{"id":694757,"date":"2026-04-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=694757"},"modified":"2026-04-19T04:01:45","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T04:01:45","slug":"markets-seem-to-discount-war-related-risk-with-record-rallies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/19\/markets-seem-to-discount-war-related-risk-with-record-rallies\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets seem to discount war-related risk with record rallies"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0US stocks <\/strong>surge<\/a><\/strong>d<\/a><\/strong> Friday fueled by optimism over a Lebanon ceasefire and Iran\u2019s (temporary) declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was fully operational. <\/strong>The Nasdaq climbed 1.5%, marking its 13th straight gain and its longest winning streak in decades. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, crossing the 7.1k threshold for the very first time.<\/p>\n

Closer to home, the DFM also <\/strong>ended the week in the green<\/a><\/strong>. <\/strong>Dubai\u2019s main share index climbed around 1% to a six-week high at Friday\u2019s close, driven by gains in real estate and financial stocks. Abu Dhabi\u2019s index was flat.<\/p>\n

Asian markets <\/strong>retreated on Friday<\/a><\/strong>, failing to follow Wall Street\u2019s momentum. Investor sentiment across the Asia-Pacific region was weighed down by a cautious outlook on the conflict in our neck of the woods. Japan\u2019s Nikkei shed 1.8% on Friday, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi slipped 0.6%.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s behind this? <\/strong>It appears that investors are \u201cmoving beyond this conflict,\u201d Ameriprise Financial\u2019s chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene told CNBC. \u201cI think the market has walked back the worst-case scenarios, and it sees a path for the US and Iran to end the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz to remain open. As long as that remains the most likely path, then markets will discount it.\u201d<\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n

Market optimism may prove short-lived<\/strong>, especially considering Tehran\u2019s move to close the contested waterway<\/a> once again. Ongoing uncertainty masks a harsher reality of fractured supply chains and crippled infrastructure, fueling anxiety among energy producers, logistics providers, and consumers alike, the Washington Post reported over the weekend. \u201cThe people closest to the [energy] industry are far more concerned about these disruptions and recognize the length of time it will take for things to return to normal \u2014 if they ever do,\u201d oil and gas -cochair at law firm Baker Botts told the outlet.<\/p>\n

Even options traders are now racing to position for gains in tech stocks<\/strong>, after earlier sell-offs left them underexposed. Tech stocks, in particular, are currently undervalued, with the premium for the Magnificent Seven narrowing to near eight-year lows in comparison to the broader S&P 500.<\/p>\n

A part of this could also be that markets priced in a lot more than what has actually happened earlier in the conflict<\/strong>, CNBC\u2019s Jim Cramer said<\/a>. The fact that interest rates have not spiked as some had expected has helped reassure investors, he added<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But policymakers believe markets are underestimating the potential fallout of the war \u2014 even if it ends soon.<\/strong> When asked if markets need to be more wary, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said: \u201cI would argue, yes, because what we see in supply chain disruptions is already quite significant.\u201d<\/p>\n

The issue is not just what\u2019s happening right now, but the economic fallout expected after the war concludes<\/strong>, which, according to economists, will be severe. The IMF just last week slashed its global growth forecast<\/a> by 0.3 percentage points and hiked its inflation forecast by 0.7 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51,438<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +23.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 51.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 51.82<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,554<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,921<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,987<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: -1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,126<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.2% (YTD: +3.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,668<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +7.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,058<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.1% (YTD: +4.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 90.38<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-9.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.67<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,880<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 75,761<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.9% (YTD: -13.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,040<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +4.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.6% (YTD: +20.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 1.4% at Thursday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 12.3 bn (81.3% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 23.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Orascom Investment Holding (+9.0%), Eastern Company (+4.9%), and Palm Hills Developments (+4.7%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Arabian Cement (-1.5%), Raya Holding (-1.1%), and AMOC (-1.1%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stocks around the world are rallying, but policymakers think markets are discounting the economic fallout of the war<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":694758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[102,72,119,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-694757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-capital-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a139cf4c-1f50-4663-8b63-7b05b4159e39","order":"9","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/842.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Is the war over? 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