{"id":702758,"date":"2026-05-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=702758"},"modified":"2026-05-17T02:42:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T02:42:04","slug":"analysts-expect-cbe-to-keep-interest-rates-steady-on-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/05\/17\/analysts-expect-cbe-to-keep-interest-rates-steady-on-thursday\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts expect CBE to keep interest rates steady on Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt will likely keep interest rates on <\/strong>hold for the second consecutive time<\/strong> when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to 10 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM. Experts suggest that the CBE is taking a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d approach, noting the need to keep inflation expectations anchored amid elevated global energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. <\/p>\n

Overall, inflation is cooling, but not enough:<\/strong> Nine out of the 10 participants expect the CBE to maintain rates at 19% on deposits and 20% on lending. The consensus is that while price pressures eased last month, inflation remains almost double the CBE\u2019s 7% (\u00b12%) target, so there\u2019s little justification for resuming the easing cycle that was paused in April.<\/p>\n

Annual urban inflation eased 0.3 percentage points to <\/strong>14.9% y-o-y in April<\/a><\/strong> \u2014<\/strong> the first decline in three months and a full point below the 15.9% consensus from 14 analysts polled by Reuters.<\/p>\n

\u201cInflation rates, while reasonable, are still shadowed by high uncertainty<\/strong>,\u201d EFG Hermes chief economist Mohamed Abu Basha says, expecting the CBE to stick to its cautionary stance. CI Capital and economist Ahmed Shawky also anticipate a hold scenario until there is further confirmation of a sustainable path to disinflation.<\/p>\n

The CBE <\/strong>recently raised its headline inflation<\/a><\/strong> target<\/strong> to an average of 16-17% in 2026<\/strong> \u2014 well above the 11% projected in the 4Q 2025 report \u2014 and 12-13% in 2027. According to the latest Monetary Policy Report, inflation will stay above the 7% (\u00b12%) target range through 4Q 2026, and single-digit readings are no longer expected before 2H 2027.<\/p>\n

The ramifications of regional war continue. <\/strong>\u201cThere are also expectations that the strait [of Hormuz] crisis will create additional pressure on the prices of plastics and a wide range of raw materials and input,\u201d Thndr\u2019s Esraa Ahmed tells EnterpriseAM. She attributes the April dip to a peak in poultry prices in previous months, and warns: \u201cThe risks are still high. The CBE\u2019s recent quarterly report revised inflation forecasts upward\u2026 In this climate, I don't see them considering a cut anytime soon.\u201d<\/p>\n

No case for a hike:<\/strong> \u201cThe case for a preemptive policy rate hike is weak as downward pressures on the EGP are easing,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Hany Genena tells us. He notes that the probability of a US-Iran agreement has increased since the ceasefire entered into force and that a \u201chigh real rate buffer of around 5% provides the MPC with ample room for a wait-and-see approach.\u201d<\/p>\n

Quiet seas, for now. <\/strong>London-based economist Ali Metwally lays out three scenarios but sees \u201cstability\u201d as the baseline. \u201cThe logical move is to wait for inflation to hit the 11-12% mark in 3Q or 4Q before considering a gradual 1-3% cut,\u201d he says. However, he warns of a \u201ccontingency plan\u201d where the CBE might be forced to hike rates \u2014 not just hold them \u2014 if a fresh geopolitical shock hits the EGP or energy prices again.<\/p>\n

And oil remains a problem. <\/strong>\u201cThe Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee will likely approve a 10% increase in diesel and gasoline prices in late May\/June due to the q-o-q surge in average Brent expressed in EGP terms by nearly 40%,\u201d Genena says. Beltone Holding\u2019s Ahmed Hafez agrees: \u201cWith the Middle East conflict still weighing heavily on energy and some commodity prices, we believe risks are skewed to the upside.\u201d<\/p>\n

The outlier:<\/strong> Ehab Said is the only analyst in our poll to suggest a potential move upward. While he believes a \u201chold\u201d is the most likely outcome, he argues that a 1% hike would be the \u201ccorrect\u201d decision. \u201cThe announced inflation figures do not reflect reality; actual inflation has exceeded 20%,\u201d Said claims. He expects inflation to exceed 15% in May following recent hikes in telecommunication prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nine out of 10 analysts polled by EnterpriseAM expect the CBE to keep interest rates steady for the second consecutive time amid heightened inflation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":702759,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-702758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"243abb6e-b1a2-4ccf-96a4-7c80f6c59a06","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/2177.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Playing 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