{"id":707890,"date":"2026-06-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=707890"},"modified":"2026-06-04T02:57:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T02:57:04","slug":"signs-that-global-economic-growth-could-take-a-serious-hit-due-to-us-iran-war-are-mounting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/06\/04\/signs-that-global-economic-growth-could-take-a-serious-hit-due-to-us-iran-war-are-mounting\/","title":{"rendered":"Signs that global economic growth could take a serious hit due to US-Iran war are mounting"},"content":{"rendered":"

Signs that the global economy is suffering from the fallout of the US-Iran war are <\/strong>growing<\/strong>, with the OECD saying in its latest outlook<\/a> that the global economy could face its worst slowdown in 40 years outside of the pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis if geopolitical tensions and disruptions continue into next year.<\/p>\n

Under a prolonged disruption scenario, OECD expects global growth to come in at 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027<\/strong> \u2014 a significant downgrade from its earlier projection of 3.1% growth next year. It also expects several economies to potentially tip into recession if disruptions persist. <\/p>\n

The energy shock is doing most of the damage.<\/strong> Crude oil prices rose more than 50% in the weeks following the outbreak of fighting, with gas prices spiking sharply across Europe and Asia and distillates \u2014 including jet fuel and diesel \u2014 surging alongside them.<\/p>\n

Global inflation could be 0.4 percentage points higher this year and 1.3 points higher in 2027 <\/strong>in a prolonged disruption scenario. <\/p>\n

At the same time<\/strong>, mns are at risk of losing their jobs in the EU, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. As many as 560k jobs could be cut this year due to the energy costs, while 600k jobs are already under pressure in the automotive industry.<\/p>\n

All of these data points are putting policymakers between a rock and a hard place. <\/strong>OECD expects some rate hikes this year, followed by rate cuts next year, in its scenario where the conflict resolves soon. <\/p>\n

The developing world is already acting fast<\/strong> despite the difficult balancing act of reining in inflation while preventing economic harm. At least 10 emerging- and frontier-market central banks have raised rates since fighting began in late February, including Indonesia, Rwanda, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, Bloomberg<\/a> reported elsewhere. <\/p>\n

As for the US Federal Reserve, some Fed policymakers are <\/strong>pushing for rate increases<\/a><\/strong>, saying they might be necessary to rein in mounting inflation. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50-3.75% range at its policy meeting in two weeks, but some traders are already placing a more than 60% chance<\/a> that a rate hike could come in July. <\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

A<\/strong>sian markets open<\/strong>ed lower<\/strong>, tracking losses felt across Wall Street a day earlier as a fresh wave of attacks across the Middle East spooked investors. South Korea\u2019s Kospi is down some 2%, while Japan\u2019s Nikkei is looking at losses of 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are also in the red. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52,564<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +25.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.88<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 52.02<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.87<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.97<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,002<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,582<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -4.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,686<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: -6.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,554<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +10.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,332<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,054<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +4.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 97.18<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,481<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 65,284<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.2% (YTD: -25.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,050<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.10<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.06<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8% (YTD: +7.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30<\/strong> fell 0.7% at <\/strong>yesterday\u2019s<\/strong> close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 9.8 bn (21% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Kima (+3.4%), Arabian Cement (+2.6%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+2.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Heliopolis Housing (-3.1%), Beltone Holding (-2.5%), and E-Finance (-2.0%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The OECD warns of the worst slowdown in decades, barring the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis, if disruptions persist<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":707891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[104,72,119,349,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-707890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e66d8d6a-76c7-4248-837f-7c3a24cb273f","order":"12","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/286.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The warning lights are flashing","related_issue":[707870],"teaser":"The OECD warns of the worst slowdown in decades, barring the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis, if disruptions persist"},"yoast_head":"\nSigns that global economic growth could take a serious hit due to US-Iran war are mounting - 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