBE will keep interest rates where they are until further notice,\u201d Ahmed says. Both Abdel Aal and Abu Basha expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 9 July.<\/p>\n

Still moving in the right direction:<\/strong> The latest reading is tracking comfortably below the CBE\u2019s revised forecast of 16-17% average inflation<\/a> for 2026, though it remains well above its official target range of 7% (\u00b12%) for 4Q 2026. The CBE has recently acknowledged that the disinflation process will take longer than initially anticipated as regional conflicts rewrite the rate path, with single-digit inflation now only expected in 2H 2027. For now, the May figures reinforce the view that inflation is moderating but not yet at a pace that would encourage a rate cut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly inflation accelerated from 1.1% to 1.6%, suggesting that price pressures have not fully dissipated<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":709379,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,271,104,72,182,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-709378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fabdee94-b556-41d8-a6d2-e41647916d28","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A 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The annual rate of inflation rose to 16.2% during the month from 15.0% in September, according to figures (pdf) released Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/194.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":663630,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/04\/13\/inflation-picks-up-in-march-snapping-months-long-downward-trend\/","url_meta":{"origin":709378,"position":4},"title":"Inflation picks up in March, snapping months-long downward trend","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 April 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation fell 0.8 percentage points from the month before","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/663.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":709378,"position":5},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=709378"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":709415,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/709378\/revisions\/709415"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/709373"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/709379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=709378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=709378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=709378"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=709378"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=709378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}