{"id":708565,"date":"2026-06-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=708565"},"modified":"2026-06-08T02:53:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T02:53:57","slug":"govt-lowers-medium-term-economic-growth-target-to-6-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/06\/08\/govt-lowers-medium-term-economic-growth-target-to-6-8\/","title":{"rendered":"Gov\u2019t lowers medium-term economic growth target to 6.8%"},"content":{"rendered":"

Regional wars and economic shocks have forced the government to temper <\/strong>its medium-term economic targets<\/strong>, lowering its growth target to 6.8% by FY 2029\/30, down from a previously targeted 7.5%, according to a government planning document reviewed by EnterpriseAM. The downward revision reflects the toll of Red Sea disruptions, falling Suez Canal revenues<\/a>, and global supply chain shocks.<\/p>\n

Why it matters:<\/strong> Call it a much-needed reality check that finally shelves the optimistic projections of the past<\/a>. The government\u2019s new \u201ccautious-ambitious\u201d scenario is essentially a tacit admission that ongoing regional conflicts and global inflation have made those older, loftier targets impossible to hit.<\/p>\n

\n

The revised numbers<\/p>\n

Growth and income: <\/strong>The government is now targeting real GDP growth of 5.4% in FY 2026\/27, compared to an estimated 5.2% in the current FY. Per capita real GDP is expected to grow by nearly 4% in FY 2026\/27, climbing to 5.4% by the end of the medium-term plan.<\/p>\n

Investment and savings: <\/strong>The government plans to gradually expand investment activity, projecting a 35.1% jump in total investments to EGP 4.17 tn in FY 2026\/27, up from an estimated EGP 3.1 tn in the current FY. This figure is expected to rise steadily to EGP 7.2 tn by the end of the medium-term period. This aims to raise the investment-to-GDP ratio from an estimated 14.5% to 17% in FY 2026\/27, eventually reaching 19.6% by FY 2029\/30. Meanwhile, the domestic savings rate is projected to jump from 10.5% to 14.6% by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT-<\/strong> Our gross domestic savings rate<\/a> collapsed to just 1.2% of GDP in FY 2024\/25, down from 6.1% a year earlier and a fraction of the 20-30% that high-growth emerging markets typically need to fund investment-led growth, veteran banker and EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal told EnterpriseAM earlier this month. In absolute terms, that\u2019s a fall from EGP 848 bn to EGP 218 bn in a single year.<\/p>\n

FX flows and trade:<\/strong> The strategy targets increasing net foreign direct investment to USD 13 bn in FY 2026\/27 and pushing it to USD 25 bn by FY 2029\/30. The government is also targeting an average annual growth rate of 13.3% for merchandise exports, alongside measures to rationalize imports.<\/p>\n

Social targets:<\/strong> The government aims to bring inflation down from approximately 19.9% in FY 2024\/25 to 9.3% in FY 2026\/27 before it settles at 6.9% by FY 2029\/30.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next:<\/strong> The revised framework lands in the Senate today before moving to the House for final review before the end of the month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ongoing regional conflicts and global economic shocks have forced the government to revise its medium-term economic targets down to 6.8%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":708566,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-708565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b165a0a5-5045-4607-8b1f-2fdbec96faf9","order":"6","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/383.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"A necessary reality check","related_issue":[708555],"teaser":"Ongoing regional conflicts and global economic shocks have forced the government to revise its medium-term economic targets down to 6.8%"},"yoast_head":"\nGov\u2019t lowers medium-term economic growth target to 6.8% - 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The ratings agency sees Egypt\u2019s growth surpassing the median for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/3365.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598689,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/finmin-to-set-new-medium-term-economic-targets-as-global-macro-headwinds-build\/","url_meta":{"origin":708565,"position":1},"title":"FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build: The Finance Ministry is on track to specify \u201cmore realistic\u201d medium-term targets for Egypt\u2019s key macro indicators in light of a challenging outlook for global growth and volatility in emerging markets, according to official documents seen by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578353,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/our-first-look-at-the-fy2023-2024-budget\/","url_meta":{"origin":708565,"position":2},"title":"Our first look at the FY2023-2024 budget","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is targeting a GDP growth of 5.5% in its draft budget for the next fiscal year","rel":"","context":"In "BUDGET WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"BUDGET WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/budget-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/514.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575512,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/18\/foreign-debt-is-leaving-emerging-markets-more-vulnerable-to-shocks-than-ever-before\/","url_meta":{"origin":708565,"position":3},"title":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before: Widening private debt, rapid monetary expansion and low-cost lending have left emerging markets with a much larger challenge in piecing together an economic recovery from covid-19 than they did during the global financial crisis, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/182.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582148,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill\/","url_meta":{"origin":708565,"position":4},"title":"Gov\u2019t to miss deficit, debt targets on higher rates, import bill","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is now predicting a debt level of 93.0% of GDP by June 2023","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Finance-Ministry-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596128,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/egypts-economy-expected-to-grow-6-8-annually-until-2027-says-harvard-center-for-international-development\/","url_meta":{"origin":708565,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy expected to grow 6.8% annually until 2027, says Harvard Center for International Development","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is forecast to grow at a 6.8% clip per year over the next 10 years, placing it among the top of the list of the fastest-growing economies until 2027, according to the Harvard Center for International Development\u2019s 2027 Growth Projections. 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