{"id":701504,"date":"2026-05-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=701504"},"modified":"2026-05-12T02:52:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T02:52:55","slug":"cbe-says-single-digit-inflation-unlikely-till-2h-2027-as-war-reshapes-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/05\/12\/cbe-says-single-digit-inflation-unlikely-till-2h-2027-as-war-reshapes-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE says single-digit inflation unlikely till 2H 2027 as war reshapes outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pause for thought: <\/strong>The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s 1Q 2026 Monetary Policy Report<\/a>(pdf)<\/a> paints a more cautious picture of the economy as escalating regional conflict reshapes inflation expectations and weighs on growth. Here are the takeaways.<\/p>\n

\n

War rewrites the rate path<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s wait and see:<\/strong> The CBE held rates<\/a> at its April meeting, effectively pausing its easing cycle after a cumulative 825 bps in cuts since April 2025. The bank has adopted a \u201cwait-and-see approach\u201d to ensure policy stays restrictive enough to anchor inflation expectations while maintaining a positive real interest rate margin.<\/p>\n

Disinflation is off track. <\/strong>The US-Iran conflict has significantly altered the global and domestic outlook. The energy shock \u201cdisrupted the relative stability inflation had seen recently and slowed down its downward path,\u201d the CBE says in the report. Brent crude briefly crossed USD 100 \/ bbl<\/a> in mid-March for the first time in over four years.<\/p>\n\n

The two big revisions<\/p>\n

Sharp rise in revised inflation outlook: <\/strong>The CBE now sees headline inflation averaging 16-17% in 2026 \u2014 well above the 11% projected in the 4Q 2025 report \u2014 and 12-13% in 2027. Inflation will stay above the 7% (\u00b12%) target range through 4Q 2026, and single-digit prints are no longer expected before 2H 2027.<\/p>\n

Growth is losing momentum. <\/strong>GDP growth is now projected at 4.9% in FY 2025\/26 (down from a previous forecast of 5.1%) and 4.8% in FY 2026\/27 (from 5.5%), with the downgrade primarily driven by lower expected contributions from tourism and the Suez Canal. The bank has pushed back its Suez recovery timeline to 1Q 2027 from 3Q 2026.<\/p>\n

\n

Two things going right<\/p>\n

Buffers are working. <\/strong>Remittances from Egyptians working abroad hit a record USD 11.3 bn in 4Q 2025, up 29% y-o-y, and net foreign reserves climbed to USD 52.8 bn by end-March 2026 \u2014 leaving us entering the shock of war repercussions with stronger external buffers than in previous crises, the CBE writes.<\/p>\n

The rate cuts are reaching the banking system.<\/strong> Around 96% of the CBE's cumulative cuts since April 2025 have flowed through to interbank lending rates, which are the rates banks charge each other. Rate cuts are the first stop on the way to cheaper credit for businesses and households. High transmission means the easing cycle is working as designed \u2014 low transmission would mean the cuts were stuck somewhere in the system.<\/p>\n

\n

Our take<\/p>\n

Higher for longer is now the operating frame. <\/strong>The CBE reiterated its commitment to restoring price stability but warned inflation risks will remain heightened if regional tensions persist. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Single-digit inflation is no longer expected before the second half of 2027<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":701505,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,348,182,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-701504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"747b177f-13a3-43a5-a90c-b7e065853f29","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/1\/1147.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"CBE\u2019s wait and see","related_issue":[701496],"teaser":"Single-digit inflation is no longer expected before the second half of 2027"},"yoast_head":"\nCBE says single-digit inflation unlikely till 2H 2027 as war reshapes outlook - 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The return to easing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":701504,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/05\/cbe-keeps-rates-on-hold-in-surprise-move\/","url_meta":{"origin":701504,"position":5},"title":"CBE keeps rates on hold in surprise move","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE unexpectedly holds interest rates steady in its first meeting of the year: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, defying expectations of a third consecutive hike. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 16.25%, the lending rate at 17.25%, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/66.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/701504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=701504"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/701504\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":701540,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/701504\/revisions\/701540"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/701496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/701505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=701504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=701504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=701504"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=701504"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=701504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}