{"id":693564,"date":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/?p=693564"},"modified":"2026-04-15T04:25:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T04:25:08","slug":"imf-slashes-down-gdp-forecasts-globally-with-dispersed-war-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2026\/04\/15\/imf-slashes-down-gdp-forecasts-globally-with-dispersed-war-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF slashes down GDP forecasts globally with dispersed war scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Egypt\u2019s GDP forecast to 4.2% in 2026,<\/strong> a 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January projection, according to its latest World Economic Outlook: the Shadow of War<\/a>pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The fund has revised down its overall global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 from the 3.4% projected in January. <\/strong>Without the war, the IMF says global growth would have actually been revised upward due to strong technology investment and resilient productivity resulting from AI adoption.<\/p>\n

Global inflation forecast has also been raised by 0.7% to 4.4% in 2026,<\/strong> citing a double-tap of higher energy and food prices. Consequently, the likelihood of maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended duration remains more persistent than indicated by the October 2025 projections.<\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s \u201cadverse scenario\u201d sees the global economy slashed by 0.8 percentage points off global growth in 2026,<\/strong> dragging it down to 2.5%, while sending headline inflation to 5.4%. This scenario envisions the global economy choked by a sudden 80% spike in oil prices and a 160% surge in Asian and European gas prices.<\/p>\n

The real danger lies in the IMF\u2019s \u201csevere scenario.\u201d<\/strong> This scenario outlines a roadmap to a global recession, which will see a persistent 100% surge in oil prices in 2Q of 2026 and a 200% spike in gas prices would choke global growth down to just 2.0% \u2014 this was seen only during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. The impact is structurally deeper and more persistent, with inflation rising to 6.1% by 2027, forcing the Fed to hike rates by 100 bps.<\/p>\n

The real pain is in the credit markets:<\/strong> In the IMF\u2019s darker scenarios, emerging markets (excluding China) face a violent repricing of risk. Sovereign spreads are projected to widen by up to 100 bps, while corporate premiums could jump by as much as 200 bps. This effectively freezes the capital flows MENA firms rely on for survival. Unlike previous crises, central banks won\u2019t have the luxury of cutting rates to support growth, and instead, they will be forced into \u201cmandatory tightening\u201d to anchor inflation expectations, leaving the private sector to navigate a high-cost, low-liquidity environment alone.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE\u2013 The MENA region faces the most significant downgrade of 2.8 percentage points to 1.1% growth rate in 2026,<\/strong> from a previous forecast of 3.9%, highlighting a hardening regional divide amid war.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING-<\/p>\n

Asian markets felt the signs of diplomatic engagement by regional and global powers. Japan\u2019s Nikkei rose around 0.6%, South Korea\u2019s Kospi gained 2.8%, and MSCI\u2019s broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares \u2014 excluding Japan \u2014 reached its highest level in six weeks. US futures are broadly trading flat.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49,979<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8% (YTD: +19.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 52.44<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 52.57<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

USD (CIB<\/strong>) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 52.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 52.55<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.00% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.00% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,486<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: +9.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,840<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,720<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: -5.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,886<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,609<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,985<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: +3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 94.61<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,871<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 74,370<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -15.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,033<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: +23.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.03% (YTD: +7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.36<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.0% (YTD: +22.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 1.8% yesterday<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 9.1 bn (35.3% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 19.5% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Egypt Aluminum(+6.6%), Misr Cement (+6.6%), and Raya Holding (+6.3%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Arabian Dement (-5.3%), Valmore Holding (-1.5%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-0.8%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MENA region sees the most significant slip by a 2.8 percentage points down from 3.9%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":693565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,272,122],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-693564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"773e4d0b-57c2-455e-aad5-754fe7e81a85","order":"13","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/665.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The IMF just cut our growth forecast to 4.2% for this year","related_issue":[693544],"teaser":"MENA region sees the most significant slip by a 2.8 percentage points down from 3.9%","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nIMF slashes down GDP forecasts globally with dispersed war scenarios - 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The Fund revised downwards its growth projections for 2022 and 2023 to 3.6% in its latest World Economic Outlook \u2014 that\u2019s 0.8\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/335.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546048,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/imf-expects-slimmer-narrowing-of-egypts-budget-deficit-this-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":693564,"position":1},"title":"IMF expects slimmer narrowing of Egypt\u2019s budget deficit this fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6.8% by the end of the current fiscal year, the IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). This is 0.5 percentage points higher than the IMF\u2019s previous forecast for FY 2021-2022, which penciled in a 6.3% deficit. The deficit stood\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/353.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548131,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/27\/imf-is-gloomy-and-uncertain-on-global-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":693564,"position":2},"title":"IMF is \u201cgloomy and uncertain\u201d on global economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has revised downwards its global growth outlook for this year and next, warning that gathering headwinds are pushing the world closer to recession. In its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday, the Fund cut its 2022 forecast by 0.4 percentage points and now sees the global growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/281.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550050,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/12\/price-pressures-likely-to-trigger-recession-next-year-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":693564,"position":3},"title":"Price pressures likely to trigger recession next year -IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects more than a third of the global economy to contract \u201cthis year or next,\u201d it warns in its October World Economic Outlook (pdf) released yesterday. The Fund maintained its global GDP forecast of 3.2% for this year but is less optimistic about next year, when it expects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":590804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/07\/26\/imf-sees-lower-growth-sharply-higher-inflation-in-egypt-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":693564,"position":4},"title":"IMF sees lower growth, sharply higher inflation in Egypt next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fund expects growth to slow to 3.7% this year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559609,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/27\/egypts-gdp-to-grow-2-8-this-fy-imf-is-out-with-a-more-optimistic-global-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":693564,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s GDP to grow 2.8% this FY + IMF is out with a more optimistic global forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 2.8% clip in FY2020-2021, according to a Reuterspoll of economists. This is a downwards revision from the 3.3% growth economists predicted in the last poll the newswire conducted in October. The forecast sits at the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s most recent GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/343.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=693564"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693564\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":693630,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/693564\/revisions\/693630"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/693544"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/693565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=693564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=693564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=693564"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=693564"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=693564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}