{"id":703856,"date":"2026-05-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/05\/19\/ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions-2\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:00:00","slug":"ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/05\/19\/ebrd-hints-at-likely-growth-downgrade-as-egypt-ranks-as-its-fourth-most-war-vulnerable-regions-2\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD hints at likely growth downgrade as Egypt ranks as its fourth most war vulnerable regions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egypt ranks fourth among most vulnerable <\/strong>EBRD <\/strong>regions to the war on Iran<\/strong>, with impacts felt through a combination of surging energy prices, disrupted trade, and a debt-servicing burden increasing fiscal pressure, according to a new research note (pdf)<\/a> from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The country was behind only Lebanon in first place, Jordan, and Iraq.<\/p>\n

The war is beginning to filter down to revised-down growth forecasts<\/strong>, with a welcome flurry of improved GDP growth predictions in recent months coming to an abrupt halt. For its part, the EBRD cautions that the \u201cgrowth forecast for the EBRD regions is likely to be revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d in its June update if energy prices were to remain elevated.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s position as a net energy exporter is proving punishing to the wallet<\/strong>, with Brent crude surpassing USD 100 \/ bbl and LNG witnessing significant price increases. But this won\u2019t just be felt in the state\u2019s energy import bill or at the pump, with the report warning that knock-on effects from this if prices remain high and disruptions to metals and chemicals potentially leading to a more than 1.5 percentage point increase in global inflation.<\/p>\n

Why this matters: <\/strong>For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months. The price of oil \u201cmight reach USD 180 per barrel if Gulf oil remains largely off-market\u201d and the region\u2019s importance in the LNG trade should lead to similar increases for this energy source that Egypt has increasingly relied on in recent years to bridge the gap between the supply and demand, further pushing up the country\u2019s energy import bill.<\/p>\n

But even with a welcome quick end to the war, gas prices are still expected to remain<\/strong> high<\/strong> as \u201cas European and Asian buyers scramble to refill storage while LNG production takes weeks to restart,\u201d according to the report. A lot also depends on how damaged energy infrastructure in the region is when the war ends and how long it takes to first repair and then restart operations \u2014 a particularly lengthy process for LNG facilities.<\/p>\n

The steady increase in remittances we\u2019ve been seeing could also be negatively affected<\/strong> \u2014 but it\u2019s too early to tell. <\/strong>Although \u201cremittance flows tend to remain stable in times of crises,\u201d the longer-term concern is that \u201cprolonged conflict could reduce demand for foreign labour in the GCC economies.\u201d Remittances, which rose 40.5% y-o-y to USD 41.5 bn in 2025, have become an increasingly part of the country\u2019s hard currency inflows that helped counter the drop off in Suez Canal revenues in 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":703857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[571,104,93,348,6984,91],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-703856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-ebrd","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-gdp","tag-middle-east-politics","tag-oil-and-gas","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"cc0549e8-2def-41b5-8bc5-492642c4e7dd","order":"8","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/152.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"EBRD warns Egypt faces high vulnerability as Iran war stokes fiscal pressure","related_issue":[703842],"teaser":"For net-energy importers like Egypt, the real concern is that this war and energy disruptions will drag on for months"},"yoast_head":"\nEBRD hints at likely growth downgrade as Egypt ranks as its fourth most war vulnerable regions - 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The EBRD now sees overall growth across its seven regions slowing to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/138.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586788,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/17\/ebrd-downgrades-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":703856,"position":2},"title":"EBRD downgrades Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD forecasts growth slowing to 4% for FY 2022-23","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/963.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":581157,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/21\/ebrd-predicts-slower-egypt-growth-in-2023\/","url_meta":{"origin":703856,"position":3},"title":"EBRD predicts slower Egypt growth in 2023","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The bank now sees 4.6% growth this year.","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/ebrd-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545515,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/03\/ebrd-trims-egypts-growth-outlook-for-2022-finmin-mulling-price-of-oil-in-2022-2023-budget\/","url_meta":{"origin":703856,"position":4},"title":"EBRD trims Egypt\u2019s growth outlook for 2022 + FinMin mulling price of oil in 2022-2023 budget","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EBRD trims Egypt 2022 growth outlook on inflation concerns: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Egypt\u2019s 2022 growth outlook due to rising food and energy price inflation caused by the conflict in Ukraine. The lender expects the economy to grow at a 3.1% clip this year,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "WAR WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"WAR WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/war-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/82.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597944,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/09\/stalling-foreign-investment-and-lack-of-competitiveness-key-risks-to-egyptian-economic-growth-ebrd\/","url_meta":{"origin":703856,"position":5},"title":"Stalling foreign investment and lack of competitiveness key risks to Egyptian economic growth- EBRD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Stalling foreign investment, high inflation are key risks to Egyptian economic growth- EBRD: A lack of foreign investment, persistent high inflation and the recent appreciation of the EGP are key risks to the Egyptian economy, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has said. 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